At long last, the first real NFL action of the 2018 season starts today! You’ve been preparing for months for this very moment and were able to snag most of the players you targeted in your drafts. However, the draft is just the start of a marathon season; a season rife with a plethora of tough choices that will either pave your path to fantasy greatness or lead you straight to the consolation bracket. Good roster management is what separates the champs from the chumps, and solid lineup decisions are a necessity for any winning fantasy team. That’s why it’s imperative to recognize when you should temper your expectations for your studs and if you can exploit a weak matchup by starting a player you’d usually bench. With that being said, today’s featured experts are here to give you the skinny on which studs could be in for a rough week along with lower-ranked players you should heavily consider starting.
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Q1. Who is a player outside of our top 100 flex rankings that is a deep sleeper start and why do you think he has upside this week?
Jordan Wilkins (RB – IND)
“While I love Josh Doctson this week too, I can’t ignore the fact that Wilkins is a near-lock for 15+ touches this week. Not only that, but the Bengals are on the opposite side of the ball and last season, they were second in fantasy points allowed to running backs with 23.71 per game. Yes, they made some progress toward improving that, but their best run defender, Vontaze Burfict, is suspended so with Wilkins starting, he could do some serious damage and stake a claim on keeping the starting job when Marlon Mack is good to go.”
– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros)
“Jordan Wilkins has huge upside this week. It seems that Mack is going to sit out and Wilkins will be the starter. The Bengals were 30th in yards allowed per game in 2017 with 127.9 and 22nd in yards allowed per attempt with 4.2.”
– Mauricio Gutierrez (Estadio Fantasy)
Josh Doctson (WR – WAS)
“If what the Cardinals have said is true about Patrick Peterson not shadowing opposing No. 1 wide receivers, Doctson is a great sleeper in Week 1. He’d primarily be matched up with Jamar Taylor, who is five-foot-11 while Doctson is six-foot-three with a 41-inch vertical. On top of that, Taylor has allowed a 111.4 QB Rating in his coverage during his five-year career. Doctson is someone you may be able to plug in and get top-20 production.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)
Matt Breida (SF – RB)
“Breida is a sneaky flex play this week, especially in PPR. With Jerick McKinnon out for the season, Alfred Morris is expected to get the early-down work with Breida being more of the change-of-pace, passing downs option. However, expect Kyle Shanahan to play the hot hand. With San Francisco on the road as a six-point underdog at Minnesota, the 49ers will likely be playing from behind, and that boosts Breida’s value.”
– Dan Clasgens (Pro Football Focus)
John Ross (WR – CIN)
“Ross is oozing with upside this week. He is going to be matched up with either Pierre Desir or Kenny Moore, neither of whom did well in limiting fantasy points per route to opposing wide receivers last year. With Nate Hairston as a decent slot cornerback who can likely handle Tyler Boyd and A.J. Green potentially getting extra coverage, Ross has all the potential in the world to have a massive game against the Colts on Sunday.”
– Dan Harris (FantasyPros)
Q2. On the flip side, what player inside the top 40 flex rankings is likely to disappoint fantasy owners this week?
Doug Baldwin (WR – SEA)
“I’ve been telling my followers to draft Baldwin, but it wasn’t for weeks like this. He’s going to match up with the best slot cornerback in football, Chris Harris Jr. Over the last four years, he’s allowed just a 51-percent completion rate in coverage, with just nine touchdowns on 337 targets, or one every 37.4 targets. While I think Baldwin will be an excellent buy-low after this game, he’s likely to disappoint in Week 1.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)
“Doug Baldwin figures to see a ton of targets come his way in 2018, but Week 1 isn’t shaping up to be a banner day for the veteran. He’s been battling a knee issue that kept him sidelined most of the preseason, but has been a full participant this week at practice. The bigger concern is playing in the high altitude of Denver in a tough road matchup with Chris Harris likely blanketing him most of the day. That leaves Baldwin’s upside extremely limited in the week ahead.”
– Dan Clasgens (Pro Football Focus)
“The most obvious answer here is Doug Baldwin. He admitted that he isn’t 100%, and he’ll almost certainly be shadowed by probably the best slot corner in the league in Chris Harris Jr. Baldwin is a phenomenal talent, and you probably can’t get away from him even in this tough matchup. But after missing the entire preseason, I’d massively temper my expectations for Week 1.”
– Dan Harris (FantasyPros)
Odell Beckham Jr. (WR – NYG)
“Owners be aware. By no means are you going to sit Beckham in Week 1 or any other week unless he is injured (let’s ask the fantasy gods not to let that happen), but he has one of the toughest matchups in the inaugural week playing against Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye. He is a solid WR2 than a true WR1 this week, he has to be in your lineups but don’t expect a top-eight performance.”
– Mauricio Gutierrez (Estadio Fantasy)
Adam Thielen (WR – MIN)
“We were wondering just a week ago whether Thielen would suit up against the 49ers after he was seen limping before leaving practice. Now, he isn’t on the injury report for Week 1, but that doesn’t exactly mean he is 100%. My largest concern, however, has little to do with the matchup and everything to do with Pat Shurmur being out of the system and the targets plummeting for Thielen this season, as a result.”
– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros)
Thank you to the experts for giving their starts and sits for Week 1. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter if you’re not already doing so and check out our latest podcast below for more great advice.
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