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Who had the Most Accurate NFL Mock Draft in 2020?

Apr 27, 2020

We waited 42 days. After the NBA suspended their season on March 12, the big four American sports were at a standstill for 42 days until the NFL draft. As unusual as this draft was, we still got a brief weekend where the world of sports felt normal. Even from his basement, football fans have never been so happy (or happy at all, really) to see Roger Goodell.

Part of the grand tradition in the NFL draft is the practice of everyone and their mother publishing a mock draft. We at FantasyPros are obsessed with finding out who is the best at predicting the future, so we collected mock drafts from 212 experts from around the internet. That is by far the biggest pool of experts in the three years we’ve done this competition – the prior two years each had just under 140 experts.

Our accuracy methodology measures mock drafts on four axes, with the goal of capturing all the attributes that can be good about a mock. We focus on the first round, and rate how well each mock draft predicts:

  1. When each player would be drafted (4 points per pick)
  2. The order players in each position group would be drafted (3 points)
  3. Which positions each team would draft in the first round (2 points)
  4. Which team each player would actually end up on (1 point)

This year’s draft was, as a whole, much easier to predict than prior years. We saw a mock draft score over 200 points for the first time since running this competition. The median score in 2020 was 156, compared to 137 in 2019 and 135 in 2018. This was partially due to the unusually low number of mid-draft trades – there were only three trades involving first-round picks.

Without further ado, here are our most accurate experts for the 2020 NFL Draft. The full accuracy leaderboard (200+ mocks) is available here.

Top 10 Mocks – Overall Leaderboard
Rank Analyst Points
1 Steve Serby – NY Post 203
2 Nate Bouda – NFL Trade Rumors 196
3 Jason Pruett – DRAFTPLEX 194
4 Albert Breer – The MMQB 193
5 Jared Smola – Draft Sharks 190
6 Matthew Freedman – FantasyLabs 189
7 Scotty Payne – Mile High Report 188
8 Elisha Twerski – numberFire 187
9 Shane Hallam – Fake Pigskin 186
10 Dave Birkett – Detroit Free Press 184

View entire Accuracy Leaderboard (212 mocks graded)

Steve Serby from the New York Post put together an incredible mock draft for our first 200-point score ever. He managed to score in the top five of all four categories, including having the best score in two of them. He tied for the lead at projecting each player’s draft spot, and stood alone as the only expert to correctly predict the team/position paring for 23 of 32 possible picks. In second place we had Nate Bouda from NFL Trade Rumors, who also led the field in two categories. He tied for the lead at predicting the order the players would be drafted within their on-field position, and was one of only two experts to predict the correct landing spots for 13 different players.

As always, you can see the scoring breakdown for all 212 mocks in our Mock Draft Accuracy leaderboard.

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1Christian McCaffrey (CAR)RB
2Saquon Barkley (NYG)RB
3Michael Thomas (NO)WR
4Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)RB
5Dalvin Cook (MIN)RB
6Derrick Henry (TEN)RB
7Alvin Kamara (NO)RB
8Tyreek Hill (KC)WR
9Joe Mixon (CIN)RB
10Davante Adams (GB)WR
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11Nick Chubb (CLE)RB
12Julio Jones (ATL)WR
13Josh Jacobs (LV)RB
14DeAndre Hopkins (ARI)WR
15Chris Godwin (TB)WR
16Travis Kelce (KC)TE
17Kenny Golladay (DET)WR
18George Kittle (SF)TE
19Aaron Jones (GB)RB
20Mike Evans (TB)WR
21Kenyan Drake (ARI)RB
22Miles Sanders (PHI)RB
23Amari Cooper (DAL)WR
24Mark Andrews (BAL)TE
25Lamar Jackson (BAL)QB
26Patrick Mahomes (KC)QB
27Austin Ekeler (LAC)RB
28Odell Beckham Jr. (CLE)WR
29A.J. Brown (TEN)WR
30Todd Gurley (ATL)RB
1Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL)LF,CF
2Mike Trout (LAA)CF
3Christian Yelich (MIL)LF,RF
4Cody Bellinger (LAD)1B,CF
5Mookie Betts (LAD)CF,RF
6Francisco Lindor (CLE)SS
7Trevor Story (COL)SS
8Gerrit Cole (NYY)SP
9Trea Turner (WSH)SS
10Jacob deGrom (NYM)SP
 View All Rankings 
11Nolan Arenado (COL)3B
12Juan Soto (WSH)LF
13Max Scherzer (WSH)SP
14Freddie Freeman (ATL)1B
15Jose Ramirez (CLE)3B
16Alex Bregman (HOU)3B,SS
17J.D. Martinez (BOS)LF,RF
18Walker Buehler (LAD)SP
19Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD)SS
20Anthony Rendon (LAA)3B
21Rafael Devers (BOS)3B
22Bryce Harper (PHI)RF
23Justin Verlander (HOU)SP
24Starling Marte (ARI)CF
25Jack Flaherty (STL)SP
26Javier Baez (CHC)SS
27Stephen Strasburg (WSH)SP
28Xander Bogaerts (BOS)SS
29Shane Bieber (CLE)SP
30Jose Altuve (HOU)2B
1Anthony Davis (LAL)PF,C
2James Harden (HOU)PG,SG
3Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)SF,PF
4Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN)C
5Kevin Durant (BKN)SF,PF
6LeBron James (LAL)SF,PF
7Stephen Curry (GSW)PG,SG
8Nikola Jokic (DEN)PF,C
9Damian Lillard (POR)PG
10Russell Westbrook (HOU)PG
 View All Rankings 
11Victor Oladipo (IND)PG,SG
12Paul George (LAC)SF,PF
13Joel Embiid (PHI)PF,C
14Kawhi Leonard (LAC)SG,SF
15Chris Paul (OKC)PG
16Jimmy Butler (MIA)SG,SF
17Kemba Walker (BOS)PG
18Ben Simmons (PHI)PG,SF
19Kyrie Irving (BKN)PG,SG
20Jrue Holiday (NOR)PG,SG
21Rudy Gobert (UTH)C
22Andre Drummond (CLE)PF,C
23John Wall (WAS)PG
24Kyle Lowry (TOR)PG
25Donovan Mitchell (UTH)PG,SG
26Khris Middleton (MIL)SG,SF
27Bradley Beal (WAS)SG
28Kevin Love (CLE)PF,C
29Draymond Green (GSW)PF,C
30LaMarcus Aldridge (SAS)PF,C
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