It’s been just under three years since the Chicago Bears gave up picks, 3, 67, 111, and a 2018 third-round pick to the San Francisco 49ers to move up to draft Mitchell Trubisky second overall in the 2017 NFL Draft. Now, the Bears traded for Nick Foles to add competition to the quarterback room. Even without taking into account who the Bears passed up in the 2017 draft for Trubisky, it’s fair to say that he’s not lived up to his draft capital. In addition to the haul they gave up to acquire him, the Bears now also had to give up a fourth-round pick to acquire Foles, who could end up replacing Trubisky as the starter.
Rather than a long-term fix, this move appears to be a hail-mary from Bears GM Ryan Pace to save his and possibly Matt Nagy’s jobs. Trubisky is an unrestricted free agent after the 2020 season, and according to Adam Schefter, Foles could void his contract after the upcoming season as well.
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Nick Foles already has restructred his contract with the Bears, per source. He still has three years left, still has $21 million guaranteed left, but Foles now has the ability to void the deal after either of the first two years depending on his performance. Deal includes upside.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 18, 2020
While this may be a short-term solution for the Bears, it’s still a situation that’s worth reviewing for superflex or 2QB leagues. Neither player is worth rostering in single quarterback leagues unless there are 16 or more teams.
Same As It Ever Was
| Games started | Completion % | TD % | Int. % | Yards per attempt. | Adj. Yards per attempt | Sack % | |
| Nick Foles | 48 | 61.9 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 5.4 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 41 | 63.4 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 6.8 |
When comparing the career passing stats of Foles and Trubisky, Foles does appear to be the better quarterback. Foles does have a lower career completion percentage, but he bests Trubisky in TD and interception percentage. Foles also takes fewer sacks and has a better yards per attempt and adjusted yards per attempt. Per airyards.com, their career aDOTs are similar with Foles checking with an average depth of target of 8.5 yards and Trubisky with an aDOT of 8.2.
Looking at those stats might make it appear easy to declare Foles as the presumptive favorite to be the starter next year but I don’t believe it’s that clear cut. If you remove Foles’ magical, outlier 2013 season when he threw for nearly 2,900 yards, 27 touchdowns, and just two interceptions in 10 games, his career numbers take a significant hit. His career TD% drops to 3.5, his yards per attempt fall to 6.5, and his AY/A falls to 6.34.
Trubisky’s running ability is also something that Foles lacks. He’s rushed for 862 yards and seven touchdowns compared to Foles 390 yards and five touchdowns (three of which occurred during the 2013 season). Considering both Trubisky’s added value as a runner and that Foles career stats are inflated by one outlier season, my money is on Trubisky opening the season as the Bears starter.
But who is the starter on Week 1 ultimately may not even matter that much. Both quarterbacks were benched at one point last season. Trubisky was benched for the final two drives during a late-season loss against the Rams and Foles for the final three games last year. Foles has been handed starting jobs before that he’s lost and has never shown to be a consistent starter for a full season. It’s only been one year since the Jaguars gifted Foles a four year $88 million contract and they couldn’t wait to cut bait on him.
Trubisky has failed to live up to his draft capital, and the addition of Foles to the quarterback room isn’t a sign of confidence from the Bears. Based on the struggles both quarterbacks have exhibited in the past it’s easy to envision a scenario where each player starts multiple games but neither player ever has a secure hold on the starting job.
Fantasy Outlook
So which of these two quarterbacks do you want to buy in superflex/2QB leagues? You could opt for Trubisky who had seven games last season when he scored 10 or fewer fantasy points out of 14 full games played. Or do you go with Nick Foles who was benched two and a half games after he came back from a broken collarbone? You should take an all or nothing stance on these quarterbacks. My preference would be to sell either quarterback that I have on any of my rosters. Based on both of their histories neither quarterback is anything more than a bye week streaming option in 2QB leagues (where you must start two quarterbacks every week). In superflex leagues, I would start an extra wide receiver or running back over both Trubisky and Foles.
Look for the owners in your leagues that already own Foles/Trubisky and offer them whichever one you own. If you can get a late 2nd round rookie pick you should accept that offer immediately. If you need to package one of these players with a 4th round rookie pick to get a 2nd rounder that is still a good move. If your efforts to sell them fall flat I wouldn’t be opposed to buying them, but I wouldn’t pay more than a back-end 3rd round rookie pick.
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Shane Manila is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Shane, check out his archive and follow him @ShaneIsTheWorst.
