FanDuel NBA Lineup Advice: Monday (1/14)

It’s another Monday in the world of NBA DFS and tonight we have a modest six-game slate to work with.  There are only 3 players on the slate carrying double-digit figure salaries so there is a good chance for a lot of variance with lineups. James Harden will look to continue his scoring barrage tonight against Memphis who he lit up for a triple-double back on New Year’s Eve. Anthony Davis looks to be in a smash spot tonight against the Clippers in what looks to be the game with the highest implied total of the slate. Blake Griffin is the only other player with a double-digit figure salary, but he gets a tough matchup tonight with Utah so I’ll be looking to fade him at that price point.

It’s important to note the players mentioned in this article are just ones I’m highlighting as focal points who have the best chance to deliver at least 5x value. These players are ones I’m recommending essentially as anchors in your lineup to help you finish in the green. As always with the NBA it’s vital to stay up-to-date on late scratches and injury news all the way up to the tip-off, which is 7:30 PM EST tonight.

As always I wish you the best of luck!

Check out today’s NBA Slam from FanDuel

Point Guard

Elfrid Payton (NOR): $6,200 @ LAC
I’ll be looking for a lot of exposure into this Clippers versus Pelicans matchup tonight as the implied total at the moment is 238 points, which is the highest of the slate right now and an impressive total overall. Elfrid Payton shows up in this list because the Clippers rank 23^rd in defense against point guards. Payton is still working his way back from injuy, but has had a few games to get up to speed and should have no problem with opportunity tonight as both teams rank in the top 10 as far as pace goes. With so many points and possessions being available to be had tonight it sets up nicely for a player like Payton to reach value, especially given his modest salary. Payton has averaged 12 points and five assists per game since his return from injury and has strung together five straight games of 21 or more FanDuel (FD) points. He’s a safe bet to at least offer a high floor and would need 31 FD points to get to 5x value, which he’s done in two of his past five games.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (LAC): $4,100 vs. NOR
On the flip side of this Clippers/Pelicans matchup is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander who appears in this list due to his cap-friendly salary and the matchup New Orleans ranks 28^th in the league against opposing point guards so we’d be looking to take advantage of this matchup tonight. With his $4,100 salary Gilgeous-Alexander would need just 20.5 FD points to hit 5x value, which he’s done in three of the past five games. While there is some risk in choosing him, he does carry 30+ FD point upside and can record numbers in all major statistical categories. He won’t blow you away with his scoring, but he makes his mark in supplemental stats typically which can buoy his production. If you’re looking to fade the top options of the point guard position then this would be a good place to pivot to due to the matchup and value.

Shooting Guard

Jrue Holiday (NOR): $8,500 @ LAC
Continuing with the theme of picking players from this game I’m a huge fan of the spot Jrue Holiday is in tonight. While the Clippers do rank eighth against the position, I still like Holiday because of the high implied total, the close spread indicating the likelihood of a game being close to the end and his history against this Clippers team. Last time Holiday saw this team he produced a 32 point, 14 assist, four rebound, four steal stat line that led to a 71.8 FD point outburst which remains his highest of the season. I certainly wouldn’t project the same type of stat line, but it’s definitely worth nothing his best performance came against this team. Holiday ranks third on the Pelicans in usage so if this game does remain close to the end it just improves his odds of at least achieving value. His selection for me really comes down to his high floor and high upside. He’s reached at least 40 FD points in three of his past four games and with this kind of pace-up matchup it seems to suit him perfectly.

James Harden (HOU): $13,300 vs. Memphis
Should be no surprise to see Harden in this list. Even at his elevated salary of $13,300, meaning he’d need 66.5 FD points to get 5x value, I’m still finding a way to fit him in my lineups until proven otherwise. Just for fun, I’ll list a couple of reasons why he’s in this list. Harden has exceeded 70 FD points four times in the last seven games, including two times above 80 FD points. He’s finished with at least 59 FD points in four straight games. He hasn’t scored less than 32 points in any game since December 11. Those are a quick few reasons, but really it just comes down to riding the wave with him. He has the potential to carry your lineup on any given night right now and would put you at a disadvantage not to have him. In his last outing against Memphis, he finished with a 43 point, 10 rebound, 13 assist triple-double leading to 71.5 FD points back on New Year’s Eve. It’s easy to see why I’d have no problem finding a way to fit his salary into my lineup.

Small Forward

Nemanja Bjelica (SAC): $4,500 vs. POR
Small Forward is a bit of a tough position to fill tonight so I’ll be looking at value options based on matchup. Nemanja Bjelica shows up in this list because he draws a matchup with Portland who rank 28^th in defense against the small forward position putting Bjelica in a good spot. In his last out against Portland, he posted a 14 point, 15 rebound performance leading to 36 FD points on January 1^st. His playing time since then has been up and down, but he’s a near lock to at least obtain 5x value if playing 25 or more minutes. In the last four games he’s logged at least 25 minutes he’s recorded 24.5, 32.3, 29.7 and 36 FD points in those last four games respectively. That being said he’s logged at least 25 minutes in one of the past four games. I’m taking the chance he sees more than 25 minutes tonight however due to the matchup alone.

Nikola Mirotic (NOR): $6,100 @ LAC
There is a little bit of unknown with Nikola Mirotic tonight given it’ll be his third game back from a 12 game absence due to injury. I view this as a good opportunity to capitalize on a player coming at a reduced cost since he’s being brought back in slowly from injury. Tonight he gets the benefit of a Clippers defense that ranks 22^nd against small forwards and a pace-up matchup with a 238 implied game total. Those three factors alone are enough to take a chance on a pure scorer when there will be plenty of points to be had tonight. Some may be concerned about his playing time as he’s played 21 and 26 minutes in his two games back from injury, but I think this matchup gives him plenty of upside to make it worth selecting him with a chance to see his minute total increase.

Power Forward

Anthony Davis (NOR): $12,700 @ LAC
Davis along with James Harden are the two most obvious picks on the slate tonight and I definitely understand why you’d want to go contrarian and fade one or both. However, for me, it seems tough to fade Davis tonight in a game against the 25^th ranked defense against power forwards with the implied total being so high at 238. His salary is inflated and he will need 63.5 FD points to get value, which is nothing to dismiss, but he has accomplished that feat in three of the past five games. Now with Davis there’s always the risk he gets hurt during the game and could really hurt your lineup if it happens. This matchup is worth that chance for me especially given that Davis carries 80+ FD point upside, which he’s done twice in the past five games. I’ll be rolling Davis into my lineups tonight with confidence that he will at the very least provide a very high floor.

Marcus Morris (BOS): $5,100 @ BKN
Morris shows up in this list as a solid value play tonight against a Brooklyn team ranking 15^th against the position. I’ve selected him to highlight his recent play as a reason you could slide him into your lineup as a little bit of cap relief. Morris comes in at a modest salary of $5,100, meaning he’d need 25.5 FD points to hit 5x value. He’s accomplished this in seven of his past 10 games, including three straight (two of those three were 30+ FD point outings). While he doesn’t carry an upside that will blow you away he will provide a stable output that you can rely on and would be a very low risk option if you’re diving into this $5k range for a player. He’s about as safe as they come with production and has a very stable floor (only finished below 20 FD points once in the past 15 games). In this matchup tonight he carries the upside of over 6x value, which would definitely help elevate your lineup and let you spend up at other positions.

Center

Pau Gasol (SAS): $3,600 vs. CHA
Center is a position tonight I’m willing to punt on so I’ll be looking in the $3k range for my lineup. If you’re looking to do the same consider Pau Gasol who is likely to draw another start tonight against the Hornets. Charlotte ranks 22^nd against other centers so that definitely helps and the Spurs actually come in with an implied scoring total of 116 points. Taking a chance on Gasol will allow you to spend up at other positions and he’d need just 18 FD points to get to 5x value. Not much of a scorer anymore Gasol relies mostly on his rebounding acumen for his fantasy production so essentially you’d be gambling on a lot of missed shots. Charlotte ranks 20^th in field goal percentage in the league shooting 45.1 percent from the field, so there will be some rebounding opportunities to be had. Look for Gasol to take advantage of this and do just enough to validate his selection.

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Chris Berg is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Chris, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @bergey13.