Should you buy or sell AP at this point?

Wow, that was brutal. For those of you who made it through Week 2 unscathed consider yourselves lucky as there were more than enough fantasy relevant injuries to go around. To name a few, we had Adrian Peterson (leg), Danny Woodhead (knee – out for the season), Doug Martin (hamstring), Thomas Rawls (leg), Jonathan Stewart (hamstring), Arian Foster (groin) and Julio Jones (calf) – again, just to name a few. As you can see, many of the big name injuries were running backs (2016 seems to be picking up where ’15 left off), so that position proves to be a hot commodity on the waiver wire. Guys like Jerick McKinnon, Jay Ajayi and Fozzy Whittaker (or Cameron Artis-Payne) will most likely be gone by the time you read this, but, you never really know until you see for yourself. Often, players go overlooked for a multitude of reasons, so if you’re in search of free talent, it’s not too late to check out our Waiver Wire: Week 3 Rankings to see who the experts like the most – maybe you’ll get lucky!

Import your team for free to get waiver wire advice

Now that we’ve directed the waiver wire crowd away, the rest of us can focus on trades. Many owners tend to be reluctant to trade away their talent soon after an injury. Whether it’s for good reasons like needing time for the severity of injuries to become clear, or bad, like feeling pot committed on a player, people are just hard to deal with after their rock solid future cracks or comes tumbling down (shocking, I know). Instead, they will look first to the waiver in hopes of acquiring a band-aid that usually takes the form of their injured player’s handcuff. This isn’t a bad strategy, but the point is that the injured player is not always the one to target. Irrationally high demands are common roadblocks in such situations, so, if you encounter similar obstacles, turn your sites to a different player on the same fantasy team. Work the 2-for-1 deals, try to offer something to help fill the new void in their roster and, general, see if you can turn an unfortunate week for many into a prosperous one for yourself.

BUY

Todd Gurley (RB – LA)

The Rams have looked like a hot mess so far as they were shut out by San Francisco in Week 1, with a score of 0-28 and then barely put up enough to beat an offensively challenged Seahawks team nine to three. To be fair, the Seattle win wasn’t an easy accomplishment, but overall, Los Angeles is currently underwhelming its new home crowd. Their dominant rushing attack is being thwarted by seemingly single-minded defenses fixated with stopping the run and content to let Case Keenum try to do whatever it is he’s been trying to do. This line of defense has proven to be problematic for Gurley, and concerns about his season are rightfully beginning to surface. He’s one of the few lead backs struggling without the crutch of an injury to help preserve hope. Owners may start to notice systemic problems with Gurley’s offense and be ready to take a hit on their top pick.

There’s a good chance those owners are, to some extent, correct, in that Gurley may not be the dominant fantasy back we all thought he would be this season, but it’s doubtful he’ll lose many touches because of it. In this case, little has to do with the talent of the player – most of the blame can be placed elsewhere. If the slow start is indeed indicative of a down season for Gurley, his value will probably fall to that of a low RB1 or high RB2 or, depending on the matchup. Even if one could make a case for him rebounding next week and reclaiming his top spot among running backs, it would be foolish to propose a trade that communicated such confidences when you should be able to get him for cheap. Try to target Gurley as if he were a RB2 commodity, and if a one-for-one trade seems too transparent, try the distraction of a two-for-one deal.

Melvin Gordon (RB – SD)

After a full year in the league without seeing the end zone, Gordon finally scored his first touchdown in Week 1 against Kansas City. He went on to score once more in that game and then follow it up with another touchdown in Week 2. Gordon also managed to set career highs in total yards and number of carries that week, so it’s safe to say he’s off to a hot start. The entire San Diego offense has looked good to start the season as Gordon, Rivers, Woodhead, Travis Benjamin and Tyrell Williams have all recorded at least one impressive performance so far this season. The season-ending injury to Keenan Allen was a tough pill to swallow for owners but, for those paying attention, Williams has been a worthwhile addition.

Actually, the entire San Diego offense has looked good to start the season as Gordon, Rivers, Woodhead, Travis Benjamin and Tyrell Williams have all recorded at least one impressive performance so far this season. The season-ending injury to Keenan Allen was a tough pill to swallow for owners but, for those paying attention, Williams has been a worthwhile addition and should continue to thrive as one of Rivers’ primary targets capable of lining up in the slot or as an outside receiver.

An injury to such a key receiver as Allen was to the Chargers isn’t always beneficial to the team’s lead back as it can often put too much pressure on the run game, causing a team to become one dimensional. Just look at how Todd Gurley and Adrian Peterson (before his injury) fared when all of the defense’s attention was on them. Luckily for Gordon and the rest of the Chargers, however, Rivers can and will throw to anyone, and the success of both Benjamin and Allen in the passing game has allowed Gordon to continue to take advantage of an open field. Both he and Woodhead looked to be an exciting backfield tandem until the latter became the next guy to join Allen and Stevie Johnson with a season-ending injury.

If losing their star wide receiver wasn’t enough, going on to also lose one of the most effective change of pace backs in the league in Danny Woodhead must have caused even the most faithful of fans to doubt. He went down in the first quarter against Jacksonville, but the Chargers didn’t let it phase them as they eventually cruised to a 38-14 win. And to anyone wondering how it affected Gordon’s game, the second-year back ended up recording 102 rushing yards on 24 attempts (both, as mentioned earlier, are career highs), one touchdown and 18 yards on three receptions. Because he has such a capable quarterback at the helm, the recent injuries have yet to disrupt the offense in any extreme way. Gordon will be relied on more heavily than anyone could have guessed coming into the season, but it isn’t likely to reach such a degree as to become dysfunctional. For that reason, Gordon’s heavy workload and, as a result, early success, should continue throughout the season. Tough matchups may prove to be even harder with such a shallow talent pool on offense, but overall, Gordon is a player worth targeting if you can beat all the hype.

SELL

Matt Forte (RB – NYJ)

Commonly criticized this year as a risky fantasy pick due to his long injury history and the possibility of a timeshare with Bilal Powell, Matt Forte was drafted as the 16th running back and 38th overall player according to our consensus ADP data.  Well, the injuries (knock on wood) have yet to manifest, and Powell has totaled just 51 yards (43 rushing and eight receiving) so far. As a result, Forte has racked up 196 yards rushing, 68 yards receiving and three touchdowns to make him, among running backs, second only to DeAngelo Williams. For a guy many thought was on his way out, Forte’s stock is soaring, but, with that being said, it’s hard to envision such success lasting for much longer. If Forte remains healthy, there’s reason to believe he will continue as a top-10 back or better, but expecting a top-3 finish out of him is asking too much. When you also take into account a Jets’ schedule that should be tough against the run and Forte’s affinity for the sidelines, it becomes apparent that now is a great time to try and sell high on the 30-year-old veteran.

HOLD

C.J. Anderson (RB – DEN)

Anderson’s situation is a lot like Forte’s in that he’s an injury prone back coming off a disappointing last season who has surprised many with an unexpectedly hot start after two weeks. Anderson, over the off-season, also dealt with some backfield pressure in Devontae Booker and Ronnie Hillman (since released), and while neither posed a realistic threat to Anderson’s lead back duties, Booker does represent an ever lurking talented second option. The main difference (other than age – Anderson is only 25 compared to Forte who turns 31 in December), however, between Anderson and Forte, is their schedule. Over the next few weeks, Denver will complete a relatively soft five-game set, regarding opponent’s rushing defense, whereas Denver will complete one of, if not the most difficult, stretches for that same category. Anderson plays Cincinnati next, followed by Tampa Bay, Atlanta and San Diego, so it’d be a safe bet to assume continued success given he remains healthy. That big if is the main reason Anderson isn’t a great buy candidate right now as his stock is too high, but, for that exact reason, he does make for a good hold. The more fantasy wins he can string together, the stronger his trade value will seem to others, so try and keep him for at least one more week until you start making real efforts to cash in.

Adrian Peterson (RB – MIN)

It shouldn’t come as a surprise to see Peterson on the injured list, but it’s probably safe to say most didn’t expect it to happen this soon. One of the greatest running backs of all time was coming off one of the most successful seasons of his nine-year career, poised to rack up another age-defying campaign until he tore the meniscus in his right knee during the second half of Minnesota’s big win over Green Bay. The timetable for his return is still up in the air. Depending on which recovery route Peterson and the Vikings choose to take, he could be ready to go for Week 3 or could end up missing upwards of 10 weeks. It all depends on whether or not he has surgery and, if so, how much work has to be done.

Last week I had Peterson as a buy candidate (hold if you already had him), and advised not to give up too much because of his reliability issues stemming from the combination of a deep injury history and Minnesota’s current troubles with the run game. The idea was that, while he’s always an injury risk, the upside of a healthy Adrian Peterson is simply too high to sell low this early in the season. Hopefully this injury won’t put that advice to shame, but for now, it’s best to hold on the 31-year-old back regardless of your situation. Until we know more about the length of his recovery, a deal involving Peterson carries with it too much risk.

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George Haw is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from George, check out his archive and follow him @georgeWarfieldH.