The West Coast trip ends and the Florida swing begins on Tour this week, as the players head to PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens. It is by no means an easy course. The 7,041 yard par-70 is usually very windy, the greens are small, and the course has far more water hazards than any of the other courses played so far this season. By many, it is believed to be the hardest course for a non-major tournament that is on the annual PGA Schedule, and a lot of that has to do with a late-round three hole gauntlet called “The Bear Trap.” Holes 15, 16, and 17 of PGA National make up this intimidating trio, one on which 23 percent of all tour players have scored 10 over-par or more on, in total for the three holes.
So what does a player have to do well to collect the winning paycheck on Sunday? What makes the course so difficult is that there really isn’t one good answer, except, well, everything. Being long helps, but not only being long. Being lights out on the greens helps, but the ball striking needs to be good enough to have makeable putts. A winner at this event is doing everything well at the right time. Making pars is the key to victory, because although Rickie Fowler may have made it look easy last year — en route to a 12-under, four-stroke victory — double-digit under-par winning scores are seldom, especially considering the weather is rarely in a golfer’s favor.
One final factor to consider when deciding on who to pursue in DFS this week; experience. Since PGA National began hosting the Honda Classic in 2007, all but three of the champions had already won at least one time on tour. If deciding between a seasoned vet and a young upstart, this is the course where going with the former should pay off. With that being said, let’s take a look at which players have a good chance of delivering this week in Florida.
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Top-Tier Recommendation
Justin Thomas ($11,300)
Thomas is the third most expensive player this week on DraftKings but he could be well worth it. Justin looked the best he has all year en-route to a T-9 finish last week at Riviera, and also seems to like PGA National. In 2016, he finished tied for third and was the only player in the field with all four rounds in the 60s. Although we haven’t quite seen vintage JT yet this season, he’s a very streaky player and when he starts to do a lot of things right, which he did in Riviera, he usually continues it for at least a few weeks. Most of the players at this price range are relatively safe plays, but not many players have the ability to, for example, shoot 59 and win by seven (Sony Open), so his ceiling is arguably the highest. I’m using Justin Thomas without hesitation in Fantasy Golf leagues of my own this week, and if you’re spending up in DFS this week, it’s on him, because the others around his price come with some question marks.
Mid-Price Plays
Gary Woodland ($9,700)
It’s hard to ignore a player who is coming off a win within the last two weeks. It’s even harder to ignore a player who also finished T-2 last year on the course of the upcoming tournament. Gary Woodland fits both of these categories. Woodland’s Sunday 64 two weeks ago in Phoenix propelled him to his third win on tour, and he’ll be looking for more this week in Palm Beach Gardens. Last year almost felt like a victory for Woodland. With Rickie Fowler four shots ahead, the rest of the field was in effect playing for second place, and along with Morgan Hoffmann, Woodland beat out six other players who were within one shot of second. His putter has looked as good as ever this year, so Woodland could be very dangerous this week in DFS as a lower-owned option due to the other names around his price.
Tyrrell Hatton ($9,500)
Tyrell Hatton is a lesser-known name in the states, considering he plays a lot of his events overseas, but man can he play. His name is worth remembering because when everything is clicking, he can run off long strings of consistent play. Hatton finished third in his last start at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic in late January, and a week before that, finished 15th in Abu Dhabi. However, his successes aren’t just limited to international events. Last year at the Honda Classic, he finished T-4, in what was his debut on the course. This year, it’ll be interesting to find out how much the extra year of course experience will help. I’m willing to dip from an expensive option down into the $9,000s to find out.
Russell Knox ($9,000)
Knox is someone I couldn’t leave out of the article this week, as there are so many arrows pointing in his direction. First and foremost, Knox looked very solid in his last start two weeks ago in Pebble Beach, where he posted a T-15 finish, one of three for him this season. Perhaps even more importantly, Knox has been agonizingly close to winning at PGA National multiple times. In 2014, he lost in a four-man playoff, only to finish a shot back from winner Padraig Harrington the very next year. It feels like he’s due for things to fall his way at some point in this event, and the fact that he both attended college and resides in Florida almost makes it feel like Knox is too good to be true this week. He has all the things you would look for in a top-tier play but at a solid bargain.
Sleeper for Cheaper
Sung Kang ($7,400)
This one’s a little off the radar, but that’s what we’re looking for in a sleeper. Kang has been back-and-forth over the years in terms of his tour card but has recently found some consistency. 2016 and 2017 were good years for Kang, who had a share of the 36-hole lead in 2016 at Pebble Beach and had the 54-hole lead all to himself at the 2017 Shell Houston Open. He finished T-17 and second in those two tournaments, respectively. He also finished T-3 at the CIMB Classic in October of 2017. The two most important things to note are that Kang finished T-16 last week in Riviera, and has success on PGA National, where he finished T-10 two years ago. Nothing in particular sticks out about Kang’s game, but he’s the type of player that will produce if he feels comfortable with where he is playing and how he is playing. It seems like he can check both of those boxes right now, which is more than enough to justify a selection at this price.
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Nick Swantek is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Nick, check out his archive and follow him @nick_swantek.