In real baseball, Major League teams typically wait until the final days, hours, and minutes before the trade deadline to frantically attempt to swing deals (unless you’re the Nationals, that is). But here in the fantasy world, there’s no need to be so cautious. Unless you play in a keeper league, you’re always in win-now mode. So if you see a deal at any point in the season that will strengthen your team, you’ve got to go for it.
Here are some buy low and sell high candidates to inspire for your next big move.
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Players to Buy
Gary Sanchez (C – NYY)
I’ve been tempted to put Sanchez on my buy list for quite awhile, but he was hitting for enough power that it was hard to qualify him as a true “buy low.” Well, we’ve finally gotten to the point where he belongs on this list. Sanchez has really hit the skids in the last month, with just seven hits and one homer in 67 at-bats since May 22. His 13 home runs no longer look so great now that they’re paired with a sub-.200 batting average — even at the always-weak catcher position.
The good news is that better days are ahead for Mr. Sanchez. His .203 BABIP is second-lowest in all of baseball, and almost 80 points lower than any other season in his Major or Minor league career. Neither Fangraphs nor Statcast shows a major drop in his hard contact rate since last season, and while he has slightly increased his launch angle and traded some line drives for fly balls, nothing has drastically changed in his profile.
Now consider that Sanchez has been a top-three catcher in standard 5×5 leagues this season even with a batting average below the Mendoza line, and you begin to realize how big a difference maker he could be in the second half. If you can acquire his services for anything less than top-40 overall player value, you are doing very well for yourself.
Daniel Murphy (2B – WAS)
Last week in this space, I discussed how it is often worth trying to acquire injured players at a discount. The same applies to players who have missed a lot of time to injury and then struggled in a short sample size upon their return.
Murphy is a perfect example. His balky knee ended up costing him much more time than was expected on draft day, and he has done next to nothing in a handful of games since returning. If you tried to acquire him on the day he returned from the DL, his owner would likely have been indignant. But if you try now, you may find that the Murphy owner is at his/her wit’s end.
Here is where Murphy has ranked among second basemen in standard 5×5 leagues over the last five seasons, according to Baseball Monster (starting with last year): 5th, 5th, 11th, 9th, 3rd. In other words, if he can manage to stay on the field (which is admittedly not a guarantee), Murphy will likely be an above-average starter at the keystone spot in 12-team leagues. He’d probably cost much less than that to acquire in a lot of leagues right now.
Ian Kinsler (2B – LAA)
If you need a 2B upgrade and the Murphy owner is standing pat, give Kinsler a look. His .212 BABIP is the fifth-lowest in the league, and even at 35 years of age, he’s still showing the blend of power (nine home runs) and speed (seven stolen bases) that has made him a fantasy mainstay for the last decade. In fact, the only noteworthy change to his profile as a hitter is a positive one: He is striking out much less this year, to the point where his walk rate is almost as high as his strikeout rate.
Kinsler also happens to be leading off for a potent Angels offense, meaning run-scoring opportunities will continue to be plentiful, particularly as his batting average rises. And even though he’s been heating up over the last month, he’s barely owned in half of Yahoo leagues. So the price of buying low in your league might be a simple waiver claim.
Players to Sell
Jean Segura (SS – SEA)
While Segura is a rock solid player at a scarce position, so far this year he’s performing like a truly elite one. According to Baseball Monster, he’s accumulated the sixth-most fantasy value in all of baseball in standard 5×5 leagues. But a closer look reveals that Segura is essentially the same player he was last year, when he barely finished among the top-150 players in 5×5 leagues.
As a speedy player who hits a lot of ground balls, Segura has always been a high BABIP guy. But this year his BABIP is .376, which is sixth-highest in the league and more than 50 points above his career mark. And it’s happening even though his hard/soft contact and ground ball/fly ball ratios are basically unchanged, which is further confirmation he will regress towards the mean.
The other major factor inflating Segura’s fantasy value is his unsustainable run production numbers. Segura has hit either first or second in a Mariners lineup that sits 14th in the league in runs scored per game, the exact same situation he found himself in last year when the Mariners were 15th in the league in scoring. The difference is that last year Segura had 80 runs and 45 RBIs in 125 games, whereas this year he already has 52 runs and 44 RBIs in just 69 games. Segura has only scored more than 80 Runs once in his career, and he’s never had more than 64 RBIs. Even if he blows past those numbers, his scoring pace is sure to slow over the course of the season, particularly as his .340 batting average drops a bit.
Segura is who we thought he was. But if someone in your league thinks he’s suddenly become something more, it’s probably time to cash out.
David Peralta (OF – ARI)
Peralta has never hit 20 home runs in a season, but this year he is on pace to top 30. Combined with a solid .277 batting average, that’s good enough to place him within the top-75 overall players in standard 5×5 leagues. But if anyone in your league is willing to buy Peralta at the going rate of a .280-30 hitter, I’d happily take them up on the offer.
While a .280 batting average is perfectly reasonable for Peralta (he hit .293 last year), the odds are heavily stacked against him coming close to 30 home runs. The reasoning is simple: He hits the ball on the ground too often to be a consistent power threat. Peralta has managed a massive spike in his hard contact rate this year, which is encouraging, but he’s also hitting the ball on the ground more than half the time, as he has done throughout his Major League career.
Last year, 17 players had a ground ball rate of 50 percent or higher (including Peralta), and none of them hit more than 26 home runs (Josh Bell). Most of them hit fewer than 20. And given Peralta’s own history, it’s tough to expect him to perform at greater than a 20-HR pace from this point forward. Factor in his lack of base stealing prowess and Arizona’s middle-of-the-pack offensive production and Peralta looks like a player who won’t truly stand out in any offensive category.
Matt Kemp (OF – LAD)
Kemp currently leads all of baseball with a .396 BABIP, which is almost certainly unsustainable even if he continues to make more hard contact than he ever has over his fairly illustrious career. Kemp used to be a high-BABIP guy, but that changed over the last few seasons, with declining foot speed due to age and wear and tear as the most likely explanation. Kemp has hit for an average between .265 and .287 each year since 2013, and that’s about the range that we should expect from him for the rest of the season.
The rest of Kemp’s numbers (power, run production) appear to be fairly sustainable, so he should remain a solid enough option in standard 12-team leagues as long as he’s hitting in the middle of the Dodgers’ lineup. But if Kemp’s hot start is making someone in your league reminiscent of his glory days (circa 2007-2012), now could be the perfect time to deal him away.
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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.
