Who had the Most Accurate NFL Mock Draft in 2018?

May 1, 2018

Some analysts actually pegged Michel to New England in the 1st round

You’ve seen our NFL Rankings Accuracy Contest where over 100 experts from around the industry battle each week to prove their fantasy football advice is above the rest of the field. Well this winter, we decided to grade all of the NFL mock drafts with the same goal in mind. This is something we plan to do annually so the results will build on one another and give a clearer picture over time of which analysts truly have the best tabs on the NFL Draft. Our methodology for measuring each mock’s accuracy took four pieces of information into account:

  1. How close the analyst was in predicting where each player would be selected overall
  2. How close the analyst was in predicting where each player would be selected compared to others at their position
  3. Whether or not the analyst predicted the correct position each NFL team would select
  4. Whether or not the analyst predicted the correct team each prospect would be drafted by

Similar to the NFL rankings accuracy contest, you will find some very familiar names near the top of the leaderboard. Among them, Scott Smith (RotoViz) took home the number one spot for having the most accurate mock draft in 2018. He remarkably finished second in all four categories measured thanks to a number of surprising predictions.

Scott started it off by nailing each of the first three picks of the Draft. He also expected the Bucs to take Derwin James then, somehow, had five of the other six picks from the top 10 within one spot of where they actually landed. That may not seem like much, but compared to the rest of the field, that is a remarkable accomplishment. Moving outside the top 10, Scott wisely predicted Jaire Alexander would land with the Packers and that Arizona would find a way to get Josh Rosen. He followed those picks up by pegging Leighton Vander Esch to the Cowboys, and D.J. Moore to the Panthers among several other great calls. In total, Smith correctly listed 28 of the 32 players who were selected in the first round, tabbed the correct position for 15 teams, named the correct team for a whopping 10 players, and just missed on 11 others. What a spectacular feat. Well done, Scott, and congratulations! You can view Scott’s full mock draft here.

2018 Mock Draft Accuracy Standings

Top 10 Mocks – Overall Leaderboard*
 Rank  Expert
 1.  Scott Smith – RotoViz
 2.  Walter Cherepinsky – Walter Football
 3.  Evan Silva – Rotoworld
 4.  Ken Zalis – Pressbox
 5.  Nick Mariano – RotoBaller
 6.  Kevin Hanson – EDSFootball
 7.  Jody Smith – FantasyPros
 8.  Mike Mayock – NFL.com
 9.  Rob Rang – NFL Draft Scout
10  Brendan Donahue – EDSFootball

View entire Accuracy Leaderboard (137 mocks graded)

Right after Scott Smith, we had a duo of heavy hitters in Walter Cherpinsky (Walter Football) and Evan Silva (Rotoworld) finishing #2 and #3, respectively. Walter finished ahead of everyone in terms of accurately predicting draft slots while Silva made up his ground by hanging neck and neck with Jody Smith (FantasyPros), Ryan McCrystal (Draft Ace) and Scott Smith by slotting the correct positions selected for 15 NFL teams. Ryan McCrystal from Draft Ace (11th overall) was also the only analyst to correctly predict the landing spot for 11 draft prospects. Rob Rang (NFL Draft Scout) deserves special mention too, as he led the pack of over 130 mock drafts in terms of ranking players by position.

Four of the other most highly regarded draft analysts in the industry all landed well within the top quadrant of most accurate mock drafts. Mike Mayock (NFL.com) finished #8, Todd McShay (ESPN) ended #12 while Mel Kiper Jr (ESPN) and Daniel Jeremiah (NFL.com) tied at 157 points to finish #23 and #24. Congratulations to each of them and all of the most accurate analysts.

We’ll be back next year with more mock draft accuracy action. Until then, you can review the final results here. Congratulations again to Scott Smith and good luck to everyone next season.


Subscribe: iTunes | Google Play | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | TuneIn | RSS

What's your take? Leave a comment

1Dalvin Cook (MIN)RB
2Leonard Fournette (JAC)RB
3Saquon Barkley (NYG)RB
4Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)RB
5Chris Carson (SEA)RB
6Derrick Henry (TEN)RB
7David Johnson (ARI)RB
8Le'Veon Bell (NYJ)RB
9Julio Jones (ATL)WR
10Phillip Lindsay (DEN)RB
 View all Flex Rankings 
11Aaron Jones (GB)RB
12Cooper Kupp (LAR)WR
13DeAndre Hopkins (HOU)WR
14Mark Ingram (BAL)RB
15Tyreek Hill (KC)WR
16Josh Jacobs (OAK)RB
17Michael Thomas (NO)WR
18Alvin Kamara (NO)RB
19Sony Michel (NE)RB
20Marlon Mack (IND)RB
21T.Y. Hilton (IND)WR
22Keenan Allen (LAC)WR
23Tyler Lockett (SEA)WR
24Devonta Freeman (ATL)RB
25Kerryon Johnson (DET)RB
26Adam Thielen (MIN)WR
27Julian Edelman (NE)WR
28Joe Mixon (CIN)RB
29Tevin Coleman (SF)RB
30Robert Woods (LAR)WR
1Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL)LF,CF
2Nolan Arenado (COL)3B
3Mookie Betts (BOS)CF,RF
4J.D. Martinez (BOS)LF,RF
5Trevor Story (COL)SS
6Justin Verlander (HOU)SP
7Cody Bellinger (LAD)1B,CF
8Trea Turner (WSH)SS
9Alex Bregman (HOU)3B,SS
10Jacob deGrom (NYM)SP
 View All Rankings 
11Max Scherzer (WSH)SP
12Francisco Lindor (CLE)SS
13Gerrit Cole (HOU)SP
14Freddie Freeman (ATL)1B
15Javier Baez (CHC)2B,3B
16Charlie Blackmon (COL)CF
17Aaron Judge (NYY)RF,DH
18Juan Soto (WSH)LF
19Anthony Rendon (WSH)3B
20Bryce Harper (PHI)CF,RF
21Jose Altuve (HOU)2B
22Xander Bogaerts (BOS)SS
23Starling Marte (PIT)CF
24Walker Buehler (LAD)SP
25Manny Machado (SD)3B,SS
26Anthony Rizzo (CHC)1B
27Kris Bryant (CHC)3B,RF
28Whit Merrifield (KC)1B,2B
29George Springer (HOU)CF,RF
30Paul Goldschmidt (STL)1B
1Anthony Davis (LAL)PF,C
2James Harden (HOU)PG,SG
3Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)SF,PF
4Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN)C
5Kevin Durant (BKN)SF,PF
6LeBron James (LAL)SF,PF
7Stephen Curry (GSW)PG,SG
8Nikola Jokic (DEN)PF,C
9Damian Lillard (POR)PG
10Victor Oladipo (IND)PG,SG
 View All Rankings 
11Russell Westbrook (HOU)PG
12Paul George (LAC)SF,PF
13Joel Embiid (PHI)PF,C
14Kawhi Leonard (LAC)SG,SF
15Chris Paul (OKC)PG
16Kyrie Irving (BKN)PG,SG
17Kemba Walker (BOS)PG
18Jimmy Butler (MIA)SG,SF
19Ben Simmons (PHI)PG,SF
20Jrue Holiday (NOR)PG,SG
21Rudy Gobert (UTH)C
22Donovan Mitchell (UTH)PG,SG
23John Wall (WAS)PG
24Kyle Lowry (TOR)PG
25Andre Drummond (DET)PF,C
26Bradley Beal (WAS)SG
27Khris Middleton (MIL)SG,SF
28Kevin Love (CLE)PF,C
29Draymond Green (GSW)PF,C
30LaMarcus Aldridge (SAS)PF,C
Follow the Pros!

Follow us on Twitter @FantasyPros for exclusive advice and contests