The Dolphins may have no answer for Antonio Brown on Sunday
The early game on Sunday (1:05pm ET) features an offensive powerhouse in the Steelers who are rested and healthy playing at home. On the other side of the ball will be the visiting Dolphins who will do their best just to keep up. Vegas has the spread set at -10, the largest of the four matchups during this Wild Card round. Perhaps that could be due to a Dolphins secondary that will be missing key starters on Sunday. The last time these teams met, Roethlisberger was returning from his mid-season knee injury and was hampered by mobility. All signs point to this offensive having no issues bouncing back from their Week 6 struggles, where they lost to the Fins, 15 – 30. Let’s not forget that Miami will be missing both of their starting safeties and Byron Maxwell will likely be out as well. The team also ranks as one of the worst rush defenses in the league and face arguably the best running back in the league.
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Now in case you forgot what happened in that Week 6 game, Jay Ajayi broke out, and he broke out in a monster way rushing for 204 yards and two TDs. Since that game, he’s rushed for 1,155 yards, more than any other back in the league! As for the signal caller, it won’t be Tannehill, but career-backup Matt Moore who has 28 starts under his belt, none of them being of the playoff variety. His finish to 2016 gives Dolphins fans some hope (721 yards, eight touchdowns, three interceptions with two wins and a loss), but the sample size is small and there’s a reason he’s never been a true starter in nine seasons as a pro.
Even with the large spread, the consensus of experts like the Steelers to cover. See their reasoning below.
More Game Picks:
Raiders at Texans (-3.5) | Lions at Seahawks (-8) | Giants at Packers (-4.5)
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“The Steelers are very good (6-2) at Heinz Field and are red hot with 7 wins in a row. Miami did beat them earlier this year, though, so they could hang tight in a close one.”
– Kevin Roberts (Breaking Football) “I think Pitt wins this one but by 6 points, so Miami covers the spread. Miami has shown an odd resilience this season and the ability to get back into games when it seems like they’re ready to fold.”
– Andy Holloway (The Fantasy Footballers) “The Dolphins have a knack for finding ways to win and, while I don’t think they take down the Steelers in Pittsburgh, it should be a good game. I’d envision something in the 24-17 range in favor of Pittsburgh.”
– Donald Gibson (Fantasy Fusion) “I expect the Steelers to win, but this seems like a public-team line. Matt Moore is no great shakes, but I’m not so sure the Pittsburgh defense should be favored by 10 over any playoff team. Opponents scored an average of 20.4 points against the Steelers this season, but Miami’s implied total under this line is only 18 points. My fingers are crossed for a backdoor cover.”
– Greg Smith (TwoQBs) “I imagine the Steelers jump out to a 2 or 3 TD lead and the Dolphins crawl their way back into it by the end and get within the spread. Steelers win by less than 10.”
– Matt De Lima (ScoutFantasy) “The Dolphins are 9-2 over their last 11, including beating Pittsburgh earlier in the season. It looks like Matt Moore is under center again this week though so I don’t think a straight up win is in the books, but 10 points are too many.”
– Dan Clasgens (Get Sports Info) “Looks like I’m making the always-wise move (sarcasm font) of picking a lot of road ‘dogs this weekend. I still think the Steelers win this one, but this looks like a great spot for a late-score cover. While Pittsburgh has a great offense and should put up plenty of points, the Dolphins passing game is actually pretty good (including Matt Moore) and I could see them keeping it close against a mediocre Steelers pass defense.”
– Nick Raducanu (ProjectRoto) “After seeing the Steelers almost lose in overtime a week ago to the Browns (granted playing with backups), I have a hard time believing the Dolphins get blown out regardless of QB. If Miami leans on the running game this contest should be closer than many believe.”
– Terrance Bridgett (Fantasy Six Pack) “I think Pittsburgh wins this game, but 10 points is a lot. This spread likely has a lot to do with Matt Moore starting at QB, but he has been fairly decent in this three games throwing a combined eight touchdowns. Ajayi has been good too, so this won’t be a game Pittsburgh can just roll through.”
– Joe Bond (Fantasy Six Pack) “This line seems tall considering that the Dolphins easily handled the Steelers earlier this season, jump-starting Miami’s 9-2 finish. Run defense is Pittsburgh’s greatest weakness, and the Dolphins should be able to exploit it just as they did in mid-October, when Jay Ajayi trucked the Steelers for 204 rushing yards and two TDs. Miami outgained Pittsburgh 474-297 that day and dominated time of possession. Not that this will be a carbon copy of that earlier game, of course, but Miami is capable of keeping it close.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (The Football Girl) “This line is just a bit too high. Miami’s offense ranks 13th in weighted DVOA, so even with Matt Moore under center they have a capable offense. Even if it’s just with a garbage time score, they should be able to keep this one in single digits.”
– Brett Talley (The Fantasy Fix) “The Steelers will show up and win this game, but the scrappy Dolphins keep it close.”
– Wayne Bretsky (BretskyBall) “The Dolphins destroyed Pittsburgh in mid-October, and while I’m not predicting that in this game, the Steelers won’t return the favor this weekend.”
– Adam Sutton (DraftStars) “Even though many things have changed, it is still worth saying that the Dolphins did beat Pittsburgh earlier this season. I think Matt Moore is capable to do just enough to prevent the Steelers from winning by double digits.”
– Kaz Kalita (DraftStars) “In week 6 the Dolphins manhandled the Steelers to the tune of 15 points. I don’t think they will beat the Steelers at home, but I’ll take them +10.”
– Staff Rankings (Fantasy Knuckleheads) “The Steelers are a different team at home, to be sure, but a team laying 10 against a team which beat them by 15 earlier this season seems ludicrous.”
– Raymond Summerlin (Rotoworld) “The Steelers have a significant advantage in this game and there is potential for a blowout. Still, Miami is better than they’ve been given credit for this week and this is a big spread.”
– Daniel Marcus (Fantasy-Phenoms) “Miami. The Steelers are finally able to enter the playoffs with their three main offensive weapons at full health, but even with Ben, Brown and Bell, I’m not taking them for -10. The Dolphins are a playoff team and even on the road, I’m not giving up 10 points. I’m taking Miami and the points, I like their chances to keep this game close. The Steelers defense has given up at least 20 points in each of the last 4 weeks, to the likes of such powerhouses as literally every other team in their division. I think the Steelers are going to make a run and should win this game, but they aren’t blowing anyone out.”
– David Biggs (Drink Five) |
“The 10 seems hefty, but the Steelers offense is a machine at home. The backdoor will be open, but I’m thinking this ends something like Steelers 33, Dolphins 19.”
– Michael Beller (Sports Illustrated) “Many people I trust are telling me to not count the Dolphins out of this game. Give them a TEN point dog status, and I’m sure they will all pick the Fins. Not me. Big Ben at home against Matt Moore and the Dolphins shouldn’t be a close game and I’ll take the Steelers to cover.”
– Jason Moore (The Fantasy Footballers) “Too many offensive weapons on Pittsburgh. They are well rested and ready to make a run in the playoffs. I’m taking the terrible towel and laying the 10 points at home.”
– Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire) “The Steelers favored by 10 should be obtained by halftime, but my concern is they fall asleep at the wheel and the Dolphins put up pity points to ruin the spread. I’m going to stick with the Steelers by 10, but this is my least favorite pick of the week.”
– Mike Rigz (Gridiron Experts) “This is the first time that Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown have all been healthy heading into a playoff game and that’s huge. The Dolphins aren’t going to get another 200-yards rushing game from Jay Ajayi as the Steelers defense is playing much better these days. I see Pittsburgh pulling away late to cover the spread.”
– Walton Spurlin (FantasySharks) “A -10 spread is pretty considerable in the playoffs, but there’s a reason for it. The Dolphins will likely be without starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill, forcing backup Matt Moore to start in a road playoff game. Ick. Pittsburgh’s trio of Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown will be too overwhelming for Miami’s defense.”
– Zach Greubel (Gridiron Experts) “With Matt Moore against the well-rested starters of the Steelers, it should combine to make this game a forgone conclusion early in the 3rd quarter.”
– Richard Savill (Fantasy Six Pack) “I can’t see Miami keeping this one close. The Steelers are money at home.”
– Sean Beazley (EDSFootball) “With such a big number, Vegas is trying to push me to the Dolphins. But the Steelers are one of the hottest teams in the league, winning seven in a row to end the regular season, while Miami was embarrassed by the Patriots at home in Week 17, losing by 21 points. With lopsided road losses to Cincinnati and Baltimore also on their resume, I think the Dolphins could be in for another beat-down this weekend.”
– Jason Willan (Gridiron Experts) “The Steelers are healthy, well rested, and clicking on all cylinders at home. I don’t typically like this big of a spread in a playoff game, but the Dolphins are a team just happy to be here.”
– Mike Tagliere (Pro Football Focus) “The Dolphins have been absolutely destroyed in the passing game over the final three weeks, and there is no way they stop the Steelers from scoring at least 25 points. As for the Dolphins, a banged up Tannehill and Ajayi don’t leave me feeling confident in their ability to keep this close.”
– Jake Ciely (RotoExperts) “Miami has one of the weakest resumes in the NFL Playoffs. Seven of their ten wins came against teams that are picking in the Top-10 of the NFL Draft and they were only (1-4) against teams with winning records. That one win was at home against Pittsburgh, but QB Ben Roethlisberger played the second half with a torn meniscus. Big Ben has a 116.7 QB rating at home and the Dolphins are 30th against the run. I like Big Ben and RB Le’Veon Bell to both have monster games and blow the Dolphins out in Pittsburgh.”
– Derek Lofland (Fantasy Football Maniax) “Fresh off a blowout by the only other contender in the AFC, Miami and their backup QB are happy just to be in the dance. It’ll show.”
– Jon Collins (Fantasy Sports LR) “Facing Le’Veon Bell is bad news as is, but the Dolphins allowed the 2nd most rushing yards per game over the last 3 weeks of the regular season (169.3/game). Facing Big Ben, and A.B. is bad news as is, but the Dolphins allowed the 3rd most passing yards over the last 3 weeks… You get the picture. Bad look for Miami, and I don’t see how they put up enough points to keep this one interesting.”
– Leonard Francis (Maximize Your Odds) “The Dolphins doubled up the Steelers back in Week 6 (30-15), but that game was played in Miami. That day produced Ben Roethlisberger’s knee injury, too. Now Miami’s the team with an injured starting QB — plus a defense that’s banged up at linebacker and safety.”
– Kevin English (Draft Sharks) “Pittsburgh might sport the best balance of offense and defense among all the playoff teams. Even if that doesn’t wind up being enough to beat New England, it makes me pretty comfy in picking the Steelers to beat up Miami.”
– Matt Schauf (Draft Sharks) “The spread is extremely high, especially for a playoff game, but the Steelers are rolling right now. And, the Dolphins are limping into the playoffs. Expect the Steelers to stay hot and win by two touchdowns.”
– Marc Caviglia (Bruno Boys) “I can see Miami losing by more than 15 here, as Pittsburgh’s offense is well rested against a Miami defense that has given up 66 combined points over their last two games. I cannot back Matt Moore in the extreme cold at Heinz Field, also known as the locale for Big Ben’s touchdown extravaganza.”
– Nick Mariano (RotoBaller) “Week 6 was a long time ago, when Miami shockingly went into Pittsburgh and won 30-15. The defensive line of Miami took control, and forced Roethlisberger to throw 2 interceptions before leaving with a knee injury. Jay Ajayi also broke loose for over 200 yards on the ground in that game. Neither will happen in the cold of Pittsburgh this time around. The Steelers simply are the better team with better players. Miami put together a nice season, but Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Brown and Ben Roethlisberger are just going to be too much for them to handle this time around.”
– Rich Piazza (Fantasy Shed) “I honestly feel Miami is going to lose by more than two touchdowns. This one will be all but over before halftime even!”
– The FFGhost (Dynasty League Football) “Matt Moore may have gone 2-1 as a starter down the stretch but the wins came against the Jets and Bills. The Steelers know what the playoffs are about and will keep their foot on the gas for a big win over the Dolphins.”
– Brad Richter (Going For 2) “Offense favors the Steelers. Defense favors the Steelers. The Steelers are a different team at home, Miami is a different team from when they beat the Steelers prior — the Dolphins starting QB, Center, and possibly best Corner are all gone for this game. The blowout potential is likely here.”
– R.C. Fischer (Fantasy Football Metrics) “It’s a big number, but the Steelers are playing as well as any team in football and Big Ben has been dominant at home — 70.8% completion rate, 20 TDs (3.33/G) and 8.47 Y/A in six home games this season.”
– Kevin Hanson (EDSFootball) – Sean Koerner (STATS)
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Thanks to the experts for giving us their picks. Agree or disagree? You can discuss in the comment section below. Be sure to also check out and subscribe to our latest podcast.
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