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Rapid Reaction: Stefon Diggs Dealt to Bills (2020 Fantasy Football)

Mar 16, 2020

Stefon Diggs gets a fresh start.

Stefon Diggs gets to start anew in Buffalo, where the Bills suddenly have one of the more intriguing offenses in the AFC. But will Diggs see his fantasy football stock soar, or is he in for a rougher ride in 2020? We have our analysts on the case:

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Q1. What is the fantasy football impact of the Buffalo Bills acquiring Stefon Diggs?

It’s tough to say it’s a great move for Diggs, especially from a fantasy standpoint, as he goes from one run-first team to another, only this one has a much less accurate quarterback. It’s not to say Josh Allen didn’t take a step forward last year – he did – but he fails to complete 60 percent of his passes and has averaged just 27.9 pass attempts per game. The addition of Diggs will surely have those on the rise but it’s difficult to see anything more than 120 targets for him. He should be a slightly better version of John Brown‘s 2019 season, which puts him in the middling WR2 conversation.
-Mike Tagliere (@MikeTagliereNFL)

It’s not great, Bob. Diggs may have been inconsistent with the Vikings last year, but he had a fairly accurate quarterback and a system that worked for him. Josh Allen may make a fine fantasy quarterback (and a decent real-life one, of course), but accuracy is hardly his strong suit and the Bills’ offense, like the Vikings’, focuses on the run. He’ll also be sharing the load with John Brown, with whom Allen had an excellent rapport. Diggs should move to more of a borderline WR2 heading into 2020.
-Dan Harris (@danharris80)

Stefon Diggs being traded to Buffalo is a lateral move, at best, for his fantasy outlook in 2020 and beyond. He had a good thing going in Minnesota with Adam Thielen being his only other real threat for targets. Now, he moves onto a WR corps with guys like John Brown and Cole Beasley. While he’ll most likely be the WR1 of that group, it’s hard to see it amounting to more than a WR2 finish in 2020.
-Kyle Yates (@KyleYNFL)

Q2. Who else is impacted by Diggs’ acquisition from a fantasy perspective?

This puts a severe dent in the fantasy value of John Brown, as he goes from a low-end WR2, to someone who will struggle to see more than 5-6 targets on a consistent basis. That puts him in the boom/bust WR4 territory and someone who’ll likely be overdrafted, as Diggs is the younger and more explosive player at this point in their career.
-Mike Tagliere (@MikeTagliereNFL)

John Brown‘s value takes a major hit with the trade, as he’s likely to see a dip from the more than seven targets per game he averaged last year to more like five targets. That moves him out of the reliable WR range he had built himself into this season into more of a borderline WR3. Josh Allen, meanwhile, gets himself another significant target, one capable of making plays even if Allen’s accuracy remains sketchy. Allen was going to be a QB1 in drafts this year anyway, but with the addition, he’ll likely move into a top-six play. Adam Thielen‘s value shoots up for the moment, but just how much will depend on who replaces Diggs at receiver for the Vikings. But unless the replacement is as established as Diggs, Thielen’s value should tick up a bit.
-Dan Harris (@danharris80)

Josh Allen is the big name that is impacted here, because it gives him more receiving options. The Bills have been trying to duct tape together a proper WR corps over the past few seasons and this move finally puts them over the edge. John Brown also potentially loses some of his ceiling, but he’s still going to be a fine weekly option as a downfield threat. Diggs works the middle of the field, so this leaves Beasley’s targets unaffected as well. On the other side of the coin, Minnesota now has Adam Thielen, Olabisi Johnson, and Chad Beebe as the WRs left on that roster. They’ll need to bring someone in this offseason, but either way, Thielen’s Dynasty stock just rose up a little bit. He’s going to be heavily targeted in 2020.
-Kyle Yates (@KyleYNFL)

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