Considering that Matt Forte’s hefty workload is unsustainable, is he worth holding onto?

I have to start this off by saying, I am a Bears’ fan. I have been a Bears’ fan since I was 16 years old, and I became what many would consider a die-hard fan when I was 18. Why is this important? Well, because I am about to give you two scenarios on what to do with Matt Forte, and I will obviously have some bias.

When it comes to fantasy football, I do my best not to let my fandom cloud my judgment. I had Alshon Jeffery ranked seventh going into the season and Kevin White was a trade target I acquired in my keeper league during the offseason. I like to think I made those choices based on smart fantasy IQ and not because I bleed orange and blue. Only time will tell I guess since both have yet to play up to my expectations.

Okay, so remember how I am a Bears’ fan? Well, Forte is one of my all-time favorite players. So yeah, bias will play no part in what I am about to tell you. I know, you do not believe me, but I am also the same person who said the Bears would be parting ways with Forte in my 2015 fantasy outlook of Jeremy Langford.

Before we break down your two options on what to do with Forte and his hot start to the season, let me remind you of how undervalued and productive Forte has been. Over his eight-year career, Forte has been arguably one of the most consistent backs in the NFL.

He has also been one of the best all-around backs and in my mind, the second best running back ever to wear a Bears uniform. Sorry Gale Sayers, but longevity makes a difference.

Let us compare three running backs. Running back A has 2,413 carries and 13,680 all-purpose yards during his career. Running back A excelled at finding the end zone and has 102 touchdowns in his career. Throughout his career, he has averaged 4.9 yards per carry. Based on these numbers, Running back A is a lock for the Hall of Fame.

Let us move onto running back B. He has an unbelievable 21,264 all-purpose yards during his career. However, he ran the ball 3,838 times and only averaged 4.4 yards per carry. Opportunity knocked for him too as he finished with 125 total touchdowns.

That brings us to running back C. He has run the ball 2.087 times and has 12,982 all-purpose yards. Running back C’s downfall is the end zone. He has only crossed the goal line 67 times, but still averages 4.2 yards per carry for his career.

If you have not guessed it yet, running back A is Adrian Peterson, running back B is Walter Payton and running back C is Forte. Other than touchdowns, Forte deserves consideration for the Hall of Fame once his career is over. He is an all-around back who runs, catches and even blocks well. However, is that enough to hold onto him in fantasy this year? Let’s look!

Sell High

If you are a Forte owner, you likely drafted him late in the first round or somewhere in the second. This all depends on league size and scoring settings. This also means you are not following the Zero RB theory that many people jumped on board with this season.

Maybe you are hurting for a wide receiver, or maybe you took a risk on a late quarterback who is not panning out. Selling high on Forte, especially with all the injuries this week, might be your best move.

I am in six fantasy leagues this year – all of them have different settings and formats. I own Forte in two of those leagues. In fact, in one league he is my RB2 behind Lamar Miller. In that league, I am not sure I will get proper value for Forte.

It is a two-quarterback league with eight IDP positions, but we only have eight teams. Therefore, most teams are pretty stacked. My other team, however, is a 16-team league, and I have both Forte and Melvin Gordon. I am considering moving one of them for a better receiver.

Why would I do this? Simple. I do not trust Forte to maintain his current pace.

Right now, Forte is on pace for 416 carries. He is 30 years old and has not topped 300 carries since his rookie year. What does this mean?

Well, it means the Jets will likely start using Bilal Powell more and give Forte some rest, or it means Forte will likely get injured. Either way, it means these 25 and 30 point weeks will not sustain.

So, why not get the best value for him by moving him and upgrading my team elsewhere? This would be my only reason to move Forte at this point in the year.

Keep Him

This brings us to the other option. Keeping Forte and riding him until the wheels fall off. After playing around with my trade analyzer on the NFL My Playbook, I decided I plan on keeping Forte in both leagues. Even if Forte sees a reduction in touches, the guy is a workhorse.

Side note of information; “workhorse” is Forte’s nickname and he has more than earned it. If we add in his receptions, he is averaging 30 touches a game. Realistically, those touches will likely drop to 20.

Even if that were the case, Forte should average close to 100 all-purpose yards per game. Why do I have confidence this is the case? Well, because even in his worst statistical year in the NFL, Forte still averaged 87 all-purpose yards a game.

If you play in a PPR format, he may be the most valuable asset to own outside of Lamar Miller and David Johnson. Crazy I know!

I know. You think I should be worried about an injury.

Here’s the thing. I’m just not.

Maybe it is from all the years of watching him be the Bears’ entire offense. Maybe it is from watching him come back from two separate knee injuries and look stronger than ever. I get it, the magical over the age of 30 number scares people.

It is true, but for some guys, that number is just a number. Forte will likely play fewer than 16 games this season, and I am okay with it. Behind that Jets’ offensive line his TD numbers are clearly going to increase, and if I can own him for 12 or 13 games, I will be happy.

Besides, injuries can happen to a 23-year-old too. Just ask Ameer Abdullah or Donte Moncrief.

Conclusion

For my teams and I, I am keeping Forte. That said, I have the depth needed in those leagues to live without him if some injury does occur.

Therefore, his hot start could mean something different for each fantasy owner. If these scenarios did not help with your specific situation, feel free to reach out to me through comments or on Twitter for further advice.

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Rob Schwarz, Jr. is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Rob, check out his archive. You may also read his work on Fantasy Life, FLAFFLhouse and Clock Dodgers, or you can follow him on Twitter @ChiSportsnut25.