Week 1 culminates with the injury-ravaged Ravens heading to Las Vegas to face the Raiders in their new stadium in front of fans for the first time. The game has an eye-catching over/under and modest spread, so there could be fireworks closing the book on the season’s opening week.
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Game: Baltimore Ravens at Las Vegas Raiders
Ravens Analysis: The end of the preseason was devastating to the Ravens. The injury bug ravaged their backfield, leaving Ty'Son Williams as the last man standing. You might be asking, who? Well, Williams was an undrafted free agent. However, he wasn't without believers in his talent. Matt Waldman offered a fantastic breakdown of his college work. Anyway, Williams' competition is a group of dusty veterans such as Le'Veon Bell, Devonta Freeman, and Latavius Murray -- the last of which might not actually be toast. They also inked Trenton Cannon to a deal. However, all are battling with each other while simultaneously catching up to speed with Baltimore's offense.
Week 1 culminates with the injury-ravaged Ravens heading to Las Vegas to face the Raiders in their new stadium in front of fans for the first time. The game has an eye-catching over/under and modest spread, so there could be fireworks closing the book on the season’s opening week.
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Game: Baltimore Ravens at Las Vegas Raiders
Ravens Analysis: The end of the preseason was devastating to the Ravens. The injury bug ravaged their backfield, leaving Ty'Son Williams as the last man standing. You might be asking, who? Well, Williams was an undrafted free agent. However, he wasn't without believers in his talent. Matt Waldman offered a fantastic breakdown of his college work. Anyway, Williams' competition is a group of dusty veterans such as Le'Veon Bell, Devonta Freeman, and Latavius Murray -- the last of which might not actually be toast. They also inked Trenton Cannon to a deal. However, all are battling with each other while simultaneously catching up to speed with Baltimore's offense.
Williams looks like the clear-cut leader of the backfield for the opener, typically a fantasy-friendly role. However, this is an atypically especially favorable situation, as backs have thrived in this rushing attack spearheaded by Lamar Jackson. It's also the most run-heavy offense. According to Sharp Football Stats, the Ravens 55% of the time when the scoring margin ranged from trailing by seven to leading by seven. That mark was 12% above the league average and four percent higher than the second-highest mark.
Obviously, Jackson accounts for a sizable percentage of the runs. To that point, according to Stathead, his 73.7 rushing yards per game are the 10th most since 2019. However, both Jackson and Williams should benefit from Las Vegas's issues with explosive runs, as they tied for the seventh-highest average explosive run rate allowed (13%).
Beyond the running, Jackson also obviously accounts for scoring as a passer. The 2019 NFL MVP has thrown for 62 touchdown passes the last two seasons. He's the runaway top option on the single-game slate.
Some of his pass-catching options are listed in the table above. All have merit for usage. However, tight end Mark Andrews is my favorite selection. He's highly efficient, ranking sixth out of 32 tight ends targeted at least 120 times since 2018 with 8.92 yards per target (Y/Tgt). Also, according to Pro Football Focus, out of 43 tight ends targeted at least 30 times last year, he ranked fifth with 2.00 yards per route run (Y/RR). Finally, he's recorded a target share of 22.8% and 21.2% in successive seasons, per Sports Info Solutions. He's efficient and sees a steady diet of targets -- relatively speaking.
Raiders Analysis: It's fitting to pivot from discussing Andrews to touting Darren Waller. Las Vegas's tight end ranks directly in front of him in fifth for yards per target (9.01 Y/Tgt) among tight ends targeted at least 120 times since 2018. He also ranked two spots ahead of him at third with 2.28 yards per route run. Further, he ranked third among all players with a jaw-dropping target share of 27.7%. Waller brilliantly blends volume and efficiency, easily making him the top option from the host Raiders.
The man slinging him the rock, Derek Carr, is a stellar option as well. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Carr ranked 13th among qualified quarterbacks with 256.4 passing yards per game. In addition, he ranked 11th with 27 touchdown passes. One area he excelled was on the deep ball. According to Pro Football Focus, out of 41 quarterbacks with a minimum of 15 deep passes, his passing grade was second-highest, trailing only 2020 NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers's grade.
Unfortunately, his top deep-ball target, Nelson Agholor, is no longer on the team. Could second-year speedster Henry Ruggs III fill that vacated role? Maybe. That's essentially the case for rostering him, and I suspect gamers will flock to him on this single-game slate. Sadly, I have some cold water to toss on the optimism. The Ravens yielded an NFL-low six percent average explosive pass rate last year. Yes, Ruggs could beat the odds and deliver a big reception. Further, Jon Gruden could get creative and use him in a more well-rounded capacity than we saw in his rookie campaign.
Before continuing the pass-catcher discussion, allow me to acknowledge Josh Jacobs's absence from the table. He's a game-script dependent back on an underdog and Kenyan Drake profiles as the pass-catching option. I'm bearish on the Raiders' outlook tonight. Thus, I think this game could get away from them, making receiving-back Drake the more enticing option. Though, I'd rather avoid the situation altogether.
Resuming the pass-catcher discussion, Bryan Edwards wears the crown for the king of offseason hyperbole.
Absurdity aside, Edwards is a legitimate second-year breakout candidate. He's ticketed for starting duties at receiver. Also, his average depth of target of 8.9 yards downfield as a rookie should play better against the Ravens than Ruggs's 17.7 yards given their excellence limiting explosive passes.
The final player I want to call your attention to is a sneaky contrarian play, Foster Moreau. The Raiders utilized two or more tight ends on an astonishing 41% of their plays in 2020. Even when they trailed by large margins, they didn't flood the field with wideouts. So, if they find themselves in a hole early, don't count Moreau out. Further, he's an intriguing player from a measurables perspective. Check out his workout metrics and impressive percentile ranks on his Player Profiler page. He was rarely utilized last year, with Gruden comically playing Jason Witten. The retired Witten leaves 17 targets behind. Even if you tack those onto Moreau's nine targets, you're left with an unexciting 26. However, entering his third year, it's not out of the question that Moreau makes strides in a passing attack lacking established talent behind Waller.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
