You might be questioning whether you’re at FantasyPros or a Doug Baldwin fan site since this is the second time this month Baldwin’s received love. Earlier in the month, Lucius Veris wrote about Baldwin as a solid WR1. I’m going to dig in a little deeper on a guy who I deem to be a must-have wide receiver.
The Seahawks are no longer a bottom dweller in pass attempts. In Russell Wilson’s first three years in the NFL, the Seahawks ranked 32nd, 31st, and 32nd in pass attempts. In 2015, they slightly moved up to 28th, but last year, they ranked tied for 18th with 567 pass attempts, per Pro-Football-Reference. It marked the first time Wilson’s eclipsed 500 passes in a season (546). Even with the increased work — Wilson’s pass attempts have increased every season — he continues to drive the ball downfield ranking tied for sixth in Yds/Att (7.7) and eighth in Yds/Pass Cmp (12.0) last season. Wilson is a top-flight signal caller, and while pass catchers can have big seasons with bad quarterbacks, it’s obviously preferable to be tied to a good trigger man.
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The Seahawks added Eddie Lacy in the offseason. That might signal a hope to get back to their ground-and-pound ways, but I’m skeptical of that actually happening. Seattle’s offensive line ranked just 26th in Adj.-Line Yards (3.50) for rushing, according to Football Outsiders (FO), last year while checking in 27th in Power Rank, and 30th in Stuffed Rank. Center Justin Britt earned the highest Pro Football Focus (PFF) player grade along the offensive line, so it’s a bit of a head-scratcher that the team’s highest selected offensive lineman in the NFL Draft this year was LSU center Ethan Pocic, who they selected 58th overall. The club could move Pocic to another position along the line, but changing positions and getting acclimated to the step up in competition moving up from college to the NFL seems like a tall order. The Seahawks also spent a sixth-round pick on Mississippi State tackle Justin Senior and signed Luke Joekel, but banking on a sixth-round pick to greatly improve a line seems foolish, and Joekel has failed to live up to the expectations that accompanied being selected second overall in the 2013 NFL Draft. Joekel, however, did earn a “high quality” grade in run blocking at PFF last season, though, so he should help some. Regardless, as a whole, the offensive line looks to be below average from a run blocking perspective, so leaning on the running game heavily as they did in the Beast Mode years seems like a pipe dream.
Moving back to the passing attack and Baldwin in particular, he’s already proven he’s a WR1 posting back-to-back top-10 rankings at the position in standard and PPR formats, as NFL.com’s Alex Gelhar pointed out when calling him the most underappreciated top-tier fantasy wide receiver. Gelhar pointed out Baldwin’s steady target share the last three years of 22%, 21%, and 22%, respectively, and the fact he’s proven to be more than a slot monster by doing damage from the outside last year, too. Expanding on where Baldwin’s lined up, Matt Harmon of NFL.com broke down Baldwin’s separation skills both from the slot and out wide using NFL’s Next Gen Stats. The eye-catching quote in Harmon’s write up for Baldwin (which is a great read) is, “For my money, he’s the best slot receiver in the NFL today, mixing technical precision with a knack for big plays.” PFF also graded him out as “high quality” and the seventh best wide receiver.
Baldwin’s eclipsed 1,000 yards receiving in consecutive years, and he set a new single-season high of 1,128 yards last year. His touchdown total dipped from 14 in 2015 to seven last year, but 21 touchdown snags over the last two years is an elite total. He also helped compensate — at least in PPR leagues — for the regression in touchdowns by topping his 2015 career-high of 78 receptions with 94 last year on a new high of 125 targets. Not even Jimmy Graham playing in all 16 games could prevent Baldwin from leading the Seahawks in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdown receptions. The advanced stats were very impressive for Baldwin, too. FO ranked him eighth among qualified receivers in DYAR (272) and eighth in DVOA (14.4%). He also posted 95 more Effective Yards than actual receiving yards, according to FO. No matter how you slice it, Baldwin’s an elite receiver in real life, and that’s translated to fantasy in the last two years.
I’m optimistic about 2014 second-round pick Paul Richardson adding a dimension to the passing game, but I’m not worried about Baldwin ceding much — if any — production to him. Baldwin’s ADP checks in as WR13 and 29 overall, and his ECR places him at WR11 and in Tier 3. I have him clearly in Tier 2 and WR8. He should be a steady producer, but he’ll also have some big games that will appeal to gamers in best-ball formats.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.