The PGA Tour stays in Florida for the third straight week, and the golfers are treated to another beautiful but deadly course. The Jack Nicklaus-designed PGA National plays host to the Honda Classic this week. Expect a great deal of carnage and volatility, just like we saw last week at the PLAYERS Championship. Don’t be afraid to fade the chalk and get a little uncomfortable with your lineup construction this week.

FanDuel has six golfers priced at or above $11,000 this week. DFS players have a salary cap of $60,000 to select six golfers for an average roster spot of $10,000. Daniel Berger ($12,000) is the only golfer in the 12K range. Sungjae Im and Lee Westwood are the next highest-priced golfers at $11,800 and $11,500, respectively. Joaquin Niemann ($11,300) and Adam Scott ($11,200) round out FanDuel’s top-five highest-priced golfers.

Work at having a solid process week in and week out instead of getting bogged down by recency bias or the ups-and-downs of the weekly golf grind. The best golfers will perform at a high level throughout the season. However, from week-to-week, a major variance can occur. Any professional golfer is capable of winning. Likewise, even great players can miss the cut. A great example of this was last week when the top three highest-owned golfers missed the cut. Seven of the top-10 highest-owned golfers failed to make it to the weekend last week.

Use all the information available to you to make the best decision possible for your lineup. Whether you win or lose, golf is one of the most entertaining fantasy sports to follow because you get four days of action. Good luck and, most importantly, have fun!

Find out which stats matter the most for PGA DFS

Tournament Notes

• The Honda Classic is played on the Champion Course at PGA National Resort & Spa in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. It is a Par 70 course measuring 7,140 yards. It was the third most-difficult PGA course last year after Bay Hill and Muirfield Village.
• The event was established in 1972, but it has only been played at the PGA National Golf Club’s Champion Course since 2007.
• This is a 144-player field with the top-65 (and ties) making the cut and playing the weekend.
• Other than being a course a lot of golfers try to avoid, the course is primarily known for the “Bear Trap,” which consists of holes 15, 16, and 17. This tough stretch of holes is named after Jack Nicklaus, who redesigned the course back in 1990. All three holes typically play OVER par.
• The Bermuda greens are about the average tour size and measure around 11.5 on the stimpmeter.
• The fairways are very narrow, and the rough is thick. The driving distance for this event is typically about 10 yards shorter than the Tour average. Fairways are also hit less than normal, but it’s crucial to keep your ball out of the rough.
• Previous Honda Classic winners (from PGA National) scheduled to tee it up this week include Sungjae Im (2020), Keith Mitchell (2019), Rickie Fowler (2017), Adam Scott (2016), Padraig Harrington (2015 & 2005), Russell Henley (2014), Michael Thompson (2013), Rory Sabbatini (2011), and Camilo Villegas (2010).
• Brian Harman set the course record with a 61 in the second round of the 2012 event.
• The cut last year was 3-OVER par. The five years prior, the cut was +2, +5, Even, +3, and +4.
• The average winning score for the last five years is 8-under par. Only two of the last 10 years the winning score been in the double digits.
• This event typically sees a fair share of gusty winds, so you’ll want to monitor the weather reports.
• There are four Par 3 holes (which all typically play OVER par), two Par 5s (which are NOT usually reachable in two), and 12 Par 4 holes. Last year, only five holes had an average score of below par (#’s 1, 3, 8, 13, and 18).
• Water is a threat on 15 of the 18 holes, and there are nearly 80 bunkers on the course (with half of them being situated in the fairway).
• This is not typically a “get right” course. If a golfer is not playing well, this is not the course to try and find their game again.

Course Fit & Key Statistics

Overall Statistics
My customized overall stat model measures all key stats (driving, approach, short game, putting, etc…) from both a short-and-long-form standpoint. From a stats perspective, this week’s best golfers (in ranked order) are Daniel Berger, Doug Ghim, Cameron Tringale, Jim Furyk, Joaquin Niemann, Talor Gooch, Chris Kirk, Russell Henley, Kevin Streelman, and Cameron Davis.

Recent Form
The golfers that rate out the best in my customized recent form model (in ranked order) are Talor Gooch, Sungjae Im, Daniel Berger, Lee Westwood, Joaquin Niemann, Doug Ghim, Brandon Wu, Cameron Percy, Chris Kirk, and Brendan Steel. Among the golfers in this week’s field, Joaquin Niemann and Zach Johnson have the longest streak of made cuts on the PGA Tour with 13 each. Adam Scott and Patton Kizzire are next with 12 each. Sungjae Im (8) and Brendan Steele (7) are the only other golfers with at least five straight-made PGA cuts.

Saving Par
This event regularly produces low winning scores, and shooting even par should safely advance a golfer to the weekend, possibly leading to a top-10 finish. I usually focus on golfers that can score, but this week, extra emphasis will be on those guys that can avoid red numbers on the scorecard. In my customized model for bogey avoidance and scrambling, the best 10 golfers at saving par are Steve Stricker, Zach Johnson, Russell Henley, Russell Knox, Lee Westwood, Matt Wallace, Daniel Berger, Adam Long, Jim Furyk, and Sungjae Im.

Course History
I tend to emphasize baseline talent and recent form, but there is a lot to be said for golfers that enjoy playing at certain courses. Some courses just line up better for some golfers. Comfortability with the way a golf course plays can give a golfer confidence going into the week. The ten golfers that rate out the best in my course history model include Rickie Fowler, Adam Scott, Byeong Hun An, Lucas Glover, Russell Henley, Jason Dufner, Luke List, Russell Henley, Wyndham Clark, and Sungjae Im.

Official World Golf Ranking
All the statistics and course history are good to know, but sports (particularly DFS golf) often come down to betting on talent and playing the best overall players. Sure, salary is involved, but fitting as many of the world’s best golfers in your lineups increases your chances for success. According to the OWGR, the best ten golfers in this field (in ranked order) are Daniel Berger (No. 15), Sungjae Im (No. 18), Lee Westwood (No. 19), Adam Scott (No. 25), Joaquin Niemann (No. 29), Shane Lowry (No. 40), Mackenzie Hughes (No. 53), Matt Wallace (No. 55), Kevin Streelman (No. 59), and Russell Henley (No. 60).

Favorite $10,000+ Plays

Lee Westwood ($11,500)
I might be a week late on Westwood, but there is no reason he can’t break through for a win this week. He has finished runner-up each of the last two weeks and has moved up to 19th in the world golf rankings. He has made the cut all eight times he has played the Honda, including four top-10 finishes. He was T4 last year. He is fifth in my bogey avoidance model, which is probably why he has been good here at Honda and the last two weeks at difficult Florida courses.

Talor Gooch ($10,800)
It feels crazy looking at Gooch at this price tag, but the field is weak, and he’s been playing well. In the last 24 rounds, he is sixth in this field in both total strokes gained and fantasy scoring. He is also sixth in my bogey avoidance model. He is a good all-around golfer. He has made five of his last six cuts, including a T5 last week at the PLAYERS and a T12 at the Genesis. Last fall, he was also T4 at the Houston Open in a week field and T5 in a tough field at the CJ Cup. His last two trips to PGA National have resulted in T38 and T20 finishes.

Brendan Steele ($10,400)
He has made all seven of his cuts this calendar year, starting with his T4 at the Sony. He was T18 two weeks ago at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. In the last 24 rounds, he ranks ninth in total strokes gained in this field. He is a very good ball-striker that can get hot with the putter. He was T4 here last year and T14 in both 2-17 and 2016.

Cameron Tringale ($10,300)
I will be going back to Tringale even after he missed the cut at the PLAYERS. Lots of elite golfers missed the cut, so I am not going to hold that against him. His putter abandoned him last week, which was unusual. His ball-striking was still good, which gives me high hopes for this week. He had made eight straight cuts going into last week. During that streak, he had four top-20 finishes. He has finished T27 and T36 the last two years here.

Other 10K+ golfers I will be considering this week are Daniel Berger ($12,000), Sungjae Im ($11,800), Joaquin Niemann ($11,300), Chris Kirk ($10,500), and Cameron Davis ($10,000).

Favorite $9,000 Plays

Doug Ghim ($9,800)
He ranks second in my overall stat model. In the last 24 rounds, he is 10th in total strokes gained and 10th in fantasy scoring. He has been on the first page of the leaderboard each of the last two weeks in Florida. It was not too long ago that he was T5 at the American Express. He has six top-25 finishes so far during the 2020-21 PGA season.

Byeong Hun An ($9,600)
Even though he had an 11 on the 17th hole last Thursday, I like him for a bounce-back (he birdied that hole on Friday). He has good course history here with a T4 last year and a T5 in 2018. He has been inconsistent lately but not bad (other than that terrible 17th at Sawgrass). It wasn’t too long ago that he had a T8 at the American Express. An is not a safe play this week, but I like him for the upside.

Brandon Wu ($9,300)
He won the Korn Ferry Tour Championship last year and was number one on that Tour in bogey avoidance, which will come in quite handy this week. He was also sixth in ball-striking on the KFT. He has the game for PGA National. The question is whether he is ready for it. He missed the cut at the U.S. Open and the Workday Charity Open last year (both difficult courses). However, he just finished T7 in Puerto Rico. That is not a difficult course, but it was his first PGA Tour start of the season.

Other 9K golfers I will be considering are Dylan Frittelli ($9,900), Wyndham Clark ($9,700), Mackenzie Hughes ($9,400), Aaron Wise ($9,300), Kevin Streelman ($9,200), Jhonattan Vegas ($9,200), Michael Thompson ($9,100), and Matt Jones ($9,100).

Favorite $8,000 Plays

Zach Johnson ($8,800)
He has made 13 PGA cuts in a row, tied with Joaquin Niemann for the most in the field. Overall, only Jon Rahm (19) has more consecutive made cuts on the PGA Tour has more on the PGA Tour than Niemann or ZJ. During his streak of 13 made cuts, ZJ has three top-10 finishes. He has also made the cut here at the Honda each of the last three years.

Patton Kizzire ($8,700)
He has a current streak of 12 straight PGA made cuts, which includes three top-15 finishes. In the last 24 rounds played, he ranks 17th in total strokes gained in this field.

Jim Furyk ($8,300)
He has made nine straight professional cuts (three on the PGA Tour and six on the Champions Tour). He was T26 at the Genesis and T21 at Pebble Beach. He ranks fourth in my overall stat model. He is typically good at avoiding big numbers, hits his iron great, and seems to never miss the fairway. He has five top-10 finishes here through the years, including a T9 in 2019. In the last 24 rounds on difficult courses, he ranks third in total strokes gained in this field.

Other 8K golfers I will be considering are Harold Varner ($8,900), James Hahn ($8,700), Will Gordon ($8,600), Nate Lashley ($8,200), John Huh ($8,300), Charl Schwartzel ($8,200), and Steve Stricker ($8,000).

Favorite $7,000 Plays

I do not plan on playing any golfers in the 7K range my main lineups. If I sprinkle some into my MME builds, I may consider Stewart Cink ($7,800), Scott Brown ($7,800), Rob Oppenheim ($7,500), Brice Garnett ($7,400), and Scott Harrington ($7,000).

Check out the FREE betting guide for The Honda Classic at BettingPros

Jamy Bechler is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and a leadership consultant, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommended in this article.