Ezekiel Elliott could find the sledding harder than expected against the 49ers
Geoff Lambert discusses players fade on DraftKings for Week 4 contests.
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Welcome to Week 4! We have come to that part of the season where we start hitting bye weeks. It shortens to the player pool a little bit each week and it condenses ownership as well. Low-owned players aren’t as low-owned as they were earlier in the season making it harder to find that one overlooked guy that could win you some money. There are only two teams on a bye this week (Eagles, Packers), but looking ahead to Week 5 we start to see a lot of top-tier players getting a week off. Enjoy one more week with a sizable amount of choices. Here are this week’s fade candidates…
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Quarterback
Derek Carr (OAK) @ BAL $6,700
The Ravens defense was a team to target last year when selecting your QB or WRs. They were bottom 10 in fantasy points allowed to QBs and bottom five against WRs. Some DFS players that don’t pay enough attention to trends may not realize that this isn’t the same Ravens defense from 2015, and they will think this is a good matchup for Carr. It is not. They are currently top five in points allowed to opposing QBs, albeit against below average competition, but top five is top five.
The Ravens have one more factor working in their favor this week — the time-zone. The Raiders are flying from the West Coast to the East Coast for a 1pm start, and traditionally teams struggle when they have to make that trip. This Raiders offense will struggle early in this game and Carr will be unable to hit value against this much-improved defense.
Running Back
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) @ SF $6,900
Over the last year, the 49ers’ defense has been a different team when playing at home versus on the road. They tend to get blown out on the road, but manage to keep things close at Levi’s Stadium. I picked the 49ers defense to shut down Todd Gurley in Week 1 and that call turned out nicely for me, and now I think the Cowboys could be in for a similar result. The Cowboys will likely be without Dez Bryant, leaving them without any playmakers in the passing game, which could hurt Elliott in the run game. Expect the 49ers to drop eight guys into the box and dare Dak Prescott to beat them, much like they did against the Rams when they kept Gurley in check for the entire game.
Wide Receiver
Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG) @ MIN $8,700
The Vikings defense is legit and has now shut down both the Packers’ and Panthers’ offenses in back to back weeks. Kelvin Benjamin was unable to do anything against the Vikings defense and they were able to sack Cam Newton a whopping seven times! Beckham is always just one big play from having a good fantasy day, but I’d rather spend my money elsewhere.
Amari Cooper (OAK) @ BAL $7,600
For all the reasons I don’t like Carr, I don’t like Cooper either. Though they are not as good as the Ray Lewis-led defenses of years past, the Ravens defense is much improved over last year’s version and I’ll be fading all of the Raiders’ offensive skill positions.
Tight End
Dwayne Allen (IND) @ JAC $3,800
Allen has been a popular GPP tight end over the last few weeks (even I had him as a top call last week), but he has been out targetted and less productive than fellow tight end Jack Doyle. The only thing worse than an RBBC (running back by committee) is a TEBC, and that’s exactly what we have here. No thanks.
Defense
Washington Redskins vs Browns $3,500
The Redskins have already lost safety DeAngelo Hall for the season, and will most likely be without starting CB Bashaud Breeland for this week. That is a lot to lose for a team that wasn’t very good defensively already. Everyone likes to jump on the defense playing the Browns, but it hasn’t been all that lucrative over the past two games. Washington hasn’t been able to really stop anyone and the Browns will be no different. Cleveland should have very little resistance putting up points.
Better Options
Quarterback
- Philip Rivers vs NO $6,900
- Kirk Cousins vs CLE $6,500
Running Back
- C.J. Anderson vs TB $6,500
- Melvin Gordon vs NO $6,300
Wide Receiver
- A.J. Green vs MIA $8,500
- DeAndre Hopkins vs TEN $8,400
Tight End
- Dennis Pitta vs OAK $3,900
Defense
- **New York Jets vs Seahawks $2,800
- New England Patriots vs Bills $3,300
**if Russell Wilson sits out
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