A quick glance at Matt Chapman’s 2018 numbers aren’t likely to turn many heads. Over 439 plate appearances he’s produced a .279/.367/.509 batting line with 72 runs, 16 home runs, and 43 RBIs. Those are solid marks to be sure, but outside of perhaps the high run total, nothing in particular stands out.
So it might surprise you that Chapman has posted the second-highest wOBA since the All-Star break (.485), behind only the red-hot Ronald Acuna. Over that span he’s batting a ridiculous .368/.440/.737 with six long balls. As you might expect, the BABIP gods have given him a boost (.426), but a stellar .397 xwOBA and 47.3% hard-hit rate show this hasn’t just been some lucky stretch.
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When we take a step back and look at Chapman’s season as a whole, there’s a lot to like. Overall, he’s posted a .375 wOBA and .230 ISO, and his power is backed up by a pristine 44.9% hard-hit rate and 40.1% fly-ball rate. He’s also improved his strikeout rate by a sizable margin. After putting up an elevated 28.2% strikeout rate in 2017 — a trait all too common among sluggers these days — he’s dropped that down to a much more palatable 22.8%. Between that and a solid 10.3% walk rate, he’s seen that noticeable bump in OBP, leading to all those runs scored. That trend can only get even better now that Chapman has graduated to the two-hole since the end of July.
With his excellent power numbers, better strikeout rate, and rise up the batting order, there’s no reason to think Chapman can’t finish 2018 on a very high note. Batting second won’t necessarily allow him to catch up in RBIs, but he should continue to be a fine contributor in runs and round-trippers, with the possibility to even maintain that improved batting average despite his modest track record on that front. Given his tantalizing start to the second half, perhaps by season’s end his fantasy line will prove to be much more eye-catching.
Let’s check in on some other guys around the league.
Mitch Moreland is batting just .186 since the beginning of July
After posting a whopping .410 wOBA and .310 ISO over the first two months, the 2018 season was looking awfully bright for Mitch Moreland at the start of June, particularly with the Red Sox abruptly cutting ties with veteran Hanley Ramirez. Moreland had sole possession of first base playing time, and even with some natural regression expected, he was putting up a promising 40.0% hard-hit rate and 39.0% fly-ball rate. Batting in the middle of one of the top offenses in baseball, what could possibly go wrong?
Of course, it hasn’t quite worked out that way, as Moreland is slashing just .186/.252/.304 since the start of July. His wOBA over that span sits at a miserable .241, to go with an equally lackluster .118 ISO. One can point to a .211 BABIP as a sign of bad luck, but he hasn’t done himself any favors with a 26.6% hard-hit rate and 52.6% ground-ball rate.
To make matters worse, Boston acquired Steve Pearce to platoon with Moreland, and given Pearce’s hot play since joining the team, it isn’t inconceivable that Moreland could lose more playing time if he fails to produce.
That said, given his career marks and the high-octane offense he plays for, Moreland still has his uses in deep formats as an RBI man, hitting between third and fifth on most nights. He’s also always shown reasonable pop (.189 career ISO), slugging over 20 dingers in each of the last three seasons. Still, regression has hit Moreland in a very big way, and he’s more of a fill-in guy than the high-upside play he appeared to be early in the year.
Yoan Moncada is striking out over 50% of the time in August
Speaking of slumps, Yoan Moncada is struggling in a big way, batting just .167/.273/.333 in the month of August, with a cringeworthy 50.9% strikeout rate. Ouch. It’s never surprising to see young players go through tough stretches at the plate, but that’s a truly brutal mark. After leading off against righties all season, he was dropped to the bottom half of the order last week, batting as low as eighth.
On the season, Moncada is now batting just .219 with a 35.2% strikeout rate, which would’ve led to an automatic benching in years past, but it’s not nearly as crippling these days with batting average down across the league. And unlike a guy like Moreland, Moncada brings that highly-coveted power-speed combo, displaying 15 round-trippers and 11 swiped bags. That pop is backed up by a 37.0% hard-hit rate and 41.1% fly-ball rate, and although Moncada hasn’t stolen a base since July 28, he’s been caught stealing three times this month. Obviously, we would rather see him successfully nab a base, but at least it’s a sign that he’s still running.
The high number of punchouts is truly unsettling, and in shallower leagues, it probably makes sense to bench Moncada, if you haven’t already. But in deep roto formats, you may not have a plethora of viable alternatives, so if you need the home runs or stolen bases, it might be worth slogging through this rough stretch. On the other hand, if you’re in a tight batting average race, it’s probably best to get Moncada out of your lineup until he starts to turn things around.
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Kenyatta Storin is a featured writer with FantasyPros. For more from Kenyatta, check out his archive and follow him @kenyattastorin.
