My time writing about player fades is coming to an end. I hope it was as enlightening for you as it was for me. Fading players is always risky, but winning a tournament is high risk and high reward. You won’t win many of them. Remember, there can only be one guy who gets to the top spot and only the top five pays out a significant amount of money. When playing guaranteed prize pools, you may only win 20% of the time but that 20% will make up for all the times you miss.
Think about that for a second. You will lose in guaranteed prize pools eight out of every 10 times you play! That is a lot and if you notice the top lineups always have creative plays. There is something to that, and most of the time it’s not random. Fading players, and winning GPPs, is calculated and well planned out. Just because you lose doesn’t mean it’s not working. Those creative plays start with fading the obvious plays.
This weekend I turned a profit but that big win did not come. I’ve been playing for three years and have had some big weekends and other not so big weekends. I’ve had some gut wrenching weeks, like Thanksgiving, and some amazing ones. I had my biggest week yet in Week 2 this year and then topped it four weeks later. It’s an up and down roller coaster and I wouldn’t have it any other way!
Now who should we fade this week?
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Philip Rivers ($8,200) @ Cleveland Browns
This one is super risky but the angle I’m taking here has been consistent all year. The Browns are the worst team in the NFL and are ranked second-worst in the league against quarterbacks. Having given up 31 passing touchdowns and eight interceptions, it looks like one of the best on-paper matchups of the weekend. The problem is that the Chargers have to travel to an East Coast time zone. We’ve seen teams travel from West to East and struggle all year long. I also firmly believe that it is very hard to go 0-16. As a professional football player, going 0-16 has to be one of the worst marks on your entire career. Because of that, I am calling the upset in this game with a multi-turnover game from Rivers in the process.
LeSean McCoy ($9,100) vs Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins are locked in as the No. 6 seed with the Bills breathing down their neck. I expect this to be a low-scoring, grind it out game with only one side able to force their run-first offense down the others throat. In this case, I am choosing the Dolphins running game against the sixth-worst run defense of the Buffalo Bills. That means fewer possessions for McCoy and the Bills. Mike Gillislee is also stealing red zone work from McCoy having scored three rushing touchdowns the last three games!
Jordy Nelson ($7,800) vs Minnesota Vikings
The Packers are rolling after Rodgers declaration that they will run the table. Jordy is dominating the league in red zone targets with 27. The next closest is Brandon Marshall with 21 and Michael Crabtree with 20. This is an excellent fade spot as Nelson will no doubt be matched up on Xavier Rhodes. While the rest of the Vikings defense has given up, Rhodes has still played well all year long. This sets up to be a Davante Adams game as the Vikings have trouble defending the slot receiver.
Antonio Gates ($5,400) @ Cleveland Browns
Gates is two touchdowns away from breaking the record for tight ends. The problem is that this has been the case for the last two weeks. He has had two solid match ups in a row and has underperformed in each one. I may be jumping off the train a stop too early but I am going all in on my Browns upset special this week. That includes fading Gates on the verge of breaking a record.
Seattle Seahawks ($5,000) vs Arizona Cardinals
David Johnson is an unstoppable force of nature. The last time these two teams played Johnson had 171 total yards and eight receptions. The Cardinals are hell bent on going down with the captain of the ship and with a struggling Palmer, that title goes to David Johnson. Johnson will be low owned against a struggling Seahawks defense that is without Earl Thomas. The Seahawks have struggled without the ball-hawking Thomas and will have a hard time matching up with the transformer-like Johnson.
Alternate Plays
Tom Savage ($6,300) vs Cincinnati Bengals
The Brock Osweiler benching finally happened in a game with the Texans’ season on the line. Savage is the tall, strong-armed QB the Texans thought they had in Osweiler. He was also drafted by Bill O’Brien which means that O’Brien no doubt has a personal investment in his success. While the Texans are heavily invested in Osweiler’s success, in the face of playoff elimination there is no more room to be patient with the erratic QB who can’t get the ball to one of the league’s best play makers. The Texans face a Bengals team at home with nothing left to play for. Savage is hands down one of my favorite GPP plays of the week!
Todd Gurley ($7,900) vs San Francisco 49ers
Yes, I know the Rams are the definition of a dumpster fire. Jeff Fisher took Rams football back to the 1980s with his lack of innovation as a head coach. His helicopter parent coaching style stripped the Rams of any identity on offense and made their star player look like the second coming of Trent Richardson. With all that being said, the 49ers are arguably a bigger dumpster fire and have given up 22 rushing touchdowns on the ground. After playing the Seahawks, it will feel like the Rams are playing a division three college football team this Saturday. I expect Gurley to take out the season’s frustrations on the poor, rebuilding San Francisco 49ers.
DeAndre Hopkins ($6,600) vs Cincinnati Bengals
With Osweiler at quarterback, Hopkins caught zero passes on two targets. With Savage at quarterback, Hopkins caught eight passes for 84 yards! I didn’t watch the game but I heard that Hopkins had a visible pep in his step with Savage at QB. I expect this bromance to blossom in full bloom this Saturday against the Bengals. I’m calling a two-touchdown game for Hopkins this weekend.
Jordan Reed ($7,000) @ Chicago Bears
Reed has had a tough two weeks having only two targets, two catches and 16 yards! While Reed has struggled, so have the Redskins as they slowly slide out of the playoff race. With their backs against the wall, I expect the Redskins to find a way to get their best playmaker the ball. Look for Reed to have a bounce back game against the Bears.
Green Bay Packers ($4,600) vs Minnesota Vikings
The Packers are the 23rd ranked team defense but have played inspired football as of late. The Vikings were embarrassed at home against the Colts, one of the worst defenses in the league. Expect a blood bath in this one. The Vikings defense is frustrated the offense can’t get it together. As a defense, you can only stay inspired for so long when you have Sam Bradford as your quarterback. Captain check down is in line for a beat down in Lambeau.
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Arash Ghaemi is a correspondent at FantasyPros. You can also find his work at DraftShot.com and follow him @DraftshotAsh.