Should DFS players fade Zeke in week 2?
The fades are in! How did I do?
Dak Prescott – 10.28 Fantasy Points
While Prescott showed great command of the huddle, it didn’t translate into actual fantasy points. Andrew Luck, one of my alternates, put up 35.5 fantasy points.
Ezekiel Elliott – 12.2 Fantasy Points
Dallas did their best to get Elliot going. They handed it off to him 20 times. He only ended up with 51 yards. The cut he made on his touchdown run was impressive. He has a very bright future in Dallas.
Odell Beckham Jr – 9.3 Fantasy points
Manning overthrew Beckham Jr on one red zone throw. On another Beckham Jr couldn’t get his feet in bounds. He had his opportunities. It just didn’t work out. Remember, there is more stuff that can go wrong in a football game than go right. Overthrows are just one. Missed blocks are another. Lack of motivation, even when making millions, also can be a factor on a nightly basis.
–My alternate play, DeAndre Hopkins, didn’t do much better with 13.9 fantasy points. Mike Evans, my other alternate, ended up with 18.4 fantasy points.
Travis Kelce – 10.4 Fantasy Points
Kelce ended up with an average stat line in an incredible comeback win by the Chiefs. Gary Barnidge had 0 fantasy points so there’s that.
Carolina Panthers – 8 Fantasy Points
The Panthers were stunned on Thursday night by a last second miss by Graham Gano. Trevor Siemian looked great in stretches and the Panthers gave up 21 points.
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Fading and ownership is an inexact science. It’s part detective work and part moxie. Some people are too afraid of being wrong to fade. Others need practice before they develop that skillset. I’ve been humbled several times thinking I had it all figured out. Your entire lineup can’t be low owned or you’ll drastically lower your upside. It also takes a little time to learn how to read between the lines. Coaches mislead and beat writers don’t always get the best information. You have to pick and choose your spots. Take Spencer Ware leading up to week one. There was a lot of misinformation regarding Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West. It seemed like the whole world was going to start him until a beat writer said he was behind Charcandrick West on the depth chart. Lots of people panicked and pivoted to Christine Michael. Ware ended up starting and demolishing the Chargers. At the end of the day, Ware is a much more complete back than West. He also gets more goal line work than West and looked great in preseason.
Now who do we fade this week?
Quarterback
Drew Brees (IND), $9,200
This past weekend Drew Brees threw for 423 yards and 4 touchdowns in a loss to the Raiders. Last year Drew Brees demolished the Giants for 505 yards and 7 touchdowns. Guess who Brees gets to play this weekend? The New York football Giants! So why is Brees a fade? Everything looks fantastic on paper except for a few minor details. Brees has thrown for 76 fewer touchdowns on the road than at home. His passer rating also dips 10 points from 101.2 to 90.8. He also completes 2% less passes (67.34% vs 65.37%). His win/loss record is just above average with a 57-52 touchdown to interception ratio. A few percentage points doesn’t seem like much but it is in daily fantasy.That’s why this article even exists and you’re reading it right now!
Alternate Plays
Marcus Mariota(TEN): $7,500
–The Lions just gave up 384 yards passing and 4 touchdowns to Andrew Luck. Mariota isn’t Luck but there will be plenty of room for him to run and pass to a monster stat line.
Josh McCown(CLE): $6,000
–RG3 is out until further notice. Stack McCown with Barnidge for a low owned high upside stack.
Running Back
Ezekiel Elliot (DAL), $7,900
It may seem like I’m picking on Elliot but I’m not. This is less about last week and more about narratives. Alfred Morris returns home in a classic DFS revenge game! Fantasy football players are suckers for ownership. In this case, because Alfred Morris is the backup, it will keep his percentages in check. Alfred Morris is on touchdown vulture watch once again!
Alternate Plays
CJ Anderson(SD): $7,800
–The Colts keep losing defensive starters. Two more defensive backs went down against the Lions. Their front 7 is in shambles. Look for the Broncos to run all over the Colts and CJ to lead the charge.
TJ Yeldon(JAX): $6,500
–Yeldon only ended up with 39 rush yards on 21 attempts. He did score a touchdown and also had four receptions on six targets. Yeldon will have more running room against the reeling Chargers.
Wide Receiver
Jordan Matthews (NO), $6,900
The Carson Wentz era has begun. His new favorite target is Jordan Matthews. Matthews had 7 catches for 114 yards and 1 touchdown against the Browns. Wentz will no doubt go through some growing pains as a rookie. While the Bears are in no way good on defense, they do have an intriguing collection of talent. The speed on the Bears defense could force Wentz into some mistakes. Wentz will also be on the road in a hostile environment. Matthews doesn’t have big play upside. He makes his living in the slot. Carson Wentz and Jordan Matthews price tag will no doubt make them a very popular play in week 2. Comfortably fade and look for value elsewhere.
Alternate Plays
Amari Cooper(OAK): $7,900
–Cooper had an excellent rookie season plagued by drops(10). Don’t let the drops deter you. Cooper is an elite wide receiver in the mold of Julio Jones. The Raiders are on a high after going for two and winning the game. The confidence that instills in a team is unmeasurable with stats. The Raiders will roll against the Falcons with Cooper as the prime beneficiary.
DeMaryius Thomas(DEN): $7,000
–Thomas gets more hate than any other 105 catch wide receiver ever has in history! I know first hand living in Denver. All I hear about is how bad he sucks. The problem is that those drops happened in huge games in high-pressure situations. That’s all the casual fan can remember. The casual fan reflects the bias of the public. Exploiting bias is a big part of fading or not fading. Thomas doesn’t suck. He’s a big, fast strong receiver playing against a secondary running on fumes. He also has a young QB who can bomb it to him deep. Most people will target Denver’s running game. Thomas could easily get 2+ red zone looks to go along with a few deep down the field throws.
Tight End
Travis Kelce (KC), $6,300
Kelce was on my list last week. Against the Texans, he’s on here again. While it’s only been one game, The Texans are top 8 in the league against the position. Kelce can easily be phased out of the game as the Chiefs have a lot of mouths to feed.
Alternate Plays
Dwayne Allen(MIN): $6,200
–Luck will need to get passes off quick with the Broncos pass defense coming after him. Allen and Doyle are both in play here. I prefer Allen as he will get more targets.
Defense
Denver Broncos, $4,900
The Broncos defense is for real! The Colts look awful on the defensive side of the ball. They also are struggling with their offensive line. This looks like a recipe for disaster but it’s not. Andrew Luck has made a living shredding the Broncos on the ground and through the air. In three career games, Luck has thrown for 850 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. He has also rushed for 82 yards and two touchdowns! All it takes is one mental breakdown from Talib for TY Hilton to break one deep. This defense has the exact same or similar personnel of the last several years. All it takes is one mental breakdown from Aquib Talib for TY Hilton to break one deep. Speaking of Aquib Talib, he lost his cool last year and tried to poke Dwayne Allen‘s eye out against the Colts.
Alternate Plays
Green Bay Packers: $4,400
–The Packers face a Minnesota Vikings team with no identity at QB. While Peterson has torched them in the past, he is on the downside of his career. Look for the Packers to force multiple turnovers from whoever plays QB for the Vikings.
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Arash Ghaemi is a correspondent at FantasyPros. You can also find his work atDraftShot.com and follow him @DraftshotAsh.
