Football season may be underway, but there’s still plenty of action to be had on the baseball side of DFS. We’ve got an eight-game slate tonight, with NYY @ BOS boasting the highest expected total with a 10.0 O/U. This is certainly a pitching-heavy slate tonight, as there are 10 pitchers with a salary of $8,000 or higher. That means there is no obvious chalk in terms of stacks tonight, and we’ve got several options to use on this slate.
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Starting Pitcher
Madison Bumgarner (SF): $9,000 vs. PIT
There are a lot of big-name, high-priced pitchers on this slate, and as a result, we’ll find the most value in the mid-tiers. Bumgarner could have tons of value as the sixth-most expensive pitcher since he draws an excellent matchup. The Pirates have been the worst offense in the league against left-handed pitching this season, mustering a measly 73 wRC+ and .141 ISO collectively. The biggest knock against Bumgarner is strikeout upside, and while it’s true he doesn’t have the upside of Jacob DeGrom, Bumgarner has more strikeout potential that it may seem on the surface. If one looks at Bumgarner’s 8.87 K/9, he seems like a league average strikeout pitcher (league average K/9 for starters is 8.54), but because Bumgarner pitches so many innings his K/9 is depressed compared to pitchers who don’t have the same longevity. Bumgarner’s 24.3% strikeout rate is 2% higher than league average, giving us solid upside on that front. Bumgarner has a lot going for him in this matchup and is my favorite pitcher on this slate given his price.
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