Fantasy Football Debate: Will Christian Kirk Break Through in Arizona?

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Every fantasy football draft season, there are players that cause a divide between fantasy football experts and analysts. To get a sense of the most volatile players entering fantasy football drafts, you can check out our Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) and view the player’s standard deviation. The lower the standard deviation, the more agreement around a player’s ranking. But a high standard deviation means our experts have a high range of expected outcomes.

Since these are the players that tend to make or break fantasy football drafts, we’ve paired our experts and writers — one higher on a player compared to our ECR and one lower — to bring to you a fantasy football player debate.

Today, our debate will center on Cardinals wide receiver Christian Kirk. Kirk has an ECR of WR35 in half-PPR scoring formats. Our writer Brian Rzeppa (@brianrzeppa) is higher on Kirk, while writer Paul Ghiglieri (@FantasyGhigs) isn’t as confident in Kirk entering the new season.

Let’s check out the fantasy football debate for Christian Kirk.

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Fantasy Football Debate: Christian Kirk

Kirk was one of the top rookie WRs in fantasy last year despite playing in only 12 games and on the worst offensive team in football. The Cardinals are going to air it out a ton this year and his production should at the very least be at a WR2 level

— Brian Rzeppa (@brianrzeppa) August 21, 2019

AZ has a far more loaded WR core this year. They added Andy Isabella, Hakeem Butler, and KeeSean Johnson in the draft. Fitzgerald returns. Why would a new coach add 3 receivers, two in first 4 rds, if Kirk had WR2 potential or better? Questionable fit.

— Paul Ghiglieri (@FantasyGhigs) August 21, 2019

Butler and Johnson were 4th and 6th round picks, respectively, and Kirk is far more well-rounded than Isabella. A coach like Kingsbury is going to want as many options as possible, so I don’t see it as a shot at Kirk. On a per-target basis, Kirk was AZ’s most productive WR in ‘18

— Brian Rzeppa (@brianrzeppa) August 21, 2019

Most productive WR without any of the names there you just mentioned. And being productive on AZ last year isn’t saying much. I think he’s a quality player but the fantasy community overvalues how productive he will be. Undersized slot receiver. Just as much bust as boom here.

— Paul Ghiglieri (@FantasyGhigs) August 21, 2019

I don’t think any of those will be fantasy relevant, though. He’s also not a slot guy; he played 80% of his snaps on the outside last year. He played a year in college with Kyler Murray, too, so Kirk should have a level of chemistry with him that the rest of the group doesn’t

— Brian Rzeppa (@brianrzeppa) August 21, 2019

Not to mention, Kirk played in only 7 of 16 games last year. Not sure we can confidently predict WR2 production for a rookie last year who played in only 7 games and inherits a new coach and offense. Lots of obstacles there, health chief among them.

— Paul Ghiglieri (@FantasyGhigs) August 21, 2019

He played in 12 games last year and I think at his ADP you don’t need either a breakout or Murray to be lights out by any stretch of the imagination. Their scheme (and their defense not being great) means they’re going to throw a ton — which means volume for Kirk (1/2)

— Brian Rzeppa (@brianrzeppa) August 21, 2019

I should clarify – he “started” only seven games. Isabella turned in PFF’s highest grades WR season since 2014. He’s going to be involved deep. I don’t think you’re giving KeeSean J enough credit. He’s turned heads this preseason.

— Paul Ghiglieri (@FantasyGhigs) August 21, 2019

But at that point we’re weighing college and preseason production (one of which coming from a 6th round pick) to actual NFL production. Beyond that, I think Kirk offers better value than the players surrounding his ADP that all come with their own risks

— Brian Rzeppa (@brianrzeppa) August 21, 2019

Disagree. Robby Anderson is the number 1 WR on his team. Will Fuller has a better track record of performance. Pettis has the same floor but arguably a much higher ceiling. Curtis Samuel’s boom potential fat outshines Kirk. I’d rather have all 4 over Kirk.

— Paul Ghiglieri (@FantasyGhigs) August 21, 2019

Fuller has a laundry list of injuries and I would safely say that Pettis has a lower floor, especially after the constant stream of negative press he’s received throughout the past couple of months

— Brian Rzeppa (@brianrzeppa) August 21, 2019

If we are penalizing Fuller for injuries we should do the same for Kirk. The Jones fracture is a concern. Athletes often require a 2nd surgery. I’d rather have a player with a clearer path to top production on his own team or someone more dynamic like Fuller.

— Paul Ghiglieri (@FantasyGhigs) August 21, 2019

Fuller has a far longer list of injuries though and they’re ones that linger. Let alone the fact that he blew out his knee last year and is a guy that relies tremendously on his speed

— Brian Rzeppa (@brianrzeppa) August 21, 2019

Kirk lacks the physical attributes to dominate outside and Isabella is a better deep threat. There is a case to be made that Kirk’s ADP is actually his ceiling.

— Paul Ghiglieri (@FantasyGhigs) August 22, 2019

He excelled on the outside last year though. Extrapolated over a full season, he would’ve been the WR36. That’s right at his ADP right now, and I think it’d be crazy to think last year was his peak

— Brian Rzeppa (@brianrzeppa) August 22, 2019

Kirk caught 60% of his targets 20 or more yds downfield. That’s where nearly 230 of his receiving yards came from. Much of his production last year was tied to deep targets from a different QB in a different offense.

— Paul Ghiglieri (@FantasyGhigs) August 22, 2019

It was a much worse offense though and one that didn’t rely upon downfield passing. Kirk can hit big plays, as evidenced by your statistic, but he also has the route-running ability to be successful underneath

— Brian Rzeppa (@brianrzeppa) August 22, 2019

AZ will pass often, and when they do they will spread it around. On Murray’s first drive of the first preseason game last week, he threw to five different receivers, Kirk not being one of them. DJ will also catch passes out of the backfield. Targets will not funnel through Kirk.

— Paul Ghiglieri (@FantasyGhigs) August 22, 2019

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