Can Drew Brees bounce back on the road?

Last week I nailed all my alternate picks and most of my fades. The only one that looked bad was Jordy Nelson as he scored and had a big game against the Houston Texans. Spencer Ware, DeAndre Hopkins, Russell Wilson, Jimmy Graham and the Baltimore Ravens all did well from a fantasy perspective.

That didn’t stop me from booking a loss of $100. Daily fantasy is a process and even if you play it perfectly with your picks your roster construction may not match up. Daily fantasy sports is way more than just picks in an article. I see a lot of people get upset when an “expert’s” picks don’t play out like they should. What about their roster construction, bankroll management or game selection? Those all play a part in the long term. When I say “trust the process” it’s a mantra that focuses me in on the things that matter the most. One bad week doesn’t take away from my success elsewhere. One big week also doesn’t define me as a player and it shouldn’t define you either.

Now who should we fade this week?

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Matthew Stafford (DET) $8,500 vs Chicago Bears

The Lions have taken over the lead in the NFC North as the Minnesota Vikings have faded down the stretch. Matthew Stafford, without the comfort of Calvin Johnson, has guided himself into MVP consideration. It’s only natural that we’d want to start him at home against the floundering Bears. Not so fast. This is a late-season divisional match up where quarterbacks historically score fewer fantasy points. The Bears are also a very respectable 10th best against fantasy quarterbacks. Fade the recent success and find better spots elsewhere. Stafford won’t have to throw for 300+ yards to win this game.

Jordan Howard (CHI) $7,800 @ Detroit Lions

Howard was a very easy play against the San Francisco 49ers last week, and he delivered with three rushing touchdowns. This week it’s not as clear cut. The Lions defense has drastically improved throughout the season. The Bears are also projected to be playing from behind which sets up for a negative game script for Howard. The Lions are also top five in time of possession as Stafford milks the clock with short passes. While Howard will get a lot of use that doesn’t mean he will score more than a touchdown while the public chases last week’s points.

Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG) $8,500 vs Dallas Cowboys

Don’t buy into the Sportscener hype! I don’t watch ESPN anymore as it dilutes my reads in fantasy football. That’s a conversation for a different day, but I’m sure they will no doubt have replays of “the catch” all week leading up to this game. The public will buy into the hype, but you shouldn’t. Remember, as mentioned above, quarterbacks score less in the second game of divisional match ups. The Cowboys have won all season by controlling the clock and keeping an offense off the field. They will do the same against the New York Giants.

Ladarius Green (PIT) $5,800 @ Buffalo Bills

Green burst onto the scene last week just in time for a potential late-season Steelers playoff run. Jesse James is Kyle Rudolph 2.0 in that he doesn’t get many yards but can score around the red zone. Green is a welcome addition to the Steelers playoff run, but his salary has jumped $1,300. The Bills are 14th against the tight end position but it’s too difficult to foresee a huge game out of Green in this one. There are too many other ways the Steelers can dominate.

Denver Broncos $4,900 @ Tennessee Titans

The Broncos aren’t as dominant as last year and are especially susceptible against the run. More on that later, but they have given up 197 rushing yards and three touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks. The Titans offense plays at another level at home, and they will no doubt be motivated to win after a Texans loss this past weekend. Marcus Mariota is in a great spot to have a big rushing game as DeMarco Murray wears down the front seven.

Alternate Plays

Drew Brees (NO) $8,700 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The on-paper match up was incredible last week. The Lions had given up 22 touchdowns and 3,201 yards passing through the air. Brees historically dominates at home and everyone expected a shootout. Instead, we witnessed our fantasy lineups go down in flames as Brees had his worst game at home this season. While Brees is on the road he will no doubt be extra motivated to get back on track against the Buccaneers. The Buccaneers defense has improved, but they still have given up 16 touchdown passes to opposing wide receivers and 19 touchdown passes to opposing quarterbacks.

DeMarco Murray (TEN) $7,900 vs Denver Broncos

The Broncos defense can be beat through a team’s commitment to the run. It negates their pass rush and wears down the front seven. This year, they have given up 1,764 total yards, 53 receptions and nine total touchdowns to opposing running backs. The Titans will no doubt try and control the game with DeMarco Murray. Murray is in the perfect low-owned contrarian spot to have a huge game.

DeSean Jackson (WAS) $5,800 @ Philadelphia Eagles

Were the Philadelphia Eagles actually good on defense this year? At one point they were ranked as one of the best in the league even with low grades from their cornerbacks. At this point in the season they have given up 12 touchdowns and 2,296 yards to opposing wide receivers. This is also a great revenge narrative as the Eagles flamed Jackson on the way out of Philadelphia. Jackson is in a great spot to have a monster game and give you the opportunity to raise the upside of your lineup.

Antonio Gates (SD) $5,200 @ Carolina Panthers

After three straight nine target games that resulted in a touchdown reception, Gates only had four targets, four catches and 37 yards. This week he gets to play the Carolina Panthers who are in the middle of a massive emotional letdown in 2016. They are ranked dead last against opposing tight ends at this point in the season.

Indianapolis Colts ($4,400) vs Houston Texans

I am well aware of the shortcomings of the Colts defense. They are third worst against quarterbacks, 10th worst against running backs and ninth worst against opposing tight ends. They are coming off an encouraging performance against a below average quarterback. Luckily for them, they get another below average quarterback with the division on the line. This is a low-owned, value defense that could have multiple sacks and potentially a pick-six! The Colts special teams, at home on fast field surface, also boosts their value in this one.

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Arash Ghaemi is a correspondent at FantasyPros. You can also find his work at DraftShot.com and follow him @DraftshotAsh.