The NFL season is upon us. The first game is in the books, with the Buccaneers topping the Cowboys in the Thursday Night Football opener. Now, we’re heading into the first main Sunday slate. Below, I break down every game.
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Week 1 Matchups
Game: Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills
Steelers Analysis: Pittsburgh has an unexciting implied total of 21.25 points. They have a new offensive coordinator, as Matt Canada replaces Randy Fichtner. The change could provide a jolt of life to the offense. Yet, I'm skeptical of an age-39 resurgence from Ben Roethlisberger.
Of course, the Steelers aren't bereft of daily fantasy options, though. The club showed their hand hoping to move the needle on the ground this year, using their first-round pick on Najee Harris. He has bell-cow potential and a middle-of-the-road matchup. Football Outsiders ranked the Bills 17th in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Volume's king, and even if the Steelers fall behind like the game's spread suggests they will, Harris can rack up points through the air, thanks to his pass-catching chops.
A probable negative game script for the Steelers would force them to air it out, making Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and second-round pick Pat Freiermuth appealing. Johnson led the club in targets (144) and receiving yards per game (61.5) last year.
Claypool's a big-bodied vertical threat, sporting an average depth of target of 13.0 yards downfield as a rookie, per Sports Info Solutions. Unfortunately for him, according to Sharp Football Stats, the Bills tied for the second-lowest explosive pass rate allowed. Still, he's a mismatch and capable of winning against even pristine coverage.
Freiermuth is arguably the most attractive option from the Steelers, though. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Bills permitted the most receptions (92) and second-most receiving yards (993) to the position last season. Priced at the minimum salary on DraftKings and $400 above the minimum on FanDuel, I can look past the steep learning curve for rookie tight ends to justify firing some GPP bullets on him as a pivot off, presumably more popular options.
Bills Analysis: The Steelers ranked first in overall defense DVOA last year. Unfortunately for them, it's tough to repeat. You have to go back to the 2015-2016 Broncos. Further, the game's catered to offense, so it shouldn't be surprising the Bills have a gaudy implied total of 27.5, despite a relatively tough matchup. Of course, why shouldn't the Bills be expected to light up the scoreboard after ranking second in scoring offense, averaging 31.3 points per game? When these teams met in Pittsburgh last year, the Bills scored a respectable 20 points offensive -- their defense also scored a touchdown, hence 26 points (they failed the PAT).
Buffalo's offense runs through dual-threat quarterback and 2020 NFL MVP runner-up Josh Allen. Head coach Sean McDermott's and offensive coordinator Brian Daboll's trust in Allen appeared to grow as his breakout 2020 campaign wore on. That's exemplified by passing at the second-highest rate (68%, a whopping 11% higher than the average of 57%) with a scoring margin ranging from trailing by seven to leading by seven from Week 9 through Week 17. As a result, Allen's one of the top quarterback options this week.
His top stacking partner or excellent standalone option is last year's receptions leader with 127, Stefon Diggs. The stud wideout also averaged 95.9 receiving yards per game and led the league in targets (166). The scary thing is, he produced these marks in an unusual pandemic-impacted offseason.
Cole Beasley joined Diggs in the top-25 in receiving yards per game, ranking 25th with 64.5. The shifty slot wideout also ranked 21st in receptions (82). Offseason free-agent signee Emmanuel Sanders appears ticketed for the No. 3 receiver job, so consider him as well.
Also, don't dismiss second-year receiver, Gabriel Davis. Unlike most No. 4 receivers, Davis should see the field plenty. According to Sharp Football Stats, Buffalo's 15% 10-personnel usage was second-highest to Arizona's 20% rate. So he should also soak up some snaps spelling the trio ahead of him. Still, he's a GPP-only option.
Finally, the Bills are 6.5-point home favorites, and their defense is cheap. Therefore, they're a viable option in all game types.
Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons
- Spread: ATL -3.0 Points
- Over/Under: 48.0 Points
Eagles Analysis: Jalen Hurts is a terror on the ground. In the three games he started and finished, he rumbled for 238 rushing yards and one touchdown. He added two more rushing scores in the season finale that he was removed early from in an obvious tank job. Hurst is flawed as a passer, as evidenced by Pro Football Focus ranking him 37th out of 41 passers with at least 150 pass attempts in their pass grade. Still, from a fantasy perspective, he delivered the goods through the air in two of his starts, passing for 338 yards and three scores in Week 14 and 342 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions in Week 16.
The Eagles traded a third-round pick to move up from the 12th pick to the 10th selection to snag DeVonta Smith fresh off of a Heisman Trophy and Fred Biletnikoff Award campaign for the Alabama Crimson Tide. He steps in and immediately appears to be the top receiver on the club.
However, while I'm not crazy about using Zach Ertz, he's at least in the discussion for usage after leading the team with 24 targets on Hurts' pass attempts last year. Speedy sophomore receiver Quez Watkins is the only other player from the Eagles I'm considering. According to Player Profiler, he demonstrated his jets by running a 4.35-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Draft Combine, putting him in the 97th percentile. Watkins also showcased his afterburners in the preseason, turning a screen into a 70-plus-yard touchdown reception.
Falcons Analysis: The Falcons have a nifty implied total of 25.5 points as home favorites. As the quarterback attached to a fantasy-friendly implied total, Matt Ryan's a defensible play at quarterback.
Calvin Ridley's the crown jewel of the Falcons, though. According to the 4for4 Football Market Share Splits App, Ridley commanded a 31.0% target share, parlaying the gaudy usage into 7.1 receptions, 109.3 receiving yards, and 0.43 receiving touchdowns per game in the seven games Julio Jones missed last year. So hop on the rocket ship, and enjoy him balling out.
Mike Davis was kept in bubble wrap in the preseason. He excelled, filling in for Christian McCaffrey much of last year, showing an uncanny ability to avoid tackles. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Davis led qualified runners with 7.9 attempts per broken tackle. Further, he's a capable pass-catcher, averaging 3.9 receptions and 24.9 receiving yards per game. If the game script doesn't go according to the listed odds, Davis will be fine. However, if it does go to plan, he could be fed the rock to salt away the game.
Kyle Pitts is a unicorn. He's a tight end by listing on the depth chart. However, he's more like a jumbo wideout who prospect evaluators salivated over during NFL Draft season. He'll help take the sting out of Jones's departure to the Titans. While the transition can be difficult to the NFL for rookie tight ends since they're often tasked with blocking and receiving, I find it hard to believe the Falcons made him the highest-selected tight end ever to fail to utilize him heavily. Further, if you want an example of how unfair Pitts is, check out the following highlight from the preseason.
Finally, while I'm disinterested in using the Falcons DST on FanDuel, they're intriguing at the minimum salary on DraftKings as a home favorite. If the Falcons jump out to a lead, they'll have a chance to rack up some sacks and turnovers. Hurts' 8.1% sack rate would have ranked fifth-highest if he was a qualified quarterback. Also, Pro Football Focus credited him with the fifth-highest percentage of turnover-worthy plays (4.6%) among quarterbacks with at least 150 pass attempts.
Game: San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions
- Spread: SF -7.5 Points
- Over/Under: 45.0 Points
49ers Analysis: The 49ers are the biggest favorites on the main slate, despite being on the road. They tinkered with a two-quarterback system in the dress-rehearsal preseason finale, kneecapping the value of both quarterbacks if Trey Lance is healthy enough to suit up.
Regardless of who's under center, George Kittle's the best fantasy option in the passing attack. According to StatHead, among tight ends targeted at least 100 times since 2018, Kittle's 10.01 yards per target are the highest mark at the position. However, the presence of Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel creates more competition for targets than he's accustomed to, lowering his floor. Thus, he's a better GPP option than a cash game pick. Speaking of Aiyuk and Samuel, I'm not crazy about either, given the alternatives in more pass-happy attacks. However, they should be lower rostered relative to others, and they're tied to a juicy implied total of 26.25. In addition, the Lions tied for the highest explosive pass rate allowed (11%), so they have cases for GPP consideration -- and Kittle's outlook is enhanced, too.
The sizable spread and favorable matchup make San Francisco's incumbent starting running back, Raheem Mostert, a stellar selection in all game types. Football Outsiders ranked the Lions 27th in run defense DVOA. Further, they coughed up the second-most DraftKings points per game and most FanDuel points per game to running backs last year, per Pro-Football-Reference. The explosive back averaged 5.0 yards per rush attempt last year, and out of 47 backs with at least 100 carries, he ranked 12th in breakaway run percentage (31.7%) per Pro Football Focus. He's a home-run carry waiting to happen.
Lions Analysis: The Lions have a grotesque implied total of 18.75 points. They're unlikely to be a source of fantasy goodies in the opener. Regardless, the high likelihood of a negative game script could result in target volume for pass-catching second-year back D'Andre Swift, tight end T.J. Hockenson, and rookie slot wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown. Because San Francisco did a stellar job limiting deep passes, I'm not interested in field-stretcher Tyrell Williams. I advise limiting exposure to the Lions, and I wouldn't fault gamers for avoiding them entirely.
Game: Los Angeles Chargers at Washington Football Team
- Spread: SF LAC -1.0 Points
- Over/Under: 44.5 Points
Chargers Analysis: The Chargers make a trip to the Eastern timezone for a 1:00 PM ET game against a stingy defense. It's not an optimal fantasy layout, and I'm largely avoiding them. However, Austin Ekeler's pass-catching chops make him a defensible, contrarian selection at FanDuel's half-point PPR and DraftKings's full-point PPR platforms. Speaking to Ekeler's excellence as a receiver, out of 47 backs targeted at least 25 times, he ranked fifth in yards per route run (1.71 Y/RR). He also played 19.3% of his snaps lined up in the slot or out wide, so he's not just a back used as a receiver out of the backfield. Of course, his playing status needs to be monitored, as he was a limited practice participant on Wednesday due to a hamstring issue. However, barring a setback, it looks like he'll play.
Keenan Allen has a formidable challenge this week, too. Nonetheless, volume trumps matchup and Allen sees target volume in spades. According to Sports Info Solutions, Allen's 26.7% target share was the fourth-highest mark last year. Finally, regarding the cases for using Ekeler and Allen, they could get a pace boost facing Washington. The Football Team tied for the fifth-highest offensive pace when the scoring margin ranged from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points.
The only other "player" I'm considering from the Chargers is their defense. The game's total isn't threatening, and Ryan Fitzpatrick can be turnover-prone. Out of 41 quarterbacks with a minimum of 150 dropbacks last year, his 4.4% turnover-worthy play rate tied for the eighth-highest mark.
Football Team Analysis: I'm not overly excited about using Washington's players, either. Brandon Staley takes over as head coach of the Chargers after serving as the defensive coordinator for a Rams unit that Football Outsiders ranked fourth in overall defense DVOA, fourth in pass defense DVOA, and third in rush defense DVOA. Sure, he no longer has Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey at his disposal, but the Chargers defense is loaded with elite talent, too.
Nonetheless, a small spread and Antonio Gibson's superb rookie season put him on the radar. The converted wideout made the transition to running back look easy, ranking tied for second in attempts per broken tackle (8.5 Att/Br) and sixth among backs with at least 100 carries in DVOA. He also cracked the top-10 in Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, ranking eighth. The biggest question gamers are looking to answer is; will he steal some receiving work from J.D. McKissic? Speculating on that happening and having it come to fruition can pay off big time in daily fantasy.
Terry McLaurin receives a seismic shift at the quarterback position, going from dink-and-dunker Alex Smith and a mishmash of underqualified quarterbacks to Captain YOLO-baller, Fitzmagic. Even with risk-averse quarterbacks, McLaurin ranked 16th in target share (23.6%) and 24th in Intended Air Yards (1,248). Insert Fitz, a gunslinger in every sense. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, he ranked second in aggressive-throw percentage (21.7 AGG%). He'll take chances, which benefits McLaurin's outlook even in a tricky matchup. In addition, I noted Washington's offensive pace in the Chargers' write-up, which benefits Gibson and McLaurin, too.
Finally, Washington's talented defense is a usable GPP play. I don't see the need to pay up for them in cash since Justin Herbert did an exquisite job of avoiding turnover-worthy plays and sacks as a rookie. Still, Washington's talented defense tied for the seventh-most turnovers forced (23), recorded the sixth-most sacks (47) and tied for the eighth-highest pressure percentage (25.9%), per Pro-Football-Reference.
Game: Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
- Spread: JAC -3.0 Points
- Over/Under: 44.5 Points
Jaguars Analysis: If first-time NFL head coach Urban Meyer's quotes from late August are to be taken at face value, he wants to play fast. In addition, his quotes in the linked article suggest the team playing things close to the vest in the preseason. All of this means gamers who use Jaguars are operating with limited information and speculating. The good news is the lack of concrete information can result in an edge. For instance, if you correctly guess their top pass-catcher or if you believe James Robinson will be utilized as a bell-cow as he was in 2020 and things break that way, you could be ahead of the curve.
Regarding the latter hypothetical, I'm leery of Robinson receiving similar bell-cow treatment after the coaching staff signed Carlos Hyde, spent a first-round pick on running back Travis Etienne, and recently signed Duke Johnson to help offset the loss of Etienne for the year. The rookie back was being cross-trained at receiver, and Meyer admitted being heartbroken the Giants selected Kadarius Toney. This can be construed as evidence of aspirations to use Etienne and J-Rob together if you choose to view things through that lens. However, I'm treading carefully with Robinson, suggesting only moderate exposure in GPPs, despite a plus matchup with a probably favorable game script.
I'm completely fading D.J. Chark. Instead, I prefer Laviska Shenault Jr. and Marvin Jones Jr. Chark's returning from finger surgery and didn't elicit glowing reports from the coaching staff in the offseason. Shenault and Jones profile as more versatile receivers, and either could emerge as rookie Trevor Lawrence's top option. They're viable dart throws.
Texans Analysis: The Texans are widely considered the worst team in the NFL. Tyrod Taylor's been named the starter for Week 1. His rushing ability will presumably elicit attention from daily gamers, but count me out of that group.
Brandin Cooks, Nico Collins, and Jordan Akins are the only Texans I'm even remotely interested in. They should benefit from Taylor's propensity to hold onto the ball forever, occasionally extending plays with his mobility. Taylor last played enough to be a qualified quarterback in 2017 as the starter for the Bills, and, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, his 3.02 seconds time to throw was the third-highest mark.
If Taylor's up to his old tricks, Cooks, Collins, and even Akins could haul in a few deep balls. The veteran speedster Cooks has averaged 14.2 yards per reception and 9.3 yards per target for his career. He's also responsible for an average depth of target of 13.0 yards downfield for his career, pairing nicely with Taylor's deep average throw depth throughout his career.
Collins is a big target at 6-foot-4 and 222 pounds, and he used his size advantage to average 17.8 yards per reception in college. Also, he wrapped up his college career, averaging a career-high 19.7 yards per reception, according to Sports-Reference. As for Akins, while the following linked piece is to a season-long article I wrote highlighting tight end streamers, the points for Akins apply in daily fantasy, and you should check that piece out. Adding to that from the daily fantasy perspective, though, he should be on a low percentage of rosters, and his punt salary is appealing to boot.
Game: Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals
- Spread: MIN -3.0 Points
- Over/Under: 47.5 Points
Vikings Analysis: The Vikings are road favorites. Assuming they hold up their end of the bargain, they'll be able to feed workhorse tailback Dalvin Cook to their heart's content. Cook finished second in rush attempts (312) last year, despite missing two games. He was one of only two backs to surpass 100 rushing yards per game in 2020, averaging 111.2. He's also an active presence in the passing game, hauling in 3.1 receptions per game for 25.8 receiving yards. Finally, he has a nose for the end zone, scoring 17 touchdowns in 14 games last year and 13 in 14 games in 2019—the matchup's good as well, since the Bengals ranked 21st in rush defense DVOA last season. Cook is one of the top DFS options this week.
Joining Cook as stellar plays are quarterback Kirk Cousins and his talented duo of receivers, Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. Jefferson went berserk as a rookie. Among qualified receivers, he ranked tied for 21st in receptions per game (5.5), sixth in receiving yards per game (87.5), and fourth in yards per target (11.2). Additionally, among receivers targeted at least 75 times, he ranked 11th in Intended Air Yards (1,391), sixth in target share (25.7%), and second in yards per route run (2.66 Y/RR).
Thielen's an excellent receiver in his own right. He averaged 4.9 receptions and 61.7 receiving yards per game. Further, he commanded looks in an offense highly concentrated in usage, amassing a 24.3% target share. Thielen's value last year was enhanced by 14 touchdown receptions, likely due for regression this year. Still, according to our NFL Red Zone Stats, his 20 red zone targets last year ranked as the third-highest mark at receiver, boding well for his touchdown potential for a team with a gaudy implied total of 25.25 points.
Finally, I'll call your attention to Minnesota's modestly priced defense as a DFS option. The Bengals struggled to keep Joe Burrow upright last year, ultimately leading to a season-ending knee injury. They've shaken up their offensive line, but it could take time for them to gel. Further, the preseason results aren't promising, ranking 20th in Pro Football Focus's pass-blocking grade. Last year they ranked 27th in that metric and tied for 24th in Football Outsiders' Adjusted Sack Rate offensive line metric.
Bengals Analysis: Burrow's rookie season was cut short in Week 11. Still, before his injury, he flashed fantasy football utility. Also, the offense as a whole provided reasons for optimism. To that point, in 10 games Burrow was healthy from Week 1 through Week 11 (Cincinnati had a Week 9 bye), they passed at the highest clip (65%) when the scoring margin ranged from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points. Using the same parameters, they tied for the ninth-fastest offense pace. Burrow can provide value through passing volume if they resume where they left off when he got hurt last year.
Joe Mixon's slated for a three-down role after the Bengals moved on from Giovani Bernard. As a result, I expect him to best his career-high marks set in 2020 with 3.5 receptions and 23.0 receiving yards per game. Behind bad offensive lines, he was able to best 71 rushing yards per game each of the last three years. There aren't many workhorse backs in the NFL, but Mixon projects to join that group this season. He's only the 15th-most expensive running back on DraftKings and the ninth-most expensive back on FanDuel. Therefore, he's underpriced on both platforms when considering his projected workload in a plus matchup. To the latter point, Football Outsiders ranked the Vikings 30th in rush defense DVOA.
Finally, someone should benefit in the receiving corps if the Bengals continue airing it out at the game's highest clip -- or somewhere near the top of the league -- with Burrow back. My two favorite options are Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins, in that order. As I noted writing about Boyd as an undervalued player in season-long leagues for numberFire back in July, Boyd was the most productive pass-catcher for the Bengals last year, with Burrow slinging the pigskin. Higgins was productive, too, parlaying 67 targets into 43 receptions, 851 Air Yards, 629 receiving yards, four receiving touchdowns, 9.39 yards per target, and 1.81 yards per route run.
Game: Arizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans
- Spread: TEN -3.0 Points
- Over/Under: 52.5 Points
Cardinals Analysis: This is arguably the biggest smash spot on the slate. The game's total is juicy, and the spread is small. There's back-and-forth scoring potential, and the pace projects to be breakneck. With the scoring margin ranging from trailing by seven to leading by seven, the Cardinals played at the second-fastest pace, and the Titans ranked directly behind them.
Kyler Murray's ceiling is the top-point scorer on the slate. According to StatHead, from Week 1 through Week 11 (when he hurt his shoulder), he led all scorers in DraftKings points and FanDuel points. DeAndre Hopkins is his No. 1 receiver. The team traded for him, and despite the unusual offseason, he was tops in target share (29.3%). There's no question who Murray's top stacking partner is. Further, Nuk's a great standalone play, too.
The team revamped their receiving room in the offseason. They signed A.J. Green and drafted Rondale Moore in the second round. Green was woefully inefficient. Maybe a change of scenery will prompt a bounceback for the once-dominant receiver. It's a defensible take. Moore's a dynamite player with the ball in his hands. His dynamism makes him an obvious candidate to soak up the inexcusable 11 screens head coach Kliff Kingsbury fed a washed-up Larry Fitzgerald on 71 targets last year.
Titans Analysis: New offensive coordinator Todd Downing worked under departed OC Arthur Smith, getting a first-hand look at how Tennessee's up-tempo offense clicked on all cylinders. Why fix what's not broken? However, the trade for stud wideout Julio Jones could indicate they'll slightly tweak their run:pass ratio, opening up the offense to pass a bit more.
Still, the offense will run through last year's rushing title winner Derrick Henry. The bulldozer back's 2,027 rushing yards in 2020 were the fifth-highest total in a single season all-time. The Titans are favored. You can do the math. I don't need to dive into Henry's case for use further.
Quarterback Ryan Tannehill silenced his skeptics following a breakout 2019 with a brilliant 2020. He's an extremely efficient quarterback, and he adds value running, averaging 16.1 rushing yards per game and scoring 11 rushing touchdowns in 28 games for the Titans. Typically the Titans lean on the running game, limiting his pass attempts. However, he might be in store for extra pass attempts because of the silly-fast pace of this game.
A.J. Brown's a beast and my favorite option from the Titans. Last year, he posted a 24.5% target share, 10.1 yards per target, and 2.65 yards per route run. Thus, Brown's efficiency was off the charts, and his 5.0 receptions per game, 76.8 receiving yards per game, and 11 receiving touchdowns in 14 marks were superb, too. He should destroy Arizona's putrid secondary.
Julio Jones was limited to nine games because of injuries, but he didn't show a decline when healthy. He averaged 5.7 receptions and 85.7 receiving yards per game. He was also supremely efficient, with 11.3 yards per target and 2.60 yards per route run. He should flourish as Brown's running mate.
Game: New York Jets at Carolina Panthers
- Spread: CAR -4.5 Points
- Over/Under: 44.5 Points
Jets Analysis: The Jets don't have a pretty implied total. Yet, a few of their players are viable options thanks to their paltry salaries. They selected Zach Wilson with the second pick in the draft, and he shined in the preseason. In fact, he earned Pro Football Focus's sixth-highest passing grade. Wilson overwhelmed college opposition, can move a bit, and has elite arm talent. Does that sound like a rookie who popped off last year? Yes, I'm eluding to Justin Herbert. The Panthers ranked 23rd in pass defense DVOA and tied for the 11th-lowest quarterback pressure percentage (22.4%). Wilson's introduction to NFL defenses in games that count doesn't project to be too daunting.
If Jamison Crowder cannot get through the COVID protocol, rookie Elijah Moore is on my list of dart throws. But, regardless of Crowder's status, Corey Davis is among my favorite receivers this week, salary considered. I recently highlighted him as one of my favorite sleepers in FanDuel contests for numberFire. He's also a steal on DraftKings. Davis broke out in his walk year with the Titans, sporting marks of 10.7 yards per target and 2.58 yards per route run. Further, he was the apple of Wilson's eye in the preseason, as illustrated by an insane target rate pointed out by Pro Football Focus's Nathan Jahnke.
I'm expecting Davis to be chalky. Still, I intend on being overweight to the field using him.
Panthers Analysis: Any analysis of DFS options from the Panthers starts with CMC. He played in only three games last year due to injury. However, that was enough time to see head coach Matt Rhule's and offensive coordinator Joe Brady's preference to force-feed their do-it-all back. He hauled in 5.7 receptions per game and averaged 124.7 yards from scrimmage. The dude is like a running back and wide receiver rolled into one. As a result, he's the highest-priced player on both DFS platforms. Still, he's worth spending up for. Further, it's even easier to accommodate his sizable salary-cap commitment with the soft pricing in Week 1.
The Jets prioritized rebuilding the offense in the offseason. Thus, their defense should remain below-average after finishing 21st in defense DVOA, despite hiring defensive whiz Robert Saleh as their head coach. As a result, while I'm only lukewarm on Sam Darnold exacting revenge on his former club, it's within his range of outcomes. Additionally, he's cheap, allowing gamers to spend up at other positions. Who his top pass-catcher will be is in question. D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson are both good players, and neither is high priced. I won't dissuade gamers from rostering them.
Nonetheless, it's rookie Terrace Marshall who I'm most interested in. He's the minimum salary on DraftKings and only $400 above the minimum salary on FanDuel. He enjoyed a stellar preseason, earning Pro Football Focus's 10th-highest receiving grade among wideouts. He hauled in nine of 12 targets for 181 yards and a touchdown. He also tallied an eye-popping 3.93 yards per route run. Marshall should be familiar with the team's offense since Brady was LSU's offensive coordinator in 2019. The big-bodied wideout snagged 13 touchdowns in 12 games that season, and he reeled in 10 more in seven games last year. He's a big-play threat, and even one would likely be enough to deliver value at his salary.
Game: Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts
- Spread: SEA -3.0
- Over/Under: 49.0 Points
Seahawks Analysis: The Seahawks poached Shane Waldron from the division-rival Rams to serve as their new offensive coordinator, and head coach Pete Carroll is reportedly taking a hands-off approach, allowing him to install an up-tempo quicker-passing offense. A faster offense would mean more plays, and more plays mean more fantasy-scoring potential. Further, Russell Wilson showcased what he can do when he's allowed to "cook," ranking fifth in passing yards (2,541) and first in touchdown passes (28) through the first nine weeks (Seattle's first eight games) of 2020, despite playing one less game than the quarterbacks ahead of him in passing yards.
D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are his stud wideouts, and they were target hogs. Metcalf tallied a 22.8% target share, and Lockett bested him with a 23.5% target share. The physically imposing Metcalf ranked third in Intended Air Yards (1,700) and tied for 11th among receivers in red zone targets (16). Lockett matched Metcalf with 16 red zone targets, and he could benefit from the expected quicker-hitting offense because of a shorter average depth of target than Metcalf. Both are excellent DFS options.
Chris Carson isn't a flashy back. However, he's a three-down back, ascending in the passing game with new career-high marks in receptions per game (3.1) and receiving yards per game (23.9) last season. In addition, the Seahawks are favored, so the game script should work in his favor.
Finally, Gerald Everett is a sneaky option. The projected quick-hit offense theoretically fits him like a glove. According to Sports Info Solutions, among receivers and tight ends targeted at least 50 times, Everett's 6.0 yards after the catch per reception (YAC Per Rec) tied for the 11th-highest mark last season.
Colts Analysis: No, the absence of Jonathan Taylor in the table above isn't an accident. Last year, Taylor balled out down the stretch, feasting on cupcakes and using his elite speed to pile up fantasy points. I'm not discounting his production because of the level of competition. Rather, I'm disinterested in paying his sizable salary when he's game-script dependent, and it's not hard to imagine the Colts struggling after Carson Wentz's limited offseason due to foot surgery.
If they fall behind, Nyheim Hines could be called upon to help them dig out of a hole as the team's best pass-catching back. A negative game script could also result in ample targets for Michael Pittman Jr. and Parris Campbell, and they won't have to deal with T.Y. Hilton muddying the target distribution since he's hurt. Still, the prudent move might be to avoid the Colts entirely, so tread carefully and don't go overboard on exposure to any of them.
Game: Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints
- Spread: GB -3.5 Points
- Over/Under: 49.5 Points
Packers Analysis: Aaron Rodgers won the 2020 NFL MVP Award. So suffice to say he was elite last year, leading the way in completion percentage (70.7%), touchdown passes (48), Adjusted Yards gained per pass attempt (9.6 AY/A), Quarterback Rating (121.5), QBR (84.4), and Pro Football Focus passing grade. Clearly, he's a worthy DFS option.
His No. 1 receiver, Davante Adams is on the shortlist for top receiver in the NFL. Last year, he finished second in target share (28.9%). In addition, he was first in Pro Football Focus receiving grade, yards per route run (2.96 Y/RR) among receivers targeted at least 75 times, Defense Adjusted-yards Above Replacement (DYAR), receptions per game (8.2), receiving yards per game (98.1), touchdown receptions (18), red zone targets (28). He's a threat -- if not the favorite -- to lead receivers in scoring this week -- and every week, for that matter.
Aaron Jones is a do-it-all back who the Packers haven't run into the ground. He's rushed for 5.2 yards per attempt in his career, and he exceeded 100 yards per game from scrimmage in 2020. He also scored 11 touchdowns. The season before, he led the NFL in rushing touchdowns with 16. Jones's ceiling is high, and the floor's not too shabby, either. He's a great option in all game types.
Robert Tonyan and Randall Cobb join Green Bay's Big Three as other usable options. Tonyan's an obvious touchdown-regression candidate after scoring 11 last year and converting 11 red zone targets into seven touchdowns in that area of the field. However, after going from a complete non-factor before last year to an integral part of the offense, it's possible he helps offset the touchdown regression with more targets, receptions, and receiving yards. After all, he did tally a stellar 9.9 yards per target last season. Speaking of yards per target, Cobb's shown he still has something left in the tank, amassing 9.2 yards per target in 2020 after blowing up for 10.0 yards per target in 20219. Further, Rodgers lobbied for the club to re-acquire his former teammate. So, in theory, he could throw to him fairly frequently as a player he trusts.
Saints Analysis: It's a new era for the Saints. Drew Brees retired, and Jameis Winston is the starter. However, Winston can't be trusted with Swiss Army Knife Taysom Hill lurking to vulture goal-line plays and scoring chances as a result. Michael Thomas is on IR to start the year, leaving Alvin Kamara as the only established offensive player. The versatile back averaged 112.5 yards per game from scrimmage, adding 5.5 receptions per game and a league-high 21 rushing plus receiving touchdowns last season. He's game-script proof, and his floor and ceiling are elite.
The only other player on my radar in Week 1 from the Saints is preseason-darling Marquez Callaway. He led receivers in Pro Football Focus's receiving grade, hauling in eight of nine targets for 165 yards and two touchdowns. You can see some of his preseason highlights below.
You can also see an example of him tracking and adjusting to a deep ball in college at Tennessee below.
Callaway was an undrafted free agent last year, but he's not without intriguing traits. For instance, he has an 82nd percentile burst score, per Player Profiler. The Saints need someone to step up as Winston's top passing game option, and Callaway's my favorite option to do so. Maybe Tre'Quan Smith surprises after failing to live up to the hype through three seasons. I'll let others take that chance, though.
Game: Denver Broncos at New York Giants
- Spread: DEN -3.0 Points
- Over/Under: 41.5 Points
Broncos Analysis: This is the clubhouse leader for the least fantasy-friendly game of the week. However, the Broncos have a few semi-interesting options. The Broncos will have about as dramatic of a stylistic change at quarterback as possible, switching from Drew Lock to Teddy Bridgewater. Among quarterbacks who attempted at least 350 passes in 2020, Lock's average throw depth of 8.8 yards downfield was first, and Bridgewater's mark of 6.8 yards was fourth-shortest, per Sports Info Solutions.
The move from a gunslinger to a dink-and-dunker is devastating for field-stretcher Courtland Sutton's value. Jeudy's average depth of target of 13.8 yards downfield last year was fifth-deepest among players targeted at least 75 times. However, NFL Draft evaluators lauded his route running entering the league last year, lending me hope he can thrive as an intermediate option. Additionally, he excelled with the ball in his hands, averaging 5.1 YAC Per Rec. However, Fant was even better after the catch, tallying 6.0 YAC Per Rec, and his average depth of target was shallower at 7.0 yards downfield. Am I crazy about using either of them? No, but they're intriguing and defensible plays.
I'm a bit more interested in rookie running back Javonte Williams. Head coach Vic Fangio said about Williams, "he's earned the trust and we're to at all against playing him in any situation at any time in the game." Before handwaving that away as "coach speak," recognize that they also held him out of the preseason finale, indicating they didn't have any reservations about his readiness. As for Willaims' skill level, he was dominant in his final college season. According to the Pro Football Focus Draft Guide, Williams led the nation with 75 broken tackles, also setting a new Pro Football Focus record with 0.48 broken tackles per attempt. Further, he earned a 95.9 rushing grade that draft analyst Mike Renner stated, "was also far and away the highest we've ever see in a single season." The Broncos are favored, setting the table for a favorable game script for Williams. Finally, he's the minimum salary for a running back on DraftKings, and a bargain on FanDuel.
Finally, the defense is a stellar selection. The Broncos ranked 13th in defense DVOA last year with Von Miller out. He's back, and the team bolstered their secondary through free agency and the draft. The arrow's pointing up for them.
Giants Analysis: The Giants' implied total is under 20 points. That's terrible. Daniel Jones is a below-average quarterback opposing a defense that could be one of the best in the NFL.
Saquon Barkley's the elephant in the room. He's returning from a surgically-repaired knee, but he's priced among the top backs, despite questions about how large of a workload he'll receive in his first game back. A quick turnaround with the Week 2 Thursday Night Football game looming also concerns me for Barkley's Week 1 workload. I have no desire to use him this week.
The only player Giant I'm moderately interested in is Sterling Shepard. He averaged 5.5 receptions and 54.7 receiving yards per game last year.
Game: Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs
- Spread: KC -5.5 Points
- Over/Under: 54.5 Points
Browns Analysis: This is a possible shootout. Before readers chastise me for ragging on Jonathan Taylor and including Nick Chubb as an option in the table above, I'm more optimistic the Browns can hang in a neutral game script and continue to feed him the rock. Also, Chubb's a superior runner and arguably the best in the NFL. Among backs with at least 100 carries last year, he ranked third in DYAR and second in DVOA. He also earned Pro Football Focus's highest run grade in 2019 and ranked 11th last season. Finally, the Chiefs ranked 31st in run defense DVOA. Chubb's a GPP option.
Baker Mayfield's development in the NFL hasn't been linear. He came out of the gates hot as a rookie before stumbling in his sophomore campaign. He bounced back admirably last year, saving his best play for last. In his last four games of the regular season, he averaged 280.3 passing yards per game, throwing five touchdowns and only one interception. Mayfield's play can be construed as a sign he became more comfortable with the new offense installed by head coach Kevin Stefanski.
Odell Beckham Jr.'s season ended with a torn ACL. Thankfully, teammate Donovan Peoples-Jones says OBJ looks like his old self. Hype chatter should probably be taken with a grain of salt. Still, it's better than the alternative. Additionally, his pre-injury usage in 2020 is encouraging, namely his 21.6% target share and average depth of target of 13.6 yards. Peoples-Jones was also targeted deep with an average depth of target of 16.7 yards. I specifically highlight their deep-ball usage because Sharp Football Stats credited the Chiefs with tying for the eighth-highest average explosive pass rate allowed (nine percent).
Kansas City also struggled mightily defending tight ends last year, hence Austin Hooper's inclusion in the table. The Chiefs coughed up the seventh-most DraftKings points per game to tight ends and the eighth-most FanDue points per game. If this turns into a back-and-forth shootout, Hooper's capable of finding paydirt and exceeding the expectations that accompany his modest salary.
Chiefs Analysis: The Chiefs have an implied total of 30.0 points. Let me repeat that. Their implied total is 30.0 points. Last year, their offense averaged 29.6 points per game. Patrick Mahomes is an annual MVP favorite, and he's already won the award in 2018. Further, he led the lead with 316.0 passing yards per game and tossed in 38 passing touchdowns for good measure. The guy's unreal and worth ponying up for.
His top two pass catchers are Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. Kelce's posts No. 1 receiver numbers which are unheard of at tight end. According to StatHead, he leads the position in targets (431), receptions (305), receiving yards (3,981), and touchdown receptions (26) since 2018. He also checks the efficiency box, ranking fourth among tight ends in that period with 9.24 yards per target.
Hill's speed is unmatchable and pairs perfectly with Mahomes's cannon for an arm. He averaged an NFL-high 14.0 yards per touch last year. Hill also ranked 12th in yards from scrimmage (1,399). He's capable of a blowup performance any week.
The lofty expectations that accompanied Clyde Edwards-Helaire joining an Andy Reid-coached offense overshadowed a stellar rookie season. His 1,100 yards in 13 games feel overlooked by the fantasy community. He also only scratched the surface as a receiver, averaging 2.8 receptions and 22.8 receiving yards per game after excelling in the passing attack in college, hauling in 55 passes for 453 yards in 15 games for LSU his final collegiate season. There's a path to a workhorse role and emerging as the third option in the passing attack behind Kelce and Hill. In addition, the Chiefs are favored, adding to his favorable game-script potential -- albeit for a team that's willing to keep their foot on the gas.
Finally, the fluid third-option situation that has fantasy-friendly potential in a Mahomes-led offense thrusts Mecole Hardman and Byron Pringle into the GPP dart throw mix.
Game: Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
- Spread: NE -3.0 Points
- Over/Under: 43.5 Points
Dolphins Analysis: Traveling to New England to face the Bill Belichick-coached Patriots is a tough way for Tua Tagovailoa to start a sophomore season in which he's looking to prove himself as a franchise quarterback. It's not a situation I want to bet on him in daily fantasy. The backfield looked like an RBBC in the preseason, so I'm out on the running backs, too.
The only player I have a tepid interest in is speedy rookie receiver Jaylen Waddle. The rookie receiver should have a rapport with Tagovailoa from playing with him at Alabama. Further, he's a burner, recording a 40-yard dash in 4.32 seconds at his Pro Day, resulting in a 96th percentile speed score after adjusting for timing differences between Pro Days and the NFL Draft Combine. Wadle's fleet feet helped him average 21.1 yards per reception in his final collegiate season. The Dolphins thought so highly of him they spent the sixth pick in the draft on him. He could be the top receiver in the offense. However, even if he isn't peppered with targets, his elite speed means he could deliver value at his minimal salary with just one big play.
Patriots Analysis: Mac Jones won the quarterback competition, so the rookie's making his first NFL start. The Dolphins are coached by a Belichick disciple, Brian Flores. Unlike many coaches on the Belichick coaching tree, Flores appears to be a legitimately capable head coach, improving from five wins in 2019 to 10 last year. The defensive-minded head coach's imprint on the team resulted in an 11th ranking in defense DVOA. They were at their best defending the pass, ranking sixth in pass defense DVOA. I expect Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to ask Jones to manage the game and avoid costly mistakes, a bad recipe for DFS utility.
This is another RBBC I'm disinterested in. Damien Harris is a two-down banger with rookie Rhamondre Stevenson possibly breathing down his neck after an impressive preseason. James White is the team's top pass-catching back, but he's a non-factor as a runner. I suppose one can talk themselves into using him at $4,400 on DraftKings thanks to their full-point PPR scoring. However, I want to swing for a higher ceiling.
There is someone on the Patriots I'm highly interested in this week. Jonnu Smith is a handful after the catch, and his catch-and-run skills dovetail with Jones' quick-passing style. Elaborating on both points, Smith has averaged 7.2 yards after the catch per reception in his career, and Jones got rid of the ball fast in the first preseason game.
His average time to throw would've ranked as a top-10 fastest mark among qualified quarterbacks in 2020, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Smith is my favorite cheap tight end on FanDuel. He's a sweet GPP pivot off the likely chalky Kyle Pitts at $4,400 on DraftKings.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
