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Players To Fade On FanDuel: Week 4

Players To Fade On FanDuel: Week 4
Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford shouldn’t have to throw as much this weekend versus Chicago

The reports of Aaron Rodgers demise are greatly exaggerated. Rodgers, my top QB fade, came out firing against the Detroit Lions. He ended up with 24.2 fantasy points and four touchdown passes in the first half! Jordy Nelson, my wide receiver fade, scored two touchdowns and 25.1 fantasy points. I did correctly call fading the Seattle Seahawks. They only scored 3 fantasy points. My alternate tight end, Kyle Rudolph, had seven catches for 70 yards and a touchdown for 16.5 fantasy points. C.J. Anderson was my top running back to avoid. He ended up with 4.6 fantasy points. My alternate play, David Johnson, scored 24.6 fantasy points. Marcus Mariota really made me look bad with 6.76 fantasy points!

The one play that saved me was Matt Stafford. He wasn’t in my article early on for good reason. The opening line was -8.5. By the end of the week, it had gone all the way down to -7. The Packers were going to be without Morgan Burnett, Clay Matthews, and Sam Shields. These injuries weren’t announced until later in the week. Vegas is a great place to start when projecting ownership percentage. I knew I had to get Matt Stafford and Marvetron (Marvin Jones Jr.) into my lineups after seeing all this unfold throughout the week.

Stafford was low owned and had a monster game (385 yards and three touchdowns). Marvetron, who replaced Megatron (no relation), ended up with six catches for 205 yards and two touchdowns!

Now before I pat myself on the back I did make a mistake here. If I projected Stafford to have a huge game in a shootout, why didn’t I also take action on the Packers offense as well? When looking back at your week it’s important to reflect on spots like these. These spots are great situations to learn from moving forwards as you attempt to continue to improve. Just like NFL players watch film and make adjustments, you too should be uncovering your own personal bias in daily fantasy.

Because I had Rodgers and Nelson in my fades article I failed to make the necessary adjustments to my lineups. With all that being said I still won’t change my approach. An adjustment is fine. Changing your whole approach because of one misstep is not.

I see this happen all the time in daily fantasy. Regret sinks in and people over-adjust only to lose more money the next week.Now who do we

Now who do we fade this week?

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Week 4 Fades

Matthew Stafford (DET) $8,300 @ CHI

Wait, what? Why would I fade a guy that just threw for 385 and three touchdowns? Think about how Stafford had to get there. The line started at -8.5 and went down to -7. That means that sharp money was placing bets on Detroit. This, in turn, means that they thought this would be a more competitive game. The key word is “competitive.” The Bears are not competitive. They have multiple injuries on defense and have no identity on offense. Stafford won’t have to throw for 385 yards and three touchdowns to win.

Christine Michael (SEA) $7,500 @ NYJ

Michael finally broke out! He was touted as the next breakout player for the last three years. Every season he disappointed millions of fantasy football fans when he failed to produce. Now, suddenly, he plays up to his potential.

The Seahawks still have issues with their offensive line. The Jets are also ranked fourth in the league against the run. That thrashing from Kansas City was the result of six Ryan Fitzpatrick turnovers. Don’t buy into the Michael hype! He may get the touches but he won’t get the yards against the New York Jets.

Emmanuel Sanders (DEN) $6,900 @ TB

I’m having a really tough time with this one. Originally, I had Marvetron here. Jones is currently averaging 22.7 yards per catch. It looks like he has embraced being in the shadow of Calvin Johnson. His situation is too good and he could easily light the bears up for 100+ yards and a touchdown.

That leaves Sanders. The only reason I give pause here is that this offense is still run-first. If Kubiak can establish the run, he will. The Lions don’t have a legitimate bell cow at running back. Their short passing game is an extension of their running game.

Because of that, I fade Sanders here. We don’t know if that was an outlier or a sign of things to come with Trevor Simien. Also worth noting is that Sanders has only caught 55% of his passes thrown his way. Demaryius Thomas has caught 80%! Sanders is still in boom or bust territory. Most people will play him anyway as he’s a dirt cheap $6,900 on FanDuel.

Jimmy Graham (SEA) $6,400 @ NYJ

Graham finally looks like the tight end he was for the Saints. He ended up catching six of his nine targets for 100 yards and a touchdown. While it’s great Graham finally looks like himself, the Jets aren’t a great spot to start him.

Russell Wilson also has an MCL sprain. While he is expected to play, he most likely won’t be himself in a hostile environment.

Houston Texans $4,900 vs. TEN

The Texans were just run over by LaGarette Blount and the Patriots. The best way to neutralize a pass rush is to run right at it. The Titans are a run-first team who will do their best to control the clock with Murray and Henry. It’s hard to envision Houston getting many sacks or pressures in this game. They will be a popular pick after how bad Marcus Mariota looked this past week. This isn’t an offense where he will have to drop back and throw very much. We also now have the news that J.J. Watt will be sidelined for the foreseeable future, futher weakening this Texans’ defense.

Alternate Plays

Blaine Gabbert (SF) $6,400 vs. DAL

Gabbert is still radioactive. His scatter shot accuracy and NFL bust status will keep his ownership low. The Cowboys defense is soft. The only thing that saves them from looking worse is their ball control offense. The 49ers are also a ball control offense. Gabbert can run as well. The Cowboys are ranked ninth worst against opposing quarterbacks.

This number is slightly inflated. Because the opposing team doesn’t have the ball much, they don’t have as many opportunities to throw. In this case, Gabbert may not either. What we are banking on here is him breaking a few big runs and scoring a rushing touchdown.

Dwayne Washington (DET) $4,500 vs. CHI

I originally thought last week was a good spot to take Washington. I ended up not pulling the trigger. With the Lions playing catch-up the game favored Theo Riddick over the more complete Washington. With Ameer Abdullah out for the year, the Lions need help establishing a running game. Riddick, at 5’9″ 201 lbs, is too small to run between the tackles.

Enter Washington. Washington stands at 6’1″ 223 lbs and runs a 4.4. He scored in Week 1. If anyone is going to get red zone touches it’s Washington. Last week he carried the ball 10 times. If the game hadn’t been out of reach early that likely would have been closer to 15. In a game where the Lions are favored by three against a bad defense, Washington is in a great spot!

DeSean Jackson (WAS) $6,900 vs. CLE

The Cleveland Browns blew the game at the end against the Miami Dolphins. The Redskins may have just saved their season pulling out a win against the New York Giants. In 2015 the Redskins also started very slow. This is a great game to pick up momentum. It’s also a great game for Jackson to bust out in a very big way.

This week Sanders and Jackson are essentially the same type of player. Both are boom or bust plays but Jackson will be lower owned. He is also playing on a team that’s pass-first instead of run-first. The Browns are a good spot to get their offense back on track.

Jordan Reed (WAS) $7,500 vs. CLE

As mentioned above the Browns will do Browns things. This includes losing when the game counts and getting destroyed by a mediocre defense. The Redskins are a high-powered offense who are starting slow. They just saved their season. It’s time to fine tune their game plan. The floundering Browns are the perfect team to do that against. Reed should have his first monster game of the season. He will also be very low owned.

New England Patriots $4,500 vs. BUF

Don’t let last week’s win fool you. The Bills are in a lot of trouble. The West coast team traveling to an Eastern time zone is a real effect. In this case, the Cardinals looked way worse than they really are. The Bills are dealing with multiple injuries. This is a LaGarrette Blount team right now. Belichick will no doubt hand it off the Blount as long as he will keep trucking over opposing defenders. By controlling the clock, Blount will keep the defense fresh to get sacks and turnovers.

Arash Ghaemi is a correspondent at FantasyPros. You can also find his work at DraftShot.com and follow him @DraftshotAsh.

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