Will Kyle Zimmer find his way to the Royals’ rotation or to their bullpen this year?
A prospect on the verge of the majors is a highly-prized asset in dynasty leagues. For many players, their value is never higher than when in Triple-A and flying high on top-100 prospects lists.
All too often, however, prospect fatigue sets in when the jump to the big leagues takes longer than expected. The fantasy baseball fraternity has fallen out of love with these players, but maybe 2017 is their year.
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Alex Meyer (RHP – LAA)
Highest prospect rank: No. 14 (Baseball Prospectus)
MLB experience: 28 IP
The giant 6’9” former first-rounder, who has transitioned from starter to reliever and back to starter, will hope to be part of the Angels’ rotation sometime in 2017. The right-hander only pitched 54 innings in 2016 but enjoyed his best stretch as a starter with four starts in Triple-A, striking out 25 batters in 21 ⅓ innings while only allowing two earned runs.
In his six MLB starts, he maintained a strikeout rate of over 10 SO/9 but was tagged with 16 earned runs in 25 ⅓ innings. There is definite prospect fatigue with Alex Meyer but his obvious talent, coupled with the Angels’ lack of pitching depth present opportunities for the rookie to revitalize his career.
Robert Stephenson (RHP – CIN)
Highest prospect rank: No. 16 (Baseball Prospectus)
MLB experience: 37 IP
There are 145 starting pitchers ranked within the Expert Consensus Rankings on FantasyPros, but despite being a lock for the Reds’ rotation, Robert Stephenson is not one of them. Although this will likely change as more rankings are added, it demonstrates how far the Reds’ former first-round pick has fallen in the consciousness of the fantasy baseball world.
The 23-year-old threw an impressive workload of 173 innings last season split between Triple-A and the majors with 151 strikeouts, but it is his 6.08 ERA in eight MLB starts that jumps out. Stephenson has appeared as a top-100 prospect for four straight years and looks to have matured from a thrower to a pitcher, but his future will be determined by whether he can improve the control issues that haunt him.
Mark Appel (RHP – PHI)
Highest prospect rank: No. 17 (MLB.com)
MLB experience: 0 IP
The Astros drafted the Stanford strikeout leader with the first overall pick in 2013, leaving the Cubs to take Kris Bryant with the second. The right-hander pitched over 250 innings in the minors with 5.12 ERA and 7.86 SO/9 before the Astros sent him to the Phillies in December 2015 as part of the package that netted them Ken Giles.
Appel made a promising start for the Lehigh Valley IronPigs, going 3-0 in his first four starts with a 1.64 ERA before hitting the DL in May with a shoulder strain and eventually being shut down for the season after undergoing surgery to remove a bone spur in his elbow. It is expected that Mark Appel will be fully fit at the start of Spring Training. He is still only 25 years old and will enter the 2017 season with far more detractors than supporters. If he can come close to harnessing the talent, he showed from an early age, then look for him to join the Phillies’ rotation which already features the exciting young trio of Aaron Nola, Jerad Eickhoff and Vincent Velasquez.
Kyle Zimmer (RHP – KC)
Highest prospect rank: No. 23 (Baseball America)
MLB experience: 0 IP
In 2013, Kyle Zimmer was promoted to Double-A and made four starts, striking out 27 in 18 ⅔ innings with 1.93 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. He was one of the best pitching prospects on the planet. Since then, he has pitched four innings in 2014, 64 innings in 2015 and just five innings in 2016.
Injuries have beset the right-hander over the last three years, the most severe being TOS (Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. the compression of neck & shoulder nerves), for which he had season-ending surgery in July 2016. This was similar to the procedure that Mets’ SP Matt Harvey underwent. Fellow pitchers Jaime Garcia, Chris Carpenter and Josh Beckett have all had TOS surgery, which boasts around 80%-90% chance for full recovery.
As reported by Royals’ reporter Jeffrey Flanagan in October, Kyle Zimmer completed a four-week throwing program and will be ready for Spring Training. It is debatable whether the 25-year-old will still possess top-of-the-rotation stuff but given his durability issues, the Royals may decide to utilize him in the bullpen.
Jesse Winker (LF/RF – CIN)
Highest prospect rank: No. 26 (MLB.com)
MLB experience: 0 IP
The former first-round pick entered the 2016 season as one of the top outfield prospects in baseball but hampered by the recurrence of a wrist injury; his power disappeared with just three home runs. As a 19-year-old, he led the Pioneer League in OBP, and since then the left-hander has been a polished hitter with a determination to get on-base. He hit 16, 15 and 13 home runs in the three years before last season and there was a presumption that greater power would come.
The 23-year-old is a below-average fielder and lacks the speed to nab more than a handful of stolen bases, but he walked as many times as he struck out in Triple-A last year with .303 AVG and .389 OBP. Almost an homage to Joey Votto.
Taylor Guerrieri (RHP – TB)
Highest prospect rank: No. 44 (MLB.com)
MLB experience: 0 IP
Taylor Guerrieri will probably never be the front-line starter that was predicted before his 2013 Tommy John surgery or 2014 drugs suspension, but he could still become a solid member of the Rays’ rotation.
Last year, the 24-year-old made 26 starts in Double-A with 3.76 ERA and an uninspiring 5.49 SO/9. He lost velocity on his fastball but still possesses three good pitches. There could be an opening in the rotation for Guerrieri as the Rays’ pitching staff is set to undergo radical changes with Alex Cobb, Chris Archer and Drew Smyly all apparently available on the trade market.
Zach Lee (RHP – SD)
Highest prospect rank: No. 45 (MLB.com)
MLB experience: 4 IP
Having been claimed off waivers by the Padres in December, there is renewed optimism that Zach Lee can revive his tarnished prospect reputation with a new start at Petco Park. The right-hander is a workhorse with nearly 800 innings in the minors in 150 starts.
The batter-friendly environment of the PCL has not helped him, where the former first-round pick has a 4.92 ERA in 411 innings with 6.2 SO/9. The Padres’ pitching staff is in a transitional phase so there should be an opportunity for Lee to get some big league starts or at least become the swingman in the bullpen.
Phillip Ervin (OF – CIN)
Highest prospect rank: No. 63 (Baseball Prospectus)
MLB experience: 0 AB
Former first-round pick Phillip Ervin became a highly touted prospect after hitting .331/.425/.564 in 2013. Although his reputation has diminished, the right-hander possesses the speed and contact tools to make it in the big leagues. Ervin has a career .368 OBP in Double-A, aided by 65 walks to 88 strikeouts, and has stolen exactly 100 bases over the last three seasons.
He has the defensive skills to start in center field in 2017 and would look good at the top of the Reds’ lineup. It is possible that he might eventually only make it as a bench bat for an organization not known for the successful graduation of their position prospects.
Pierce Johnson (RHP – CHC)
Highest prospect rank: No. 83 (Baseball Prospectus)
MLB experience: 0 IP
The former first-round pick, from the same draft as Michael Wacha & Lance McCullers, could eventually follow in the footsteps of Kyle Hendricks and Jake Arrieta to a Cy Young-caliber season, with guidance from Cubs’ pitching coach Chris Bosio.
In 2015, the right-hander dominated Double-A with 2.31 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 33 starts while striking out 163 batters. He struggled with the jump up to Triple-A in 2016, and three separate injuries compounded his difficulties. After 11 starts and 7.75 ERA,
Johnson was moved to the bullpen where he regained his form and saw his strikeout rate jump to an eye-watering 14.11 SO/9 with 3.22 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Spring Training will give a better idea as to the future role the Cubs intend for Pierce Johnson.
Mitch Haniger (CF – SEA)
Highest prospect rank: First round pick and Brewers’ No. 3 prospect in 2013
MLB experience: 109 at-bats
The former first-round pick will be vying for playing time in the Mariners’ outfield with Seth Smith, Ben Gamel and Leonys Martin after being traded with Jean Segura for Taijuan Walker and Ketel Marte. The 26-year-old destroyed Triple-A pitching in 2016 with a slash line of .341/.428/1.098 before blasting five home runs in 34 games for the Diamondbacks. Mariners’ GM Jerry Dipoto described the 26-year-old as a “later bloomer” and likened him to Kole Calhoun, a player who thrived under his charge in Anaheim.
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Gavin Tramps is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Gavin, check out his archive or find him @_tramps.
