The 2020 NFL season is finally here, so let’s identify the most intriguing Week 1 pick opportunities for NFL pick’em contests and confidence pools.
Of course, we want to identify the most likely winner of every NFL Week 1 game. But maximizing your edge in a football pool also requires some game theory, because you can only win if you score points that your opponents miss. (Read our 2020 pick’em strategy primer for more on that.)
So you always need to look for underrated teams that justify an educated gamble, and you need to avoid making trendy upset picks that aren’t worth the risk. On that note, here’s what NFL Week 1 has to offer.
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Value Picks For NFL Week 1
Using betting odds, data-driven predictions, and pick popularity data from national football pick’em contests, we’ve analyzed the entire 2020 NFL Week 1 slate and identified the best value picking opportunities available.
Keep in mind that we are not saying you should make all the picks below – the upset picks especially. The best Week 1 picks for your NFL pool depend on strategy factors such as its size, rules, and prize structure, plus situational factors like the number of weeks left in the pool.
(To learn more, check out some of our free articles about strategy for winning football pick’em pools.)
What we are saying is that the teams mentioned in this post offer some of the best opportunities to differentiate your Week 1 picks from your pool opponents, with only modest or no added risk. We also sound the alarm for matchups where picking an upset is probably a terrible idea.
Note: Win odds and estimated national pick popularity data below may change between publication time and kickoff time. If you want to see the latest numbers, our product updates multiple times per day.
Big Favorite At A Reasonable Price
The pick below may not be significantly underrated by the public, but compared to other big favorites this week, it’s a relative bargain in terms of pick popularity. Think twice about picking against it; there are smarter upset pick opportunities elsewhere.
Indianapolis Colts (at Jacksonville)
The public does not appear to be fully aware of the opposite directions in which these two teams have headed. Indianapolis won only one more game than Jacksonville last season, but the Jaguars have been losing talent over the past few years and now look to be in complete tear-down-and-rebuild mode.
Jacksonville has the lowest preseason over/under win total of any NFL team entering 2020, at 4.5 wins. The Colts, on the other hand, have replaced Jacoby Brissett at quarterback with veteran Philip Rivers, and are the current betting market favorite to win the AFC South, just ahead of Tennessee and Houston.
Indianapolis is favored by 7.5 points in this game, with the second-highest Week 1 win odds (77%) of any team according to our projections, behind only Kansas City at 80%. Meanwhile, “only” 78% of public pick’em entries are picking Indianapolis so far, meaning that a healthy 22% of players are picking what would be a significant upset.
To illustrate how a 78% public pick rate compares to similar games, Kansas City (a 9.5-point favorite) is being picked by 97% of the public against Houston, and Baltimore (an 8-point favorite) is drawing 93% of picks against Cleveland. San Francisco, the only other team currently favored by a touchdown, is being picked 91% of the time against Arizona.
So for one of the biggest favorites of the week, Indianapolis isn’t being wildly overrated, which is rare. If you are dead set on picking a major upset this week, don’t make it (relatively) popular Jacksonville.
Value Favorites
2020 NFL Week 1 features several favorites that the public is picking at a lower rate than their chance to win. These types of teams are as close to no brainer picks as you can get in NFL pick’em contests since you can take the team that’s expected to win, yet still “fade the public” (in relative terms, at least) at the same time.
Detroit Lions (vs. Chicago)
The Lions are 3-point favorites at home against Chicago, and our models put Detroit’s win odds at 66%. Only 56% of the public is taking Detroit, though, basically seeing this game as much closer to a toss-up.
That means you get to take the field goal favorite with Detroit, while nearly half the pool is going the opposite direction.
Why might a sliver of the public be underestimating Detroit here? Well, the Lions were 3-12-1 a year ago, to start.
That win-loss record, though, included playing without quarterback Matthew Stafford over the last eight games of the season, when the Lions were terrible on offense and went 0-8. When Stafford was healthy, Detroit was much better on offense, and he’s back and ready to go to start 2020.
Minnesota Vikings (vs. Green Bay)
The Vikings got swept by Green Bay a season ago, playing particularly poorly in a primetime slot in December when the NFC North title was on the line.
With those results likely still fresh in some people’s minds, it’s not a huge surprise that a portion the public is doubting the Vikings, despite betting odds favoring Minnesota by 3 points. Our win odds give Minnesota a 60% chance, yet only 56% of the public is picking them.
That means, again, that you can take both the favorite and the underrated team in this game.
Unpopular Toss-Up Pick
When a matchup is close to a 50/50 proposition, it often makes sense to pick the less popular team. To win an NFL pick’em pool, you’re probably going to need some luck in these “coin flip” games, and when you get it, you want to maximize the upside.
Atlanta (vs. Seattle)
Seattle won a lot of close games last year, going 10-2 in the regular season in games decided by 8 points or less. So the Seahawks weren’t as dominant as their 11-5 record would suggest.
With this game in Atlanta against the Falcons’ passing offense, the point spread currently favors Seattle by only 1.5 points, but 76% of the public is going with the Seahawks. (For additional perspective, this is almost the same percentage of entries that are taking the Colts against Jacksonville, a team favored by over a touchdown.)
With that many players going the other way, taking Atlanta is a clear value choice in one-week pick’em contests especially, where taking any reasonable risk to fade the public makes sense.
Value Gamble
If you’re going take a risk on an underdog, you need to make sure that the potential reward if you get it right – that is, how much your odds to win your pool will increase – is significant. Pick a super trendy longshot, and the joke is really on you.
Be forewarned: The pick below is not appropriate for all pools. We expect it to lose. Still, the risk could make sense, especially for single-week contests or if you only care about weekly prizes in your pool.
Cincinnati Bengals (vs. LA Chargers)
The Bengals had the worst record in the NFL last season, so it’s not a shock they are an opening week underdog.
Cincinnati did draft Heisman winner Joe Burrow at quarterback, though, and have some potential to surprise. They are only a 3-point underdog at home against the Chargers.
Meanwhile, the Chargers have plenty of question marks to start in 2020. For the first time since December 31, 2005, LAC will start a quarterback not named Philip Rivers. (The last quarterback besides Rivers to start for the franchise was Drew Brees!) Tyrod Taylor is expected to start the season, and the offense could look a lot different.
Our projections give Cincinnati a 45% chance of pulling off an upset while betting odds imply a more sanguine 40% chance. So yes, we expect the Bengals to lose. But with only 30% of the public taking Cincinnati, it’s a gamble to consider in exchange for the chance to score points that 70% of your opponents miss.
The Best NFL Week 1 Picks For YOUR Pool
Figuring out the optimal picks for your football pool each week isn’t easy. It takes a lot of data and a lot of math, and there are no simple “golden rules” that give you the best chance to win.
As geeky engineer types, we built technology to solve the problem. Our Football Pick’em Picks product does all the data collection and number crunching necessary to identify the smartest picks for almost any type of pick’em pool.
The result? Over the past six years, our subscribers have reported winning prizes in season-long football pools more than three times as often as one would expect given the size of their pools.
We invite you to try it out for free:
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