With the 2020 NFL Combine just weeks away, now is a good time to take a look at running backs that may end up being overvalued during the pre-draft process. This running back class is full of potential starters and also features a host of other backs who will feature prominently in a committee. Running backs that make it to the NFL generally look good against their college competition. The varying degrees of competition they face makes it hard to truly get a gauge on the strengths and weaknesses of players who play weaker schedules. Analytics help add to the knowledge gaps, but there is still more work to be done.
The NFL Combine helps with the evaluation of the running back position, as athletic testing in a standardized environment can help add context to tape and analytics. Impressing in shorts does not always translate to the field, as history is littered with combine warriors at every position that failed to succeed in the NFL. What the combine can do, however is separate prospects you had difficulty separating beforehand.
To qualify for this list, a running back has to at least plausibly be in the day-two conversation. They also need to have played at a program big enough that detractors would not immediately write them off as a day-three prospect at best. There is no use in suggesting that Pete Guerriro may be overvalued despite rushing for 1,995 yards and 18 touchdowns, as he played in the FCS for Monmouth University against a significantly lower caliber of competition than that found in the majority of the FBS.
Pinpointing which running backs may be overvalued at this point of the pre-draft process comes down to where draft analysts and prognosticators view a certain prospect versus where actual NFL teams may have them pegged. It also comes down to projected production and potential role in the NFL. This is a much more talented class than what we saw last season with multiple, potential day-one talents. The talent gap between the two classes is significant.
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Lamical Perine (RB – Florida)
Tape evaluated: South Carolina, Virginia, Miami, Auburn, Georgia (2018), Michigan (2018), LSU (2018), Kentucky (2018)
Perine is a talented running back that may be a tad overvalued when it comes to the NFL Draft. Due to his SEC pedigree and explosiveness during the Senior Bowl, Perine may have climbed past more than a few running backs who will likely be better in the NFL. You may ask how I could list Perine in my top-10 running backs just last month, and now place him on the overvalued list. Let’s break it down.
Let’s start with the raw numbers. He had a rock-solid 826 rushing yards and seven touchdowns on just 134 carries against SEC competition in 2018. He was in an even timeshare, but was the preferred receiving back, and added 170 yards and a touchdown on 13 receptions. He made a curious decision to return to Florida for his senior season, ostensibly because he believed he could increase his draft stock. He dropped 15 pounds to be lighter on his feet, but saw his efficiency drop, as he saw his yards per carry fall from 6.16 in 2018 to 5.12 in 2019. He finished the season with 676 rushing yards and six touchdowns on 134 carries and 40 receptions for 262 receiving yards and five touchdowns.
On one hand, Perine is talented enough to have forced a backfield split with a back I personally graded higher in the Carolina Panthers’ Jordan Scarlett. He shows explosiveness as a receiver, and has the hip fluidity to be a force on screen passes. He is a larger back than you would think from watching him on tape as he moves like a scatback, but has featured back size. He has the size and pad level to run between the tackles and shows a noticeable burst when he finds a crease. If he lands on a weak depth chart, he has the talent to lead a committee. He could also be a strong spot starter behind a good offensive line.
Unfortunately, Perine failed to increase his stock in his senior season. The drop in weight, while good for his play style and potential as a receiver at the next level, confirmed that he likely would not be an above-average, every-down runner in the NFL. He has not shown enough to be drafted for a lead-back role. There is little reason to think that he will even be anything more than a committee back that has a third-string floor on a good depth chart. Perine hauled in 40 passes in 2019 but managed just 5.24 yards per target. To put that number into context, only six of the top 20 running backs in this class had a lower yards-per-target. Despite hauling in 40 receptions, his reception market share was less than 0.5 percent higher than Zack Moss, who had just 28 receptions but a higher receiving yard market share and a 2020 draft-class leading 12.52 yards-per-target.
Perine is likely to be drafted to fill a receiving-back role in the NFL, but his analytics from this past season suggest he may not be ready for that role as a rookie. He was much better from a yards-per-target standpoint in 2018 when he had a very strong 10.0 yards-per-target. With that being said, he had just 13 receptions in 2018, which makes for a much smaller sample size. Perine’s 40 receptions in 2019 may have given us a more accurate picture of his upside in the NFL. He is a talented back who deserves to be in the day two mix. He has a potential future as a committee or change or pace back. There is however a strong likelihood that he will be drafted before a number of backs who will turn out to be superior pros.
Salvon Ahmed (RB – Washington)
Tape evaluated: Oregon, Georgia, Virginia Tech, Arizona, Utah, BYU
Ahmed is a talented running back with some salivating tools. While he has starter-level upside, he is a candidate to be overdrafted. Expected to be one of the fastest running backs at the 2020 NFL Combine, Ahmed will likely vault up draft boards in the process. Electronically timed with a 4.32 40-time in high school, if he can match that speed in Indianapolis, it will be the fastest 40-time for a running back since 2016.
Ahmed finally got his chance to start in 2019, and responded with a strong enough junior season that he decided to declare for the 2020 NFL Draft. Ahmed ran for 1,020 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns on 5.4 yards per carry. He also had 16 receptions but managed just 84 receiving yards.
Ahmed displays good burst and is explosive through the hole. He shows good strength and contact balance and could prove to be a steal if he lasts until late day three. He has good cutting ability which allows him to create yards even when his offensive line lets him down. His track speed is evident when he finds a crease, and he could be an explosive option behind a good offensive line.
Ahmed flashes some serious talent as a runner and could turn into something special if he runs a sub-4.4 40-yard dash. However, he is not ready to be an immediate starter and will likely be drafted before quite a few running backs who would be above-average to good starting running backs in the NFL. While his cutting ability allows him to bounce some runs to the outside, his vision issues result in too many stuffs when he tries to take it to the outside. Electric speed is great, but Ahmed is going to have to learn how to take advantage of it on a more consistent basis.
He offers next-to-nothing as a receiver, as he averaged a pitiful 2.5 yards per target in 2019. He showed more explosion as a receiver when he was operating as Myles Gaskin‘s change of pace. Speaking of Gaskin, it does not bode well for Ahmed, that despite his obvious dynamic speed, that he was unable to beat out a running back who lasted until the seventh round in one of the weaker running back classes in recent memory. Salvon will enter the consensus day two conversation after the NFL Combine, but his production and film suggest a high upside player that unfortunately has a bust floor, that may result in Ahmed being left on the board until the latter half of day three.
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Raju, check out his profile and follow him @FantasyContext.