Last week was a fun tournament, and I hope you followed our advice and made some money. Eight of our 10 recommendations made the cut, with Patrick Reed winning the event at low ownership. Ryan Palmer was T2, while Will Zalatoris and Jon Rahm earned top-10 finishes. Sam Burns, Rory McIlroy, and Max Homa all had top-20 finishes. Unfortunately, I was way too heavy on Jason Day and Doc Redman in some key lineups, or else it would have been a print fest. Let’s see if we keep this “recent form” going this week at the Waste Management Phoenix Open.

FanDuel has seven golfers priced at or above $11,000 this week. DFS players have a salary cap of $60,000 to select six golfers for an average roster spot of $10,000. Jon Rahm ($12,000) is the only golfer in the 12K range. Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy are the next closest at $11,800 and $11,700, respectively. Xander Schauffele ($11,600) and Webb Simpson ($11,300) round out FanDuel’s top-five highest priced golfers.

Work at having a solid process week in and week out as opposed to getting bogged down by recency bias or the ups-and-downs of the weekly golf grind. The best golfers will perform at a high level throughout the course of a season. However, from week-to-week, a major variance can occur. Any professional golfer is capable of winning. Likewise, even great players can miss the cut. For instance, Brooks Koepka, Harris English, and Jason Day all missed the cut last week. Additionally, after making 17 straight cuts at that event, Charles Howell also fell victim to an “MC.”

Use all the information available to you to make the best decision possible for your lineup. Whether you win or lose, golf is one of the most entertaining fantasy sports to follow because you get four days of action. Good luck and, most importantly, have fun!

Find out which stats matter the most for PGA DFS

Tournament Notes

• After two straight weeks of playing on different courses, we’ll only get one course this week.
• The Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale near Phoenix has hosted the event since 1987. TPC Scottsdale is a par 71, measuring 7,266 yards.
• There are only 132 players scheduled to tee it up. The top-65 and ties will make the cut and advance to the weekend.
• For the last five years, the average winning score has been 16-under par, with the cut line hovering around even par.
• Seven past winners are scheduled to play this week, including Webb Simpson (2020), Rickie Fowler (2019), Gary Woodland (2018), Hideki Matsuyama (2017, 2016), Brooks Koepka (2015), Kevin Stadler (2014), Kyle Stanley (2012), Hunter Mahan (2010), J.B. Holmes (2008, 2006), and Aaron Baddeley (2007).
• A playoff had decided four of the previous five Waste Management Phoenix Opens, including last year when Webb Simpson defeated Tony Finau.
• Water is in play on six of the final nine holes.
• All three Par 5s are reachable in two.
• The Bermuda greens tend to be firm, slightly larger, and faster than the Tour average.
• The rough is not very penal (remember, it’s the desert), and this course typically sports the longest average drive on Tour.
• A welcome sight during this pandemic will be some fans on the golf course. 5,000 spectators will be allowed on the grounds each day. That is a far cry from the 200,000 crazies that the event typically sees, but it’s a start.

Course Fit & Key Statistics

Recent Form
The golfers that rate out the best in my customized recent form model (in ranked order) are Xander Schauffele, Ryan Palmer, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Harris English, Justin Thomas, Chris Kirk, Patton Kizzire, Daniel Berger, and Corey Conners. Rory McIlroy leads the field with 24 straight PGA Tour events in which he’s played the weekend. Xander Schauffele is close behind with a streak of 20. Jon Rahm (15), Justin Thomas (13), Webb Simpson (12), Daniel Berger (11), and Zach Johnson (10) are the only other golfers with double-digit PGA cut streaks.

Course History
I tend to place emphasis on baseline talent and recent form, but there is a lot to be said for golfers that enjoy playing at certain courses. Some courses just line up better for some golfers. Comfortability with the way a golf course plays can give a golfer confidence going into the week. The ten golfers that rate out the best in my course history model include Rickie Fowler, Hideki Matsuyama, Webb Simpson, Matt Kuchar, Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Byeong Hun An, Bubba Watson, Xander Schauffele, and Gary Woodland.

Overall Statistics
My customized overall stat model measures all stats (driving, approach, short game, putting, etc…) from both a short-and-long-form standpoint. In terms of stats, the best golfers for my customized model this week (in ranked order) are Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Harris English, Webb Simpson, Russell Henley Daniel Berger, Ryan Palmer, Sungjae Im, and Rory McIlroy.

Official World Golf Ranking
All the statistics and course history are good to know, but sports (particularly DFS golf) often come down to betting on talent and playing the best overall players. Sure, salary is involved, but fitting as many of the world’s best golfers in your lineups increases your chances for success. According to the OWGR, the best ten golfers in this field (in ranked order) are Jon Rahm (No. 2), Justin Thomas (No. 3), Xander Schauffele (No. 4), Rory McIlroy (No. 6), Webb Simpson (No. 9), Brooks Koepka (No. 13), Daniel Berger (No. 14), Sungjae Im (No. 17), Matthew Wolff (No. 18), and Harris English (No. 19).

Favorite $11,000+ Plays

Jon Rahm ($12,000)
His T7 last week gave him his seventh top-10 finish in his last 13 starts. This includes two wins and a runner-up performance. Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, and Xander Schauffele are all fine options, but I truly believe that Rahm plays great from start to finish and wins the tournament.

Webb Simpson ($11,300)
The defending champion will most likely find his way onto the Sunday afternoon leadership as he is one of the most consistent golfers on the PGA Tour. Not only did he come from behind to beat Tony Finau in a playoff last year, but he was runner-up in 2016. He has started the calendar year off right with a T17 at the Tournament of Champions and followed it up the next week with a T4 at the Sony.

Favorite $10,000 Plays

Sungjae Im ($10,800)
He is close to breaking through. A bad round or a couple of bad holes have doomed him the last few weeks. He started on a tear on Sunday, vaulting up to second on the leaderboard before faltering. Remember that it wasn’t too long ago that he was runner-up at the Masters and finished T5 at the Tournament of Champions. He also finished T7 here in 2019. His upside is tremendous, and if he is low owned this week, I will have plenty of him in GPPs.

Wil Zalatoris ($10,600)
Of course, I am going back to my guy Willy Z after his T7 last week. Unfortunately, we won’t get him at low ownership this week, I am afraid. But that won’t deter me. I don’t think his ownership will get too out of control because he is surrounded by course horses Rickie Fowler and Bubba Watson. His T7 last week should not have been a surprise as he picked up where he left off during the 2020 calendar year, in which he had 16 top-20 finishes in only 21 starts. An amazing 13 of those resulted in top-10 finishes, as well. Overall, in his last seven PGA events, he has finished in the top-10 four times!

Ryan Palmer ($10,100)
Don’t overthink this one. He has the 10th best Vegas odds but is only the 16th highest-priced golfer. Essentially, the 24th ranked golfer in the world is a free square at the average FD roster price. Over on DK, he is priced nearly $1,000 above the average roster spot. He has three top-five finishes in his last four events. Anything can happen in golf, but he will be my highest-owned golfer this week. He is a lock-in cash or single-entry, and I will look to differentiate elsewhere in GPPs. I also will consider going back to Harris English ($10,900) and Gary Woodland ($10,000) in this 10K range.

Favorite $9,000 Plays

Corey Conners ($9,500)
He has made eight straight cuts on the PGA Tour, including three top-10 finishes. He has a lousy short game but is an elite ball-striker. He can score birdies in bunches. He ranks fourth in total strokes gained and fifth in fantasy scoring in the last 24 rounds in this field.

Byeong Hun An ($9,400)
He is an extremely bad putter, but he is an elite tee-to-green golfer. The last six times he has gained just one stroke putting, he has finished in the top-25 each time, including three top-five finishes. In other words, if he can just be meh on the greens, he can contend. He seems to like it here with four straight top-25 finishes, including a T9 last year and sixth-place in 2017. He is not a safe pick but has tremendous upside. Other 9K golfers I’ll be considering are Sam Burns ($9,700), Russell Henley ($9,600), Carlos Ortiz ($9,600), Max Homa ($9,600), and Brendon Todd ($9,200).

Favorite $8,000 Plays

Chris Kirk ($8,900)
Kirk has made the cut in 11 of his last 14 professional starts, including a win on the Korn Ferry Tour. So far this calendar year, he has a T16 at the American Express and a runner-up at the Sony. He has made the cut here in four of the last five years, including a T11 in 2018. In the last 24 rounds played, he is 21st in total strokes gained but 11th in fantasy scoring. He has a solid all-around game but is also capable of scoring in bunches.

Patton Kizzire ($8,800)
He lost strokes putting for only the second time in his last 11 starts but still made the cut. Overall he has made the cut in 10 of his last 11 starts, including a T7 at the Sony and a T10 at the RSM. In the last 24 rounds played, he ranks seventh in the field in total strokes gained and fantasy scoring. The flat stick is elite, and so if he can have a halfway decent tee-to-green week, he can make some noise. He has made the cut here in four of his last five starts. Other 8K golfers I will be looking at in my MME builds are Henrik Norland ($8,900), Rory Sabbatini ($8,900), Wyndham Clark ($8,700), Adam Hadwin ($8,600), Martin Laird ($8,400), Kyle Stanley ($8,400), Chez Reavie ($8,300), and Doc Redman ($8,200).

Favorite $7,000 Plays

Aaron Wise ($7,700)
I don’t like playing 7K guys, but I am intrigued by Wise. He is certainly not safe as he has missed the cut in half of his last 10 starts. However, in the other half of his starts in which he’s made the cut, he has finished 2 – T11 – T26 – T17 – 8. Too bad this isn’t a no-cut event. In other words, when he makes the cut, he smashes value. He has the 28th best Vegas odds but is only the 84th highest-priced golfer on FD, so we are getting some nice value with him. Other 7K golfers I may consider for my MME lineups are Harold Varner ($7,900), Bo Hoag ($7,900), Sam Ryder ($7,800), Will Gordon ($7,700), Mark Hubbard ($7,600), Danny Lee ($7,400), and Nate Lashley ($7,100).

Check out the FREE betting guide for the Waste Management Phoenix Open at BettingPros

Jamy Bechler is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can send him questions and follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and a leadership consultant, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommended in this article.