This is a story about a lineup position that shouldn’t exist in fantasy football – and the clever (albeit faulty) argument I often hear in defense of keeping it. But before we get there, I need to talk about a movie.
There’s a scene in Jason Reitman’s 2005 satirical comedy, Thank You for Smoking, where Big Tobacco lobbyist Nick Naylor (played by Aaron Eckhart) reveals how he influences public perception through the use of sly debate tactics. In the scene, Naylor invites his son into an argument about which ice cream flavor is best: chocolate or vanilla.
“If I were to say to you, vanilla is the best flavor ice cream,” Naylor begins, “what would you say?”
“No, chocolate is,” replies his son.
“Exactly,” Naylor explains, “but you can’t win that argument. So instead, I’ll ask you, ‘do you think chocolate is the end-all, be-all of ice cream [flavors]?'”
“It’s the best ice cream,” his son answers, “I wouldn’t order any other.”
Naylor continues, “ah, so it’s all chocolate for you, then?”
Naylor’s son appears confused. “Yes,” he offers. “Chocolate is all I need.”
“Well, I need more than chocolate,” Naylor presses. “And for that matter I need more than vanilla. I believe that we need freedom and choices when it comes to our ice cream – and that is the definition of liberty.”
Naylor’s son is now visibly flustered. “But that’s not what we’re talking about!”
Naylor calmly responds, “But that’s what I’m talking about.”
His son searches for a response. “But you didn’t prove that vanilla is the best.”
Naylor smiles.
“I didn’t have to. I proved that you’re wrong. And if you’re wrong . . . I’m right.”
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The Red Herring Fallacy
The tactic that Nick Naylor deployed against his son in the middle of their ice cream argument is known as a red herring. It’s a logical fallacy that is meant to distract the audience from the original argument by offering a sentiment that seems relevant but isn’t really on topic. It doesn’t clarify or sharpen; it bewilders and diverts. It’s a common debate strategy used by politicians and business leaders (of course) but is also found across literature, film, and theater (The Da Vinci Code, Sherlock Holmes, and The Sixth Sense all use red herrings to mislead readers/viewers before their final act reveals).
I tell you all this in part because the ability to identify red herrings is a worthy skill, whether you’re on a debate stage or sitting at your dining room table. But more so, I tell you this because red herrings run rampant in fantasy football arguments. And this brings me back to the topic at hand today: that lineup position I referenced at the start. The one that I said shouldn’t exist in our game.
We should push to eliminate kickers from fantasy football, all together.
The Case Against Kickers
My contention is that the process of selecting kickers runs counter to every other lineup construct in fantasy football. In all other positions, you select players based on a prediction of the effective contribution to their team. But with kickers, it’s the opposite: you select kickers based on their team’s projected inability to finish scoring drives. And for those leagues that still utilize scaled kicker scoring, not only are you rewarded for “accurately predicting” the number of offensive drives that sputter in their opponent’s territory, but the amount of your reward is inversely related to how poorly the offensive drive actually finished (did the drive end at the 33-yard-line, instead of the 11-yard-line? Congratulations, that’s two more points for your kicker!).
What’s more, selecting kickers is baseless and arbitrary. Last year, there were only 2.5 fantasy points-per-game separating the K1 (Harrison Butker) and the K10 (Joey Slye). And contrary to a popular myth, there is no correlation between “elite” fantasy kickers and how good their real NFL teams are. Case in point: this year, two-thirds of the Top-10 fantasy quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers play on NFL teams that have a winning record. But kickers? Five of the Top-10 play for winning teams. Five of the Top-10 play for losing teams. Five of them play for teams currently within the Top-15 in total offense. Five of them don’t. No matter how you slice it, it’s an unforeseeable, proverbial coin flip. And therefore, losing a fantasy game because you ran into a chance 20-point game from your opponent’s kicker is, quite literally, the least credible determination of victory and defeat that this already-unpredictable game can possibly offer.
Beware of the Red Herring
Now, onto the red herring. Because when I propose this argument to fantasy players, I often hear some derivative of the following counter-attack: but we need kickers. Because kickers are part of NFL games – their contributions go a long way in determining the outcome of real football games.
Yes. So what?
This is a statement that diverts from the original argument. It’s true (kickers are important to NFL teams), but inconsequential to the topic at hand. It seems relevant … but it isn’t. Because since when do any of us contend that the constructs of fantasy football should mirror “real” football? Does the NFL reward quarterbacks more points when they rush for a touchdown, instead of pass for one? Do NFL teams receive points when their receivers catch passes? Can NFL teams simultaneously start two running backs, three wide receivers, and a tight end every play?
Sure, kickers are important to NFL teams. But that’s not the point. Fantasy football is not professional football. Fantasy football is a game of calculated predictions. And, yes, there’s unforeseen variables (and luck) involved in every one of them. But the difference between predicting the success of skill players and predicting the success of kickers is commensurate with the difference between betting on a hand of poker and a spin at the roulette wheel. The odds may seem equal to the untrained eye – but they absolutely are not.
Next time you get drawn into a debate with your fellow league mates, whether it’s about the validity of kickers or something entirely different, don’t allow them to push you off-topic. Don’t fall for misdirection or distraction.
The brilliance of red herrings is in their peripherality. They turn your logic against you by convincing you that something you agree with is correlated with something you don’t.
Red herrings are not works of fiction – but as a result, represent something more dangerous.
Because worse than fiction is an unrelated fact cloaked in false relevance.
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David Giardino is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from David, check out his archive and follow him @davidgiardino.
