Fade Le’Veon Bell at your own risk this week
First and foremost I would like to wish all of you a blessed and wonderful Thanksgiving wherever you may be. Family, friends, food and football are just a few things that we all look forward to on Thanksgiving day. We should also be thankful for DraftKings running out a juicy tournament in the Wishbone Classic with $100K going to first place.
The Pittsburgh Steelers weigh in as the heaviest favorite with the spread currently at -9. The Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys post the highest over/under (o/u) at 51.0. The Dallas Cowboys own the highest projected team total (TT) at 29.3, while the Indianapolis Colts have a meager projected TT of only 19.3.
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Quarterback
Sam Bradford (MIN): $5,100 @DET
Hear me out before sending me nasty tweets about my Bradford recommendation this week. This is a three-game slate and you’re going to have to save salary in a few spots if you want to pony up for the big boys. For only $5,100 you get a quarterback that has plenty of weapons on offense and comes in as the underdog (+2.5). Targeting quarterbacks that are underdogs is proven to provide more value with ownership that is much lower than quarterbacks that are playing for a team that is favored.
Sam Bradford is averaging 34.5 passing attempts per game while being extremely efficient with the third highest completion rate of 69.8 percent. Bradford has only thrown two interceptions this season and we won’t have to worry about any weather conditions as this game is being played in a dome at Ford Field.
The Detroit Lions have been extremely vulnerable in the air this season, allowing 22 passing touchdowns through their first 10 games, giving them the third highest total allowed this season.
Ben Roethlisberger hasn’t been elite on the road this season and the Steelers will likely be playing ahead, which leads to keeping the ball on the ground.
Matthew Stafford is facing an elite defense in the Minnesota Vikings and hasn’t tossed for over 300 yards since Week 3.
Kirk Cousins and the Redskins had to play on Sunday Night Football and now have travel to Dallas to face the Cowboys on a very short week. It also feels like a case of point chasing this week after Cousins erupted against the Packers last week.
Dak Prescott grades out as my second highest projected point-per-dollar option this week, but hey, how can we fit him onto our plate with so many savory options soon to follow?
Scott Tolzien and the Colts offensive line? No thank you.
Running Backs
Le’Veon Bell (PIT): $9,000 @ IND
I’m honestly not sure how much Bell would have to cost for me to fade him on this slate. Bell graded out as my favorite running back option before Andrew Luck was deemed in concussion protocol. The spread opened at -2 and is now -9 in favor of the Steelers.
Bell is averaging as many targets as the elite receivers along with a heavy dose of touches on the ground. It just so happens that the Colts are one of the worst rushing defenses in the league, allowing the third most rushing yards per attempt (4.5).
There are plenty of ways to differentiate your lineups in tournaments, but fading Bell isn’t going to be one of them for me. It’s Thanksgiving, people. Owning the guy who is going to do the most eating will land on narrative street by the time its all said and done.
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): $8,500 vs. WAS
Speaking of eating, doesn’t Elliott continue to look hungry? This kid is the real deal and for anyone that says he is the product of the the Cowboys elite offensive line is just flat out drunk or naive.
The Cowboys gets to face a Redskins defense that is coming off an extremely short week after having to play on Sunday Night Football. Now the Redskins have to travel to Dallas and face a finely tuned offense that prides themselves on wearing teams out with their ground-and-pound attack.
Rostering Bell and Elliott in the same lineup seems like the way to go in cash games and/or tournaments this week. These two horses give you the highest floor along with the highest ceiling. Just click submit and figure everything else out from there.
The Cowboys have the highest projected TT at 29.3 and are a healthy favorite at -7.
Wide Receivers
Dez Bryant (DAL): $7,700 vs. WAS
My initial thoughts were to just plug in Antonio Brown and move on. However, after going over game flow and game theory, it lead to me getting off Brown and pivoting to Bryant. The Steelers should handily beat the the Colts and if that game gets out of control quickly enough there won’t be a need for the Steelers to keep the ball in the air.
Bryant draws a difficult matchup against Josh Norman, making this matchup the gravy on top so to speak. You already know Dez gets up for games that are on primetime and given he has a date with Norman, Bryant will certainly make sure he is in proper form.
Dak Prescott continues to look more comfortable at the NFL level and his rapport with Bryant continues to trend upwards. This young and fascinating duo has now connected for 12 receptions on 17 targets over their last two games. Dez’s explosiveness has allowed him to rack up 196 receiving and three touchdowns on those 12 receptions.
Recommending Bryant in cash isn’t something I’m going to do but having exposure in tournaments is certainly warranted with the Cowboys having the highest projected TT (29.3). Throwing up the “X” with stuffing flying out of your mouth when Dez scores a touchdown or two will be very satisfying.
Stefon Diggs (MIN): $6,900 @ DET
Diggs makes the decision of pivoting off Antonio Brown to Dez Bryant much easier. There really isn’t any way to squeeze the top two running backs along with Brown and Diggs into a lineup.
Vikings’ quarterback Sam Bradford loves to target Diggs as the 49 targets over the last four games would indicate. Ever since Norv Turner decided to quit as the Vikings OC, Diggs has been used much more in short yardage situations as well. Something we adore in DraftKings’ PPR format.
Last week Diggs had an extremely difficult matchup against Patrick Peterson who shadowed him for a majority of the game. Diggs was able to haul in six of his seven targets but only mustered 37 receiving yards.The Lions don’t have a defensive back in the same tier as Peterson, and Diggs recently ran a muck on the Lions’ secondary with 13 receptions on 14 targets for 80 receiving yards.
Diggs has a safe floor and elite talent to provide an immense amount of upside in tournaments. $6,900 seems too cheap given the matchup and heavy amount of volume.
Marvin Jones Jr. (DET): $4,100 vs. MIN
This pick won’t sit well with the Game Log Watchers. Marvin Jones has seen a tremendous dip in production after starting the year on fire. The Lions offense as a whole was putrid last week against the Jaguars as they couldn’t get anything going on the ground or in the air.
Jones’ significant dip in salary is too enticing for me to pass up in tournaments. His big play ability is still there and Matthew Stafford can certainly find ways to complete the deep ball. Even against a tough defense like the Vikings.
We have seen Marvin Jones’ floor recently where he only hauls in one reception but that seems to be the least likeliest of options moving forward. If you remember his floor then you have to remember the type of ceiling he as well. Go ahead and take a risk. It’s Thanksgiving and Marvin Jones just might give you another reason to be thankful.
Tight End
Jason Witten (DAL): $3,200 vs. WAS
With there only being three games to dissect you would have thought Jason Witten would come in with a salary above $3,200. Witten’s production continues to get an uptick as does Dak Prescott’s experience and confidence.
Over the last three games Witten has a massive 230 receiving yards and one touchdown via 19 receptions on a healthy 25 targets. The future HOF doesn’t possess the upside he once did, but his consistent role in the Cowboys offense gives him a stable floor and his cheap salary will supply enough opportunity to crush value.
FLEX
Ladarius Green (PIT): $2,600 @ IND
Green made his season debut in Week 10 against the Cowboys but he has been on a snap count through his first two weeks of action. Green’s lack of playing time and production has him near minimum salary at $2,600.
The Steelers OC Todd Haley stated that Green has been on a “pitch count” but should be a ‘full go’ this week. If Haley’s statements on Green’s playing time are true, you are landing a solid tight end that costs next to nothing.
The Colts currently rank 31st out of 32 teams in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) against the tight end position this season.
Defense/Special Teams
Pittsburgh Steelers: $2,800 @ IND
Andrew Luck is in the concussion protocol. The Colts have one of the worst, if not the worst, offensive line in all of football, allowing the second most sacks (35) this season. The Steelers defense still has enough talent to create big plays and will only cost you $2,800. That’s all I have to say about that.
Recommended Tournament Lineup
- Sam Bradford (MIN): $5,100 @ DET
- Le’Veon Bell (PIT): $9,000 @ IND
- Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): $8,500 vs. WAS
- Dez Bryant (DAL): $7,700 vs. WAS
- Stefon Diggs (MIN): $6,900 @ DET
- Marvin Jones Jr. (DET): $4,100 vs. MIN
- Jason Witten (DAL): $3,200 vs. WAS
- Ladarius Green (PIT): $2,600 @ IND
- Pittsburgh Steelers: $2,800 @ IND
If you have any questions or need suggestions, feel free to tweet me at anytime. Best of luck this week.
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Matthew Davis is a correspondent for FantasyPros. You can find more from Matthew by viewing his archive or following him @_mattywood_.
