Will Ezekiel Elliott see TD opportunities voltured away Week 1?
Fading is one of the most satisfying aspects of daily fantasy. It’s counter intuitive to everything we’ve learned in fantasy football. Why would we go with the unknown when we are so sure that another player will score more points?
Jonathan Bales calls football “organized chaos.” Think about it. There are 11 players on offense who need to be in sync with each other. This is all while the coaches are screaming at them and 11 other guys are trying to hit and take the ball away. Coaches are constantly tinkering with lineups, adjusting and re-adjusting to game plans. Everything changes from play-to-play and game-to-game. Players get hurt and suddenly rookies are thrust into play. Sometimes there are off-the-field issues we never hear about that affects on-the-field performance.
Plays break down all the time and the guys you were so sure would score 30+ fantasy points end up with 10. There is a gray area in daily fantasy sports. This gray area is insanely profitable. Once you begin to realize all the stuff that can go wrong you can begin embracing this chaos for profit.
It happens all the time. Players far underperform their projected point total. Every week there are lineups at the top of the leaderboard with players you never considered.
Don’t you think it’s time to join in on the fun? I’ll be breaking down weekly fades all season long. By the end of the season you’ll do one of two things:
A. Praise me for opening up your mind to a new source of profit
B. Curse me for telling you to fade Odell Beckham Jr. week after week as he demolishes opposing defenses.
Either way, it will be a fun-filled learning experience.
Enter the NFL Sunday Million for your chance at a $200k top prize 
Quarterback
Dak Prescott (DAL): $5,000
This one is tough on me. I’ve been excited to start Prescott since before the first preseason game. While I’d never wish injury on any player, I always thought it was a matter of time before Romo got hurt this season. It turns out it happened a lot sooner than anyone could have anticipated.
His min salary makes it easy for the public to jump on board even though he is a relative unknown. Because of that, he is a fade in tournaments. Adam Levitan has him projected at around 20% ownership in the big millionaire maker tournaments. He is still an option in cash games, but he is a fade in every tournament you play.
Because everyone loves going cheap at QB, you’re better off paying up. Another thing to consider is the players you can fit into Dak Prescott lineups. You can comfortably fade those players as well. If you’re unsure of the players I’m talking about, take a few minutes to make your own Prescott lineup. It’s very easy to fit multiple elite level players together in one super lineup. Guess what? Everyone else can also make the same or a very similar lineup.
If most of those players bust and you have none of them, you’ll have a huge edge in any tournament you play in.
Alternate Plays
Andrew Luck (IND): $8,700
His stock is at an all-time low as he’s coming off injury. He’s playing at home in a potential shootout. Luck will do Luck things and set you up for GPP glory.
Aaron Rodgers (GB): $9,000
The Jaguars are the trendy off-season pick to get to the playoffs. They are supposed to have a much improved defense. I’m not buying it. Rodgers will demolish them.
Running Back
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): $7,900
Sorry Cowboys fans. I know it may seem like I’m bashing your team, but I’m not. The Elliott hype has been high all training camp. It exploded when Elliot lowered his shoulder into Kam Chancellor. There is no doubt Elliott is an elite talent. There is also no denying there is a pretty good running back behind him who has a nose for the end zone. That running back is named Alfred Morris. As a Washington Redskin, Morris scored 28 touchdowns in his first three years in the league. What do you think he can do behind an elite offensive line?
Is it realistic to believe that Elliott will understand all the intricacies of an NFL playbook? Probably not. Rookie running backs struggle in pass protection. It’s also worth noting that teams are more cognizant of player safety. Garrett may not want to overwork Elliott early on electing to ease him into his eventual 300+ carry role.
So pump the breaks on Elliott Week 1. Starting Prescott and Elliot in the same backfield also isn’t smart. Alfred Morris is on touchdown vulture watch.
Alternate plays
David Johnson (KC): $8,800
The narrative is that Belichick takes away a team’s best player. At least that’s what you’ll hear in between all the Bryce Harper click-bait hair segments. Good luck with that, Bill. Johnson is a 30-touch per game guy. Most people will just pay a $100 more for Gurley.
Ryan Mathews (PHI): $6,100
Mathews has ruined millions of fantasy football players hopes and dreams in the past. He is now the only complete running back on the Eagles’ roster. He can run, block and catch, and he’s playing the Browns.
Wide Receiver
Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG): $9,100
By now you probably think I hate money. These are all the plays you’ve been excited to start all offseason. Is Odell Beckham Jr. where you draw the line? I don’t watch SportsCenter anymore because bias kills in daily fantasy sports. I’m sure they are replaying “the catch” leading up to this game over and over up until Sunday kickoff. SportsCenter feeds into cliche narratives and creates a bias that’s hard to break.
This has nothing to do with his skillset. Beckham Jr. is an elite talent in the mold of Randy Moss. If this was Madden 17, I’d call you crazy for sitting him.
There are a lot of things that happen in games that have nothing to do with a player’s skillset. Blocking schemes breakdown, quarterbacks overthrow or underthrow receivers and players just flat out underperform. Maybe the game plan favors the run game or ODB gets double or triple covered?
If Beckham Jr. busts for whatever reason you will have a monumental edge over the field of play.
Alternates
DeAndre Hopkins (HOU): $8,400
Most people will stop at Beckham Jr. or pay up for Antonio Brown. Osweiler doesn’t exactly instill confidence in casual observers of the game. Remember, Hopkins made a few below average quarterbacks look elite in stretches last year.
Mike Evans (TB): $7,900
This guy has target monster written all over him. He only scored three touchdowns last year so most people won’t want to start him. Their tune will change once he torches a defense for 2-to-3 TD catches.
Tight End
Travis Kelce (KC): $6,500
Kelce is an athletic freak at the position. He also plays for an average quarterback who likes to spread the ball around. Will Jamaal Charles being out Week 1 positively affect Kelce’s target share? Probably not. Spencer Ware has filled in admirably catching eight passes in Week 2 and 3 of the preseason this year. Jeremy Maclin is the clear-cut No. 1 target. Knile Davis/Charcandrick West will also rotate in and steal some targets and touches.
The Chiefs are built to play keep away and grind the clock down. They aren’t built for Kelce to register 10-to-12 touchdown catches. Game flow can easily phase Kelce out of a game plan quick. Kelce can easily be the third or fourth option on a team who isn’t in love with throwing the ball.
Alternatives
Jordan Reed (WAS): $7,400
People may fade Reed because they want action and they want it NOW! Reed plays on Monday night. A Cousins/Reed stack in those games that include Thursday night contests could end up with GPP glory. Cousins and Reed will go criminally underowned in all Thursday night lineups.
Gary Barnidge (CLE): $6,300
Why would you play Gary Barnidge when you could have Travis Kelce? That’s what most people will be thinking Week 1. You should exploit this and start Barnidge. RG3 still can’t make it through all his progressions, so he will have to rely on Gary more often than not. Hue Jackson sure gave Tyler Eifert a lot of love last year. Barnidge can potentially put up similar numbers.
Defense
Carolina Panthers: $4,700
We are all very excited to have NFL football back! Have you ever noticed everyone thinks it’s their best fantasy sport? We will touch on that in a different article. For now, let me explain the mental gymnastics of fading the Carolina Panthers.
Thursday is a rematch of Super Bowl 50. This time, the Broncos have decided to start an undrafted QB with a rifle for an arm named Trevor Siemian.
Siemian can truly make some spectacular throws. He also throws some inadvertent interceptions. The thing I’ve heard all off-season from Broncos’ fans is that it can’t be worse than last year, can it? It most definitely can! Peyton Manning and his noodle arm looked horrible all year but they still won. Why is that? He has leadership qualities that stat geeks like us can’t measure. Siemian is green and doesn’t have the locker room presence Manning had. To top it off, he can’t bribe players with his lifetime supply of Budweiser.
It’s different when a team rallies around a savvy veteran versus an unknown QB like Siemian. Yes, it’s admirable that Siemian blew out his knee and is now starting for the Super Bowl champions. It’s still hard for a veteran team to get excited to play through all the inevitable mistakes.
So why shouldn’t you start a Panthers defense against an unknown QB prone to making mistakes? Because it’s on Thursday night on prime time. Everyone is overly excited to play fantasy football. It’s well known that Thursday ownership is inflated because people can’t wait for Sunday. It will be even more inflated because it’s the very first Thursday game of the season.
Alternates
Philadelphia Eagles: $4,800
RG3 has looked decent in preseason. It’s also been noted during training camp that he still can’t make it through his reads. At this point, RG3 is who he is. The Eagles have some playmakers on the defensive side of the ball.
Los Angeles Rams: $4,500
The Rams are dirt cheap against a talent-devoid 49ers squad. They currently have “Blame” Gabbert as their starter. That should be enough reason to seriously consider the Rams.
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Arash Ghaemi is a correspondent at FantasyPros. You can also find his work at DraftShot.com and follow him @DraftshotAsh.
