Let’s Stream Defenses: Week 17 (Fantasy Football)

Okay, the cool kids are gone. It’s just us nerds now, for whom 16 weeks of fantasy football isn’t nearly enough. Maybe you’re in a huge league with 8 playoff teams. Maybe you’re in a work league where there’s a cross-league championship this week. Maybe your championship is two weeks long, and you have to make up a 30-point deficit because you left Sony Michel on your bench hoping Todd Gurley would play, and then picked the wrong Rams backup when Gurley sat out (that one might be a bit personal). Sometimes the fantasy industry treats week 17 like it’s not all that important because so few people are still playing, but if you are playing, it’s the most important week of the year. Fortunately for you, there are a lot of good options this week. So for one last time in 2018, let’s stream some defenses.

Week 17 Projections

It’s kind of a shame that this is week 17 with so few people still playing fantasy, because this is an amazing week for defenses. There are five teams favored by at least 10 points, and every single team in my top 10 is playing at home. I don’t think I’ve ever had to rank a team with an implied point total under 20 outside my starters, and this week there are four.

Rank	Team	Opponent	O/U	Spread	PA	Sack	Turnovers	TD	FPTS
The Start Them With Confidence Tier
1	SEA	ARI	38.5	-13.5	12.5	2.74	1.55	0.19	9.92
2	HOU	JAC	40.5	-7	16.75	2.86	1.58	0.19	8.65
3	NE	NYJ	45.5	-13.5	16	2.32	1.54	0.17	8.11
4	PIT	CIN	45.5	-14.5	15.5	2.45	1.26	0.2	8
5	NYG	DAL	41.5	-6	17.75	2.95	1.28	0.18	7.79
6	LAR	SF	50	-10	20	2.77	1.68	0.14	7.7
The Still a Fine Choice Tier
7	BUF	MIA	38	-3.5	17.25	2.79	1.32	0.15	7.68
8	BAL	CLE	41	-6	17.5	2.72	1.35	0.16	7.68
9	KC	OAK	54	-13.5	20.25	3.11	1.45	0.16	7.6
10	MIN	CHI	40.5	-5	17.75	2.43	1.42	0.18	7.56
The Surely You Can Find Something Better Tier
11	PHI	@WAS	42	-6.5	17.75	2.48	1.23	0.18	7.2
12	GB	DET	44	-8	18	2.64	1.25	0.14	7.16
13	NO	CAR	44.5	-8.5	18	2.32	1.36	0.16	7.15
14	LAC	@DEN	41.5	-6.5	17.5	2.31	1.24	0.18	7.13
15	MIA	@BUF	38	3.5	20.75	2.45	1.46	0.18	6.99
16	IND	@TEN	44	-3	20.5	2.7	1.28	0.15	6.78
17	CHI	@MIN	40.5	5	22.75	2.44	1.44	0.19	6.69
18	WAS	PHI	42	6.5	24.25	2.61	1.4	0.11	6.03
19	JAC	@HOU	40.5	7	23.75	2.83	1.19	0.13	6.03
20	ATL	@TB	51.5	1.5	26.5	2.42	1.59	0.13	5.89
21	DAL	@NYG	41.5	6	23.75	2.72	1.19	0.13	5.88
22	CLE	@BAL	41	6	23.5	2.07	1.38	0.13	5.69
23	DEN	LAC	41.5	6.5	24	2.35	1.19	0.13	5.48
24	TB	ATL	51.5	-1.5	25	2.68	1.19	0.1	5.44
25	DET	@GB	44	8	26	2.79	1.11	0.12	5.34
26	TEN	IND	44	3	23.5	1.83	1.36	0.1	5.19
27	ARI	@SEA	38.5	13.5	26	2.67	1.05	0.13	5.14
28	CAR	@NO	44.5	8.5	26.5	1.71	1.14	0.12	4.21
29	CIN	@PIT	45.5	14.5	30	1.87	1.37	0.11	4.01
30	SF	@LAR	50	10	30	2.25	1.2	0.08	3.9
31	NYJ	@NE	45.5	13.5	29.5	1.85	1.15	0.1	3.61
32	OAK	@KC	54	13.5	33.75	1.8	1.21	0.06	2.43

Tell Me About The Top Picks

SEA vs ARI: Most weeks, it’s a big deal if any team is favored by more than 13 points, and you will start that D/ST all day. This week there are four, and Arizona has the lowest point projection among the underdogs at 12.5. Even bad defenses have feasted against Arizona this year, and the Seahawks are average.
HOU vs JAC: Last week, one of our developers came to me with a dilemma. He was deciding between Miami and Minnesota for a championship. Every single expert in our consensus had Minnesota ranked higher, but I had Miami higher. He went with Miami, and they scored 12 points compared to 7 from Minnesota. The reason I had them higher than every other expert was that they played Jacksonville – Miami being not a very good defense didn’t matter that much compared to how bad Jacksonville’s offense is. The Houston Texans – who are playing for a Division title – are a great start.
NE vs NYJ: The Patriots were my pick for a finals stash in ESPN leagues where the finals are weeks 16 and 17 combined.
PIT vs CIN: The Bengals haven’t exceeded 21 points since week 8, and that was against Tampa Bay. This is a lost season for Cincinnati, but the Steelers can still make the playoffs if Baltimore loses to Cleveland this week. As the heaviest favorite, Pittsburgh is an easy start.
NYG vs DAL: The acquisition of Amari Cooper hasn’t elevated Dallas quite as far as they were hoping. Now they find themselves as 6-point underdogs against the Giants of all teams, projected to allow the 2nd-most sacks in the league.
LAR vs SF: San Francisco has been a team to target ever since Jimmy Garoppolo got hurt, and that will still be true this week even if the Rams sit some key starters.
BUF vs MIA: This will be a beautiful mess of a game. Buffalo’s defense is the only good unit on the field.
BAL vs CLE: Baltimore will win the division if they win this game, and are likely to miss the playoffs if they don’t. As exciting as Baker Mayfield is for the future of the Browns, they’ve still been a good D/ST matchup, and Baltimore is one of the better real-football defenses in the league.
KC vs OAK: This is my pick for high-upside play of the week. If you’re in a two-week playoff and need to make up some ground after week 16, KC has the highest projection for sacks this week, and turnovers are always on the table against high-powered offenses. KC has not yet clinched a first-round bye, so I expect them to mostly play their starters.
MIN vs CHI: Both sides of this match have excellent defenses, but only the Vikings have a good offense. If you’ve been sticking with the Vikings this year, I’m happy to use them again.