Last week I gave myself a giant pat on the back for nailing my fades from Week 6. This week is the complete opposite. I whiffed on Andy Dalton and A.J. Green. That was one of the top scoring stacks of the week with 47 combined fantasy points.
My alternate plays did do well so this week wasn’t a complete wash. Kirk Cousins scored 25 fantasy points against the Detroit Lions. Melvin Gordon, a guy I touted as finally having a complete game, scored three rushing touchdowns vaulting the Chargers to a win!
It’s weeks like this that can leave your ego shattered. Why couldn’t I have just picked Dalton and Green? How much more obvious could it get in this spot against the Cleveland Browns?
When I beat myself up like this, I have to keep the process top of mind. One of the mantras I live by is “Trust the Process” and I apply it to more things than just DFS. I also have to remind myself that the same thought process that told me to fade Dalton and Green is responsible for my success in daily fantasy sports!
Yes! It’s true that as a contrarian DFS player you can go off the rails with fades and picks that don’t always make sense. When that happens, the only thing you can do is look at where you may have made a mistake and make adjustments as needed.
Now who do we fade in Week 8?
Week 8 Fades
Tom Brady (NE) $8,700 @ Buffalo Bills
Brady finally looked like a mere mortal last week by only throwing for two touchdowns and 222 yards. Fading Brady is always risky, but the Bills can be rushed on. This will be an especially hostile environment as the Bills look to get back on track against the Patriots.
Expect Blount to play a huge part in this game after Jay Ajayi rushed for another 200 yards against the Buffalo Bills defense this past week. Divisional games are historically lower scoring from a fantasy perspective especially the second matchup of the season.
Matt Forte (NYJ) $7,300 @ Cleveland Browns
What an obvious spot for Forte to have a monster game. Jeremy Hill just ran nine times for 168 yards and one touchdown against the Browns. Forte just posted 27.4 fantasy points, and the Jets need him as they have no identity at this point.
The only reason you fade here is that Forte may not need to post another monster performance against the Browns. Forte is well past his prime and the last time they let him touch it 30+ times the games that followed were less than stellar. This includes a 2.7 fantasy point dud four total games under eight fantasy points!
Jordy Nelson (GB) $7,500 @ Atlanta Falcons
Nelson and Rodgers haven’t been on the same page this year. Against the New York Giants, he had four catches on 13 targets and one touchdown. Last week he only had four targets and one catch for nine yards.
On the year he has only caught 52% of his passes thrown his way. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams have established a connection we’ve all been waiting for this year. This isn’t the game that Nelson breaks out as much as we all want it to be.
Rob Gronkowski (NE) $8,100 @ Buffalo Bills
I know this may be considered cheating using Gronk twice in two weeks. Fading a player can last weeks on end.
Gronk is now fully operational, but that doesn’t change the fact that this game will be far from a shootout. As mentioned above the second matchup of divisional games is always lower scoring from a fantasy football perspective.
Philadelphia Eagles $4,800 @ Dallas Cowboys
The Philadelphia Eagles made Sam Bradford look like the guy we all thought he was. The Dallas Cowboys have the offensive line to stop that pass rush right in its tracks.
A heavy dose of Ezekiel Elliot will wear down a front seven that prefers to rush the passer versus stop the run. As the game goes on, they will be susceptible to big down the field plays.
The Raiders have played great all year but are giving up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks on the year. This game sets up to be a sneaky shootout as everyone else focuses in on the Greenbay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons game.
David Johnson (ARI) @ Carolina Panthers
The way pricing is set up is for most people to choose Elliot, Christine Michael or Spencer Ware. Not many people will choose to pay up for David Johnson against the Carolina Panthers. While the Panthers are stout up front, teams have been demolishing them through the air.
Johnson is an extension of the passing game. Have you seen him line up wide in some formations? He hasn’t caught a big down the field pass yet, but this is the week he does. The Panthers are an emotional dumpster fire who have the worst super bowl hangover of all time!
DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) $7,600 vs. Detroit Lions
Brock Osweiler looked lost against the Denver Broncos. That was to be expected, and it’s easy to make fun of the situation on social media. Can you believe they are paying a guy $72 million dollars to do a Kevin Kolb impersonation?
With all that being said the Detroit Lions give up the most fantasy points to quarterbacks and the sixth most fantasy points to wide receivers. You have to think Bill O’Brien will try and get his best player involved in Hopkins.
Lamar Miller is currently questionable and suffered a shoulder injury in the Monday night loss to the Broncos. Expect Osweiler to force it to Hopkins especially if Darius Slay ends up being out.
Gary Barnidge (CLE) $5,000 vs. New York Jets
“Barn Dawg” as we all so lovingly call him has been among the most consistent tight ends in the league! He has at least seven targets in three of the last four games and 57 or more receiving yards in all but one game this year.
While the Jets can be serviceable in spurts on defense, they have no real motivation to do anything but cash their checks on a weekly basis. Look for “Barn Dawg” to finally get into the end zone this week.
Kansas City Chiefs $4,500 @ Indianapolis Colts
I’m going back to the Chiefs on the road. Can you blame me with the defensive choices this week? Defense is a pure crap shoot and if that’s the case you might as well embrace the chaos! In this situation,
I want a defense that can get multiple sacks and a pick-six or two. I also want a team who has a kick returner that can take it to the house. The Chiefs have all that and are just an all around better-coached team than the Colts.