Will the Patriots cover and win by 3 or more?
An entire season of football will culminate Sunday when the Patriots and Falcons meet for Super Bowl LI inside NRG Stadium in Houston. Year after year, this single game is viewed by more eyeballs than any other event in the United States; and come Sunday (6:30pm ET), this one could set a new record with two powerhouse teams facing off.
In one corner, you have the four-time champion New England Patriots, who are easily in the conversation of the greatest dynasties ever. They’re led by arguably the greatest coach ever, and in the same breathe, arguably the greatest quarterback ever. This team traded away their best individual defender in the middle of the season and still finished the season with the No. 1 ranked defense (I see all of you out there yelling about the easy schedule they faced). This is the NFL we’re talking about. The best players in the world step onto the field each week, yet this Patriots team executed their way to a league-best, 14-2 record. No one has any idea outside of the Patriots, who will be the teams running back in any given week. There is simply no other team that maximizes their roster quite like the Pats and that’s what makes them so special and dangerous.
The Falcons, and more specifically Matt Ryan, has only faced the Patriots twice in his career. Both games resulted in losses, but that was the old Matt Ryan. Today, we’re talking about the likely league MVP version that guided this Falcons team to the No. 1 ranked offense. For as good as the Patriots are, the Falcons are a juggernaut that averaged 24.2 pts in losses and 33.8 pts throughout the regular season. They haven’t slowed down in the playoffs putting up 44 and 36 against the Packers and Seahawks respectively. Vegas oddsmakers have this Super Bowl at the highest over/under ever in the Super Bowl era.
For the casual fan, all you need to know is this couldn’t be a much better matchup for the big game. This article could easily become 10,000+ words discussing just the storyline alone. Rookie head coach (Falcons), the mix-and-match backfield (Patriots), Roger Goodell and the Patriots’ not-so-loving relationship, the temporarily lost playbook (Falcons)… the list goes on. The spread is set at three points with the Patriots favored. Our consensus of experts are providing their final game picks for the 2016-17 season. Find out who they like to cover this Sunday.
New England Patriots (-3) |
Atlanta Falcons (+3) |
60%of Experts |
40%of Experts |
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“The top defense vs the top offense. In Super Bowls, it almost always goes to the defense (see: last year).”
– Jason Moore (The Fantasy Footballers) “Super Bowl 51 has an insane Total projection and the #1 offense vs the #1 defense. Historically, that’s been bad news for the offensive team. In this case, Matt Ryan makes his Super Bowl debut against a team that’s been here 7 times now in the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era. That can’t be good for the Falcons.”
– Kevin Roberts (Breaking Football) “I’m shocked the line is this low in favor of the Pats. I get that it’s the super bowl and games are faster/quicker, but I don’t see how the Falcons come within 5.”
– Tony Mauriello (ProjectRoto) “While it’s true that the Patriots haven’t faced an offense quite as high-flying as the Falcons this season, it is also true that Atlanta hasn’t faced a coach and quarterback combination as legendary as New England’s. Also, the talk of the Falcons’ backfield has been a focal point leading up to the big game, but the Patriots will deploy an extremely talented group of running backs themselves, each with very contrasting styles. Seemingly breezing by each of their opponents this postseason, I think Brady and his arsenal of weapons get the job done in Houston en route to his fifth ring.”
– Robert Kohnfelder (Fake Teams) “The Patriots are the most well balanced team in the NFL this season. Their ability to play well on all three phases gives them a slight edge over the Falcons in my mind.”
– Anthony Staggs (Pyromaniac) “Two weeks to prepare for the league’s best offense will put the Patriots in a position to win this one. Although I think it’ll be rather close, I’m taking the Pats minus the points to win their 5th title and cement the Brady/Belichick legacy.”
– Andy Holloway (The Fantasy Footballers) “The Falcons are good enough to win, but the Patriots have the better defense and the best big-game quarterback in NFL history (apologies to Joe Montana). A lot of the Patriots have been through all this at least once and know the rhythms of the Super Bowl lead-up, which can’t be entirely insignificant.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (The Football Girl) “Every time the Patriots have won the Super Bowl they’ve pulled it out with last-second heroics and have won by four or less. The Patriots are favored by three in this one, which makes total sense. It lines up for a shoot-out, with an over/under at 59, but I just don’t see it that way. I see something of a repeat of the 2002 Super Bowl when the Patriots defeated, and ended, the “Greatest Show on Turf” era of the St. Louis Rams. I’m thinking it will be a little higher scoring than 20-17, with the kicking game taking center stage, 26-23 New England.
Doesn’t everyone know by now that the Giants are the only team that knows how to beat Brady/Belichick in the big one? “ – Kevin Wheeler (NFL Mock) “Tom Brady and Bill Belichick’s experience will prove to be too much for the inexperienced Falcons. The Patriots defense has also been severely underrated for much of the season.”
– Mike Tagliere (Pro Football Focus) “New England finds a way to win Super Bowls; Atlanta’s offense is red hot, but the concern lies with their defense and it should be a close game but one the Patriots win in the end.”
– James Hatfield (Hatty Waiver Wire Guru) “Defense wins championships… Brady, and Belichick don’t hurt either.”
– Leonard Francis (Maximize Your Odds) “I love the Falcons energy but they haven’t been here before. (At least these Dirty Birds) Tom and Bill come out on top to claim ring #5.”
– Terrance Bridgett (Fake Pigskin) “Hopefully we will be treated to an entertaining Super Bowl after a dismal set of playoff games. I am going with the experience and stronger defense of the Patriots to lead them to victory. The Falcons have been blitzing more in the playoffs to create more pressure and will have to do so again on Sunday. That will play into Tom Brady’s wheelhouse as he’s very good against the blitz. Look for running backs Dion Lewis and James White to have big roles in the passing game as well as tight end Martellus Bennett. Once they build a solid lead New England will pound the ball with LeGarrette Blount on their way to another Super Bowl victory.”
– Walton Spurlin (FantasySharks) “The Falcons are a great team, but they do not matchup well with the Patriots. Brady cracked Dan Quinn’s defense in Seattle, and Edelman, Lewis, and White will have massive games against their zone defense. Atlanta gave up 267 yards passing per game and 31 touchdowns. Also, the Patriots have the best scoring defense in the league, and they will force Atlanta to kick field goals. The Patriots always play a close Super Bowl, but they with 2 weeks preparation will be able to slow Atlanta.”
– Dan Yanotchko (EDSFootball) “This line seems exactly right to me, and I expect this to be a good game. I get not to blindly take New England based solely on “mystique,” but it’s also tough going against Brady and Belichick with two weeks to prepare. I do expect a shootout, but this total seems a little inflated (as most Super Bowls are), so I’ll take the under here. The Falcons are legit, but give me the Pats 31-27.”
– Dalton Del Don (Yahoo! Sports) “Both teams come into the Super Bowl riding long winning streaks, winning their divisional and championship games in convincing fashion. As the 3-point line indicates, the game is expected to be close between two very evenly matched teams. When it is this close, I have to go with the team with the Hall of Fame quarterback and coach.”
– Matthew Hill (DataForce Fantasy Football) “I respect the hell out of the Falcons and don’t think they will played scared at all in this one. Still, my money will be on Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. Atlanta brings the league’s top scoring offense while New England offers up the NFL’s top scoring defense and while the Falcons may have the slight edge there the gap will likely not be as close on the other side of the matchup where the Patriots’ offense should find success against the Falcons’ defense. Tom Brady takes his place in history with a fifth Super Bowl ring! – NE 31, ATL 26”
– Dan Clasgens (Get Sports Info) “This is the highest over/under at 59 in the history of the Super Bowl and everyone is expecting a shootout. Look for New England to pound the ball on the ground to methodically and keep the high powered Atlanta offense off the field. Brady has the stats on his side with being 4-0 all-time against Atlanta. During these 4 games, Brady has thrown 9 touchdowns and only 1 interception. His average margin of victory over Atlanta has been 10 points per game. I want New England to win, just to see Commissioner Roger Goodell have to present the Lombardi trophy to Tom Brady, Bill Belichick, and Robert Kraft. I’m very torn with this pick as I was born in New England and live in Atlanta. There is a lot on the line for me as I have been perfect to this point with all of my NFL playoff predictions. I’m picking New England to win and cover the spread, but secretly hoping that Atlanta wins so that I can attend their super bowl parade in person.”
– Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire) “The Falcons have had an incredible run this season, but their magic runs out this weekend. While I still think they will be able to score, the experience of the Patriots’ leaders will ultimately prevail.”
– Adam Sutton (DraftStars) “The Falcons are an explosive offense but their poor play against the run could prove to be their Achilles heel against the Patriots. 4.5+ yards per carry is just too much against a team with a bowling ball like LaGarette Blount who are likely game planning to run as much as possible to keep Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and the Falcons explosive backfield off of the field.”
– Raju Byfield (Win My Fantasy League) – Greg Smith (TwoQBs)
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“I’m going with the high powered offense of the Falcons in this one. I know the Falcons defense is not rated super high, but they have been improved the last two months of the season holding seven of the last nine opponents to 21 points or less. This includes the Packers in the NFC Championship.”
– Joe Bond (Fantasy Six Pack) “I’m going with the stat that New England hasn’t seen an elite quarterback all season. I believe that combined with Atlanta’s improved defense will be the difference even with Belichick on the other side. The Falcons have better skill players and I’m making myself believe that’ll help them win.”
– Adam Zdroik (Today’s Pigskin) “This has been well documented, but I don’t like the Patriots. How’s that for objectivity? That being said, I really do think the Falcons can win, I’m not just rooting against the Patriots. Atlanta’s offense has the weapons to counter New England’s defense, especially in the running game. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman are arguably the best running back duo in the NFL, and they’re both tremendous pass-catchers. Freeman, Coleman and Julio Jones can help Atlanta stay on the field and keep Tom Brady off the field. That will be the key. Atlanta’s defense isn’t good enough to carry this game like the Broncos did in last year’s Super Bowl. If the Falcons can win the time of possession and the turnover battle, then they’ll be sitting pretty.”
– Zach Greubel (Gridiron Experts) “The Falcons offense has been absolutely unstoppable and despite the Patriots being the top scoring defense in the league, it’s going to be a tall task to keep Matty Ice and company out of the end zone. Turnovers will likely tip the scales in this one, but my money is on Atlanta finally capturing that elusive Lombardi Trophy.”
– Wayne Bretsky (BretskyBall) “Both of these offenses are capable of scoring points in bunches, the key to the game is going to be which defense slows the other offense down enough to win the game. New England has been the better defense this year, but the Falcons D is coming together at the right time and they shutout Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers for a half in the NFC Championship Game. Falcons QB Matt Ryan and Patriots QB Tom Brady are two of the best quarterbacks in the league at not making mistakes and both offenses are extremely balanced. I think this game is basically a toss up, so I will go with the Falcons, because they are the team receiving points in what should be a very evenly matched game.”
– Derek Lofland (Fantasy Football Maniax) “The highest scoring team in the NFL getting points? I’ll gladly take that! In fact, the Falcons win the game outright. Even if Belichick “tries” to take out Julio Jones, Matt Ryan and the Falcons just have too many weapons for the over-blown Patriots defense. Mohamed Sanu is going to play an integral role and is good enough to beat Malcolm Butler in single coverage. If not, there is still Taylor Gabriel, Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman. Sorry football fans, but the multi-dimensional Atlanta offense isn’t going to allow us the awkward moment of Roger Goodell handing Tom Brady the trophy.”
– Rich Piazza (Fantasy Shed) “The Falcons have by far the most explosive offense that the Patriots have faced all season which will expose some holes in the Patriots defense. While I expect Tom Brady and the Patriots offense to keep up with the Falcons, look for the Falcons to pull out the narrow victory.”
– Brad Richter (Going For 2) “If there is one thing the Atlanta Falcons proved throughout the season and their two playoff games, it is that they deserve to be there. They strike quickly and are unrelenting in forcing their way downfield with creative drives. The Patriots will no doubt try to come up with something to try and keep Atlanta bogged down deep in their own territory. As we know, the Falcons passing playbook really comes to life when they approach mid-field. As for New England on offense, their task is to set the pace into a grind. A shootout favors the Falcons here and although Julio Jones will get plenty of coverage, Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman are extra pass catchers the Patriots are forced to respect. Brady has to be at his best because his weapons are not near as diverse. Nonetheless, beating these Patriots in a Super Bowl is no small task, but the Falcons are about the only team coming out of the NFC with a real ability to do it.”
– Richard Savill (Fantasy Six Pack) “Atlanta could very well have the most powerful offense in NFL history. To give them 3 points is an obvious miscalculation by the odds makers.”
– Staff Rankings (Fantasy Knuckleheads) “Sorry New England fans, you’ve had multiple chances to celebrate.”
– The FFGhost (Dynasty League Football) “If the Patriots can recreate the Eagles’ ball-dominating offense in their win earlier this season, then this could end up being some of a rout. Riding the running game requires patience, however, and patience is difficult when the opposing team jumps out to a lead. While the Patriots do match up well with the Falcons — they can stop the run and tackle well after the catch — the Falcons have had success against every defense they have faced, and Atlanta’s defense is coming together at the right time. I like the Falcons in a lower-scoring game than expected.”
– Raymond Summerlin (Rotoworld) – Sean Koerner (STATS)
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