Reactionary.
That’s the one word that best encapsulates fantasy owners. Instead of having patience or using a larger sample size, owners will react too strongly to an offseason, month, or even week of a player.
That’s where you, the savvy fantasy owner, can get a leg-up on the competition. It’s what causes prospects who don’t perform right out of the gate to be considered post-hype players. Not everyone is a Ronald Acuna or Juan Soto, folks.
The same holds true for players who have performed consistently over the course of their career or were highly-touted heading into a season. If they don’t perform well, they will come at a discount the following year.
Now, are they guaranteed to bounce back? No, not at all. However, discounting the possibility of them doing so — especially at their draft discount — is a mistake.
Here are 10 players who could bounce back this year, including what is working for and against them.
Why He Can Bounce Back
Odor actually had a decent year. Well, he had a very Odor-like year. It was filled with hot stretches where he carried your team, followed by cold stretches where you wanted to cut him. The biggest positive was the Odor upped his walk-rate to eight percent, which is the highest mark of his career. He attributes that to learning from Shin-Soo Choo.
What Could Stop Him
If Odor falls back into his no-walk-taking ways.
Verdict
Bounce-back season from Odor. He’s a top-12 second baseman in category-based leagues.
Why He Can Bounce Back
He actually did in the second half after a disappointing first half. You wouldn’t know that he had a down year last year since there is little discount on his draft price. Getting his already-high velocity back to his 2017 rate can make him this year’s Luis Severino as far as leaping into the next pitching tier.
What Could Stop Him
Castillo needs to continue to harness his control and limit the high-pitch-count innings. Castillo went six or more innings in just 13 of his 31 starts last season.
Verdict
Castillo will be a legit ace heading into 2019 drafts.
Why He Can Bounce Back
His FIP was nearly a run lower than his ERA, and it was closer to his 2017 numbers than his 2018. If he can get his curveball back to one of the best pitches in baseball and increase his groundball rate, he’ll be a top-20 pitcher in 2019.
What Could Stop Him
He has one great season on the books, and he was a late bloomer. If he can’t get his curveball back consistently, he’ll be a low-4 ERA pitcher.
Verdict
Between his 2017 and 2018 numbers.
Why He Can Bounce Back
Gray was extremely unlucky last year. He’s really not that different than German Marquez.
What Could Stop Him
Gray is the same pitcher in Coors as he is out of Coors. That’s … not good.
Verdict
Yet another frustrating, up-and-down season from him.
Why He Can Bounce Back
Polanco had a lot of helium heading into draft season last year before getting suspended. He’s going late in drafts and is a great floor play.
What Could Stop Him
He just signed a contract extension, so he’ll get his playing time. Limited ceiling and not much of an impact outside of average could push him down.
Verdict
Bounces back to a top-15 shortstop.
Why He Can Bounce Back
Kingery was everyone’s favorite breakout player before the 2018 season. The Phillies locked him up to a long-term deal before the season even started. Kingery had one of the lowest hard-hit rates in baseball last year. If he can increase his hard-hit rate and take more walks, he could be a post-hype breakout.
What Could Stop Him
He doesn’t have an everyday job. The Phillies did a great job this offseason, but Kingery is currently blocked. He’s looking at starting maybe four times per week.
Verdict
A lot has to happen for him to bounce back to his pre-2018 draft hype. 2020 seems more realistic.
Why He Can Bounce Back
He has the pedigree, and he showed a glimpse of his potential in 2017. Joe Maddon likes to play matchups, and playing Happ primarily against lefties could be a big boost for his numbers. He just can’t hit righties.
What Could Stop Him
Continual failure against righties and inability to cut down on his strikeout rate.
Verdict
He won’t be a top 150 player, but he’s going to be a startable option most of the season and a good OF4 in leagues that count walks.
Why He Can Bounce Back
He has to stay healthy. It’s really that simple. Game for game, he’s an OF2 for your lineup. Betting on more than 120 games is the issue.
What Could Stop Him
See above.
Verdict
Bounce back. He’s going to return enormous value this season.
Why He Can Bounce Back
He’s back where he belongs … if you believe in that narrative. Santana is always more valuable in points or OBP leagues than he is in roto or category leagues, and he had another Santana season last year in that respect. It’s more that his 2017 was an outlier than anything.
What Could Stop Him
Continuing to try to sell out for power. He had an elevated FB% last year, which took away from his line-drive rate.
Verdict
He’ll be a top-10 first baseman in points and OBP leagues, and a corner infielder in category-based leagues.
Why He Can Bounce Back
He’s moving to the easier league and out of Yankee Stadium. He’s a groundball pitcher, and Cincinnati doesn’t quite have the expectations that New York does.
What Could Stop Him
He’s been a mediocre pitcher for the majority of the past three years. Became more of a thrower instead of pitcher with the Yankees.
Verdict
He won’t be the Cy-Young contender version of Sonny Gray that we’ve seen in the past, but he will be a good fourth or fifth pitcher on your roster.
Michael Waterloo is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Michael, check out his archive and follow him @MichaelWaterloo.
