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Fantasy Football Overvalued/Undervalued: Week 16

by Aaron Medvidofsky
Dec 23, 2016

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Is Jay Ajayi primed for a big bounce back this week against the Bills?

Aaron Medvidofsky analyzes which players he believes are overvalued or undervalued in Week 16.

This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Aaron head to FantasyTruth.

In this column, I reveal the players that I believe are being overvalued or undervalued on a weekly basis. This is based on where I stand on a player in comparison to the FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings, or ECR for short. For Week 16 I’ll be giving you one overvalued and one undervalued player at each position along with the reasons that my opinion differs from the other experts.

Before getting into my Week 16 picks, let’s take a moment and see how I did against the experts in Week 15. These results are based on FantasyPros Fantasy Football Leaders.

Overvalued
  • Ben Roethlisberger (QB – PIT) ECR: 12th – Finished: 13th – Winner: ECR
  • Jeremy Hill (RB – CIN) ECR: 15th – Finished: 19th – Winner: FantasyTruth
  • Larry Fitzgerald (AR – ARI) ECR: 12th – Finished: 58th – Winner: FantasyTruth
  • Eric Ebron (TE – DET) ECR: 12th – Finished: 20th – Winner: FantasyTruth

Undervalued

  • Joe Flacco (QB – BAL) ECR: 18th – Finished: 16th – Winner: Push
  • Justin Forsett (RB – DEN) ECR: 37th – Finished: 36th – Winner: ECR
  • Ty Montgomery (WR – GB) ECR: 39th – Finished: 2nd – Winner: FantasyTruth
  • Jermaine Gresham (TE – ARI) ECR: 16th – Finished: 17th – Winner: ECR

I narrowly edged out the experts with my picks this week. On the season I’ve done significantly better with my overvalued picks and this week is no different.

Overvalued

Russell Wilson (QB – SEA) ECR: 12th

Why the experts like him

Wilson is capable of elite production, as demonstrated last week against the Rams. Tyler Lockett has finally shown flashes of what people hoped he would be this year and gives Wilson a viable deep threat that will open up the field. Wilson’s upside in the passing and rushing game have him in the QB1 discussion.

Why I think he’s overvalued

Wilson has had a relatively easy schedule in recent weeks which makes it easy to forget how bad he has been for portions of the season. In his first matchup with Arizona this year he failed to tally a touchdown and he’s only two weeks removed from a five-interception performance against Green Bay. I don’t want to trust him as my starting QB in championship games.

Jay Ajayi (RB – MIA)  ECR: 13th

Why the experts like him

Ajayi was a late breakout this year, becoming the fourth player in NFL history to rush for 200 yards in back to back games. One of those performances came against Buffalo, who he just happens to be playing this week. Nobody is expecting another 200-yard game but his previous success has many optimistic that he can produce a solid game.

Why I think he’s overvalued

Ajayi has failed to eclipse 100 yards in six games and many of those were against worse defensive teams than the Bills. The Dolphins offensive line has been struggling to create openings for him and he has been losing work to Damien Williams in the red zone. I have him as a low-end RB2 this week.

Michael Crabtree (RB – OAK)  ECR: 8th

Why the experts like him

Crabtree has been the go-to red zone option for the Raiders this year and with Vegas predicting 53 points there should be plenty of those opportunities. Amari Cooper is banged up and should draw the Colts top coverage corner this week.

Why I think he’s overvalued

Crabtree has been too inconsistent for me to start him as my WR1 this week. It’s possible he ends up there but you’re basically counting on a touchdown as he typically doesn’t gain a lot of yardage on a weekly basis. I still like Amari Cooper more this week and I don’t think there’s enough room for two top 10 receivers despite the great matchup.

Martellus Bennett (TE – NE) ECR: 9th

Why the experts like him

Tom Brady loves throwing to his tight ends and the matchup with the Jets this week is very exploitable. With their ability to stop the run this should be a very pass heavy game plan, with the possibility that the Patriots rely on Bennett to move the chains.

Why I think he’s overvalued

Even without Rob Gronkowski in the lineup, Bennett has failed to produce respectable fantasy numbers. He has averaged under three targets per game over the last five weeks with only one touchdown in that span, which includes a game against the Jets. There are too many mouths to feed in New England for me to trust him.

Undervalued

Blake Bortles (QB – JAC) (QB – JAC) ECR: 20th

Why the experts dislike him

Blake Bortles has been an awful NFL quarterback this year. In starting him you are basically counting on garbage time production to get viable fantasy numbers from week to week. Following three disastrous performances in a row, it’s tough to trust him.

Why I think he’s undervalued

Bortles has had a tough string of matchups in recent weeks, facing Denver, Minnesota and Houston. Things get significantly easier this week as he takes on Tennessee at home. Before this recent three game stretch, he had gone five straight weeks with at least two touchdowns. It won’t be pretty but I think Bortles will get you low-end QB1 numbers this week.

Doug Martin (RB – TB) ECR: 22nd

Why the experts dislike him

Martin has not looked great since returning from injury. Despite his heavy workload he has yet to average 4 yards per carry in a single game this year. A performance of that caliber would mean you’re counting on a touchdown for him to be relevant in week 16.

Why I think he’s undervalued

Despite his struggles in recent weeks I always love players that are locked into 15+ carries. The Buccaneers will try to slow the game down and keep the ball out of Drew Brees‘ hands as much as possible. The Saints have done a better job at limiting opposing rushing yards but have allowed 20 total touchdowns to running backs on the year, good for second worst in the NFL.

Pierre Garcon (WR – WAS) ECR: 43rd

Why the experts dislike him

There are a few mouths to feed in Washington and Garcon isn’t exactly the most exciting one of them. His ceiling is capped due to his lack of touchdown and big play upside and people are hesitant to start him as a result.

Why I think he’s undervalued

Garcon has been one of the most consistent receivers in the NFL this year. He has tallied less than four receptions only twice on the year and missed double digit yards per catch only twice as well. He’ll get the volume to be a locked-in WR3 this week with enough target potential to do substantially more.

Charles Clay (TE – BUF) ECR: 18th

Why the experts dislike him

The Buffalo Bills passing game has been far from consistent this season and Clay has suffered as a result. Unable to establish any real consistency this year he is a mid-range TE2 by most people’s standards. This puts him off of the starting radar.

Why I think he’s undervalued

Clay has put together solid performances in back to back games, tallying a touchdown in each. The Miami Dolphins have trouble stopping tight ends and having Sammy Watkins back as a deep threat really helps to open things up underneath for Clay. Based on the matchup he has borderline TE1 potential this week and is a streamable option if you’re needy at the position.


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