We did it folks, we made it through another offseason.
This is the Depth Chart review, where every week I’ll be going over important depth chart changes around the league and their fantasy implications. This encompasses things like role changes, injuries, player transactions, and batting order changes.
Let’s get into some of the big roster moves heading into Opening Day.
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Souza Injury, Tomas Demotion Leads to RF Platoon in Arizona
Diamondbacks right fielder Steven Souza suffered a pectoral strain last Wednesday and is going to be out until mid-May. The Diamondbacks also sent Cuban slugger Yasmany Tomas, who can be loosely defined as an outfielder, to Triple-A Reno on Saturday. These two moves mean that right field will belong primarily to veteran speedster Jarrod Dyson, who will handle playing time against right-handed pitchers. Utility man Chris Owings is in line for playing time against southpaws.
Dyson has always done one thing well for fantasy owners, and that’s steal bases. As a part-time player, he’s racked up 184 steals over the past six seasons, for an average of about 31 per season. He isn’t a contributor in batting average or power, and since he’s going to hit eighth he won’t provide many runs scored. Regardless, Dyson is a great short-term pickup for owners in need of steals. With regular playing time Dyson could reach double-digit steals in six weeks.
Owings is a bit more rounded as a player. He flashed an intriguing power/speed combination last season before going down with a fractured finger. In 386 plate appearances, he hit .268 with 12 home runs and 12 stolen bases. While those numbers are great in fantasy, his atrocious plate discipline (career 4.7% walk rate and .295 OBP) makes him a below average real-life hitter with a career 77 wRC+ and will limit his playing time. Owings also had massive home/road splits last year, with an .887 OPS and eight of his 12 homers at home, and just a .590 OPS on the road. The humidor might have a bigger effect on someone like Owings since his low walk rate means he mostly relies on batted balls to reach base. Still, his speed and triple eligibility at 2B/SS/OF make him a nice bench player in NL-only or deep mixed leagues.
Bird Grounded, Causing Platoon at 1B for Yankees
Another year, another Greg Bird injury. This time ankle surgery will cost him six-to-eight weeks to start the season. This leaves a probable platoon at first base for the Yankees between veteran Neil Walker and former Baseball America top-100 prospect Tyler Austin. The switch-hitting Walker will get the bulk of the playing time against righties, and Austin will play against lefties. Austin has solid power (.269 ISO at Triple-A last year) but strikes out too much (39% career K rate in the majors) to hold down an everyday job. Walker is the more interesting player from a fantasy perspective since he’ll play more and he’s second base eligible.
Walker did pretty much all his damage against right-handed pitching last season, with an .854 OPS and all 14 of his home runs against righties. Walker had just a .610 OPS against lefties last season. He also posted a career-high 12.3% walk rate in 2017, giving him a healthy .362 on-base percentage. Playing in Yankee Stadium should help boost Walker’s powers numbers. Yankee stadium had a 1.279 home run factor in 2017, second highest in the majors. Walker is a solid power source as a middle infielder or second baseman. He’s a good fill-in for Daniel Murphy owners since Murphy will start the season on the disabled list.
Phillies Lock Up Kingery
The Phillies signed second base prospect Scott Kingery to a six-year, 24 million dollar contract on Sunday, the largest sum for a minor league prospect that’s never appeared in the majors. Kingery is one of the Phillies most regarded prospects and should make an immediate impact on the major league roster. Between Double-A and Triple-A last season he had an .889 OPS, 26 home runs, and 29 steals in 603 plate appearances. This contract puts any service time issues to bed as Kingery will be on the Phillies Opening Day roster. The Phillies want to get him in their lineup and have been trying him at third base and in the outfield.
This move will affect almost all the Phillies position players. Other than Carlos Santana and Rhys Hoskins, Kingery could steal playing time from anyone. He should get semi-regular playing time as a utility player between the infield and outfield, and if someone struggles early Kingery could take their role. Maikel Franco has failed to deliver on his potential for the past two seasons, outfielders Aaron Altherr and Nick Williams both have poor strikeout rates which can lead to cold stretches, and there are questions as to whether shortstop prospect J.P. Crawford can handle major league pitching. Kingery could play at second, third, and right field. He’s a good bet to gain multi-position eligibility.
Despite the gaudy minor league numbers, there’s reason to be skeptical of Kingery. He posted 18 of his 26 home runs and a .295 ISO in Double-A Reading in 317 plate appearances. The park in Reading is notoriously hitter-friendly. It had a home run factor of 1.526 in 2016 (The most recent numbers available). That was over a full run higher than any major league park last season. In 286 plate appearances at Triple-A Lehigh Valley Kingery had eight homers and a .155 ISO. There are a lot of solid tools to Kingery’s game, but his power numbers look inflated last season. He’s worth a speculative add in most leagues, but don’t expect his 20-20 upside to surface right away.
Bullpen Clarity for Diamondbacks, Angels
We finally got some answers regarding the closer situations for the Diamondbacks and Angels. The Diamondbacks officially named Brad Boxberger their closer. Boxberger beat out former top prospect Archie Bradley and former Japan Pacific League closer Yoshihisa Hirano for the role. For the Angels, Blake Parker is considered the favorite for closing duties. He edged out Cam Bedrosian and former Orioles and Braves closer Jim Johnson. There may be some disappointment that the younger guys like Bradley and Bedrosian didn’t win the role, but Boxberger and Parker are good pitchers in their own right. They are both worth owning in all leagues where saves are a valuable commodity.
Boxberger locked down 41 saves for the Rays in 2015, but injuries limited him to just 53.2 innings between 2016-17 and cost him his closer job in Tampa. If we can forgive Boxberger’s injury-plagued 2016, where he had a 4.81 ERA, 5.71 xFIP, and 7.03 BB/9 (no, that’s not a typo), then 2017 was a nice bounce back for him. In 29.1 innings Boxberger had a 3.38 ERA, 3.36 xFIP, and a juicy 12.27 K/9. He also had an 11.7% swinging strike rate, including a 15.14% whiff rate on his fastball. Walks were still an issue for Boxberger, with a 3.38 BB/9 last season, though that is an improvement over his career 4.40 BB/9. If Boxberger holds on to the job all season, a repeat of his 2015 All-Star performance is certainly possible, and he could even do it with a better strikeout rate.
Parker, a 32-year-old journeyman reliever, broke out big time in 2017. He had a 2.54 ERA, 2.73 xFIP, and 11.5 K/9 in 67.1 innings. He owes his newfound success to his splitter. The splitter was the money pitch for Parker last season. Batters hit just .156 against the pitch and whiffed a staggering 25.29% of the time. Some regression should be expected for Parker. He had a .229 BABIP against and a 78.1% strand rate last season. Regardless, the breakout looks perfectly legitimate. Like Boxberger, Parker will be a good closer should he hang onto the job all season. Parker is probably the better pitcher from a talent and stuff perspective, but if choosing between the two on waivers or through FAAB I’d prioritize Boxberger. Mostly because I trust Torey Lovullo to stick with Boxberger more than I trust Mike Scioscia to stick with Parker. Both deserve to be picked up in any leagues where they are currently unowned.
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Elliott Baas is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Elliott, check out his archive and follow him @elliottbaasbb.
