As we approach fantasy football draft season, I urge our readers to keep an open mind on the many different methods for constructing a team they can feel confident in.
Plenty of approaches have sprung up over the last decade. There is punting the running back position entirely until later in the draft to focus on a strong receiving core in PPR formats (zero RB). There’s also selecting one top-tier running back who will solidify the position until you return to it much later after other slots have been filled (anchor/hero RB).
Another such method is the “Late-Round QB” strategy, where managers focus on the FLEX-eligible positions (RB/WR/TE) before selecting a quarterback towards the tail end of the draft.
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Late-Round QB Strategy (2024 Fantasy Football)
The “late-round QB” strategy is not without its risks and rewards. It’s based on the concept that beyond the top three to four quarterbacks, the per-game average point total between the QB5-QB15 is so close that it’s more beneficial to strengthen the other positions with depth, particularly at running back, where injuries are common. Understanding the strategy’s implications can help readers make more informed decisions when drafting their fantasy football teams.
Taking 2023 as an example, Josh Allen (24.2 FPTS/G), Jalen Hurts (21.9), Dak Prescott (20.7) and Lamar Jackson (21.1) were head and shoulders ahead of the field at the quarterback position. Managers who had any of those options on their team enjoyed a distinct advantage over the rest of the field. Conversely, aside from Prescott, they were also ranked as top options at the position entering last year, so (barring an unexpected fall) their managers paid a premium for their services.
From QB5 (Jordan Love at 19.4 FPTS/G) down to QB18 (Justin Fields at 18.4), the difference was near-negligible, and it included plenty of actual breakout options that afforded fantasy managers the luxury of looking elsewhere in the middle rounds of their drafts. This territory included names such as Brock Purdy (19.2), Jared Goff (18.4), Fields and C.J. Stroud (18.7), all of which were ranked as double-digit options. This trend of a “select few” top tier followed by a lengthy second tier has been proven multiple seasons in a row.
The notion is simple – either pay the premium for one of the top three to four choices and hope they pan out, giving you a slight statistical advantage (typically between six to eight points each week), or address the position later and solidify it with multiple upside options.
2024 Late-Round QB Targets
So, which quarterbacks are worth targeting in 2024 based on this idea, and how long should you wait before you pounce?
To start, let us discard the top-10 options at the position (as currently ranked in late April): Allen, Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Jackson, Stroud, Anthony Richardson, Joe Burrow, Prescott, Kyler Murray and Love. Based on their current ADP, that will afford you almost the first-100 selections in a standard-size league to target purely RB, WR and TE options.
Though training camp reports, injuries, and other variables may change things in the future, there are currently two groupings based on early ADP data.
The first cluster of QB11-QB15 (Justin Herbert, Purdy, Goff, Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence) is selected between picks 87-96, and the second cluster of QB16-20 (Kirk Cousins, Caleb Williams, Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers and Jayden Daniels) occurs between picks 100-113.
Understanding that we already accept the inherent risk of waiting for slightly inferior talent at the position, I wouldn’t want to exacerbate things further by selecting a rookie quarterback or a player who is actively learning a new playbook. That leaves us with Purdy, Goff, Tagovailoa, Lawrence, Stafford and Aaron Rodgers.
Brock Purdy (SF)
The first three quarterbacks listed are in situations where multiple top-tier options at other positions surround them. Purdy has arguably the best-supporting cast of the three (Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle and rookie Ricky Pearsall).
Still, his minimal volume of attempts (444 last year placed him 20th in the league) caps his upside. Yet, he remains the safest of the three options, with the highest floor.
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)
Tagovailoa also has plenty of weapons around him in Miami (Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert, De’Von Achane and rookie Jaylen Wright). The Miami offense is based on a “quick strike” attack, where one missed tackle by the defense could result in a touchdown. He led the NFL in passing yards last year (4,624) and finished just ninth in attempts.
Still, a sharp rise in turnovers the previous year is something to keep an eye on. Fourteen interceptions and 13 fumbles (five lost) is concerning, coupled with his injury history. Tagovailoa has the highest upside of the three options, with the lowest floor.
Jared Goff (DET)
Finally, we have Goff, or the “Baby Bear,” in the Goldilocks comparison. The former No. 1 overall pick ranked second in the league with 605 passing attempts last year and finished as a top-five option in completions, touchdown passes, YDS/G and completion percentage.
With an offense centered upon a devastating play-action attack, Goff will continue to pepper both Amon -Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta with targets, checking down to David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs when necessary. He is a wonderful combination of several traits: a proven veteran on a playoff-bound team with a track record of success, currently ranked outside of the top 10 at the position.
Goff isn’t the flashiest name out there, but for managers who are looking to exercise the “late-round QB” strategy, look no further.
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