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Players To Fade On FanDuel: Week 11

by Arash Ghaemi
Nov 17, 2016

Ezekiel Elliott's big game last week may, in fact, wind up making him a great fade candidate

Ezekiel Elliott’s big game last week may, in fact, wind up making him a great fade candidate

This past weekend I suggested you fade Ezekiel Elliott and he ended up with 39.9 fantasy points! Fading Elliott may have prevented you from taking down a big GPP, but you still would have cleared all your cash games and cashed in tournaments. I went all in on David Johnson in my cash games, and so did most everyone else.

Because of that, when Elliott scored two late touchdowns at lower ownership, there wouldn’t have been many lineups in your 50/50s or double ups to beat you! As the DFS industry gets flooded with content, the public is naturally going to lock on a few players.

Those are prime opportunities to fade a big name player and set yourself up for a big GPP score. Don’t let one bad week of fading make you want to eat chalk the next.

There is a difference between fading for profit and fading just because. When you choose which players to fade, there has to at the very least be a player who can match or exceed the higher owned player.

It’s not easy to say that Elliott was in a way better spot than David Johnson last week. The 49ers are dead last at defending the run and have given up 15 total touchdowns at the position so far this season!

The reason I bring this up is that a lot of people will berate themselves for not being able to choose Elliott over Johnson. They will say things like I knew that Elliott was going to have a big game. In reality, most of us may have thought about it but were never actually going to pull the trigger!

Now who should you fade this week?

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Aaron Rodgers (QB – GB) $9,100 @ Washington Redskins

This game looks like a shootout on paper with a 50.5 over/under and the Packers lacking anything resembling a running game. The Green Bay Packers are also ranked 16th worst against quarterbacks, 8th worst against wide receivers and 7th worst against tight ends. The Redskins are favored by -2.5 points which set’s up for Rodgers having to throw early and often!

With all that being said the Redskins have only allowed 10 touchdown passes up to this point mostly because of Josh Norman. That equates to around one touchdown per game which isn’t ideal for any quarterback. Rodgers will have to throw, but it doesn’t mean he will be efficient doing so.

Ezekiel Elliott (RB – DAL) $8,700 vs. Baltimore Ravens

Elliott scored a whopping 39.9 fantasy points against the Steelers. It’s apparent that Elliott is the best running back to enter the league since Adrian Peterson. He may end up with more yardage as he’s starting his career running behind an elite offensive line.

Elliott faces the Baltimore Ravens next who are number one in the league against the run. The Cowboys are rolling which sets up for an eventual letdown game. This could be it as the Ravens look to create separation in the AFC North.

Elliott will no doubt be highly owned after is monster statistical output. This is a prime spot to fade a big name player.

Jordy Nelson (WR – GB) $7,800 @ Washington Redskins

Nelson posted a respectable 24.4 fantasy points against the Titans. Unfortunately for him, he will spend most of the game matched up with Josh Norman against the Washington Redskins.

While Nelson can beat any cornerback deep, Norman is playing like a true elite at the position. With Randall Cobb back and Davante Adams turning into Rodgers favorite target, Nelson could end up as the third or fourth option in this one.

Jimmy Graham (TE – SEA) $6,500 vs. Philadelphia Eagles

As I mentioned in an earlier article, the tight end position is so volatile that fading isn’t as difficult to do. Any of the top tight ends can bust on any given week. They aren’t the true focal point of any offense which makes their range of outcomes wide.

In this case, I expect the crowd to choose Graham at home with a much healthier looking Russell Wilson. With the plethora of offensive weapons and the emergence of C.J. Prosise, I don’t expect Graham will have to be involved in this one.

Seattle Seahawks D/ST vs. Philadelphia Eagles

The Seattle Seahawks are ranked as the number two defense in the league behind the Minnesota Vikings. They just don’t look the same as they have in the past. The defense isn’t nearly as dominant as it once was and they just gave up three rushing touchdowns to LaGarette Blount and the Patriots.

Doug Pederson is committed to running the ball which will negate the Seahawks pass rushing strength. That won’t create as many opportunities for sacks, interceptions or fumbles.

Alternate Plays

Blake Bortles (QB – JAC) $7,200 @ Detroit Lions

Before you turn away from your computer in disgust, hear me out! It’s true that Blake Bortles has regressed as an NFL passer. Luckily for him, he gets to face the toothless Detroit Lions who are third worst in the league at giving up fantasy points to quarterbacks.

They have allowed 20 touchdown passes and have only four interceptions! This game has shootout written all over it even though the Lions are favored by -6.5 as I write this! It’s not like either team has a running game to speak of, so both quarterbacks will have to throw to win.

Theo Riddick (RB – DET) $6,700 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

This is a game I am heavily targeting. The whole world will be on players from the Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts game. A lot of other people will target the Packers @ Redskins.

That sets up perfectly for guys like Theo Riddick! He’s affordable and will be heavily involved in the passing game. While the Jaguars haven’t given up a receiving touchdown to a running back, Riddick could easily change that in week 11!

Allen Robinson (WR – JAC) $7,300 @ Detroit Lions

Up to this point, Robinson has been a monumental bust! He’s single handily destroyed millions of fantasy football teams not only from a season-long perspective but in DFS as well. There is still a chance for him to turn things around and end the season on a high note.

The last three weeks he has 15, 12 and 13 targets and has scored a touchdown in back to back games! The Detroit Lions have given up nine touchdowns and 1,562 receiving yards on 130 catches at this point in the season. Robinson is in as good a spot as any to be the top wide receiver in week 11.

Jordan Reed (TE – WAS) vs. $6,900 Green Bay Packers

Last week, Jordan Reed took a back seat to Vernon Davis only having two catches on four targets! This week he gets to play the Green Bay Packers who are ranked 7th worst against tight ends having given up 647 yards and four touchdowns! Reed will bounce back in a big way against the Packers.

New York Giants D/ST $4,700 vs. Chicago Bears

The Bears have lost their elite offensive threat in Alshon Jeffery. Not that he was doing much anyways but having him alone is enough to open up things for other players. The Giants have quietly put together a month of great defensive performances.

That $200 million defense is finally gelling, and they are ranked 10th best in the league! Jay Cutler is on his way out and has no one he can confidently lock onto. That won’t stop him from trying to force the ball creating opportunities for Landon Collins to get a pick six.


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Arash Ghaemi is a correspondent at FantasyPros. You can also find his work at DraftShot.com and follow him @DraftshotAsh.

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