There’s no time for a breather after Sunday’s main slate. Rather, there’s an opportunity to win more money in Sunday Night Football’s single-game contests.
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Game: Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams
Bears Analysis: The Bears have an ugly implied total of only 19.25 points. Essentially, that tells you all you need to know about their outlook tonight. Andy Dalton's keeping the seat warm for first-round pick Justin Fields. Still, the Red Rocket would already be a poor option against a talented defense that Football Outsiders ranked fourth in pass defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) in 2020. In addition, the Rams ceded NFL lows in passing yards per game (190.7) and touchdowns (17) per Pro-Football-Reference. However, he's an even easier fade with the prospect of an early hook or specific packages catered to Fields' fleet feet resulting in him standing on the sideline hanging over his head.
There’s no time for a breather after Sunday’s main slate. Rather, there’s an opportunity to win more money in Sunday Night Football’s single-game contests.
Create Optimal lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool
Game: Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams
Bears Analysis: The Bears have an ugly implied total of only 19.25 points. Essentially, that tells you all you need to know about their outlook tonight. Andy Dalton's keeping the seat warm for first-round pick Justin Fields. Still, the Red Rocket would already be a poor option against a talented defense that Football Outsiders ranked fourth in pass defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) in 2020. In addition, the Rams ceded NFL lows in passing yards per game (190.7) and touchdowns (17) per Pro-Football-Reference. However, he's an even easier fade with the prospect of an early hook or specific packages catered to Fields' fleet feet resulting in him standing on the sideline hanging over his head.
Allen Robinson is the only player I'm actively targeting from the Bears. According to Sports Info Solutions, he had a career-low average depth of target of 9.4 yards downfield last season. Comparatively, Darnell Mooney's mark was 11.4 yards downfield. A-Rob's shallower target depth better meshes with Dalton's dink-and-dunking. To that point, Dalton's average throw depth of 6.6 yards downfield was the fourth-lowest mark among quarterbacks, with at least 300 pass attempts last season. Further, Robinson's a top-flight receiver, commanding a 24.3% target share and sporting per-game averages of 6.4 receptions and 78.1 receiving yards.
Dalton's short throws and a lackluster offensive line seemingly encouraging him to continue his short-throwing tendencies thrusts tight ends Cole Kmet and Jimmy Graham as well as running backs David Montgomery and Damien Williams into consideration. Further, even with the electrifying receiving talent surrounding him last year on the Cowboys, Dalton hucked 43 passes to tight end Dalton Schultz and 62 combined passes to Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard.
Expanding on the running back situation, Montgomery acquitted himself well in the passing attack with Tarik Cohen hurt last year. According to Stathead, out of 18 running backs targeted at least 50 times, Monty's 6.44 yards per target was third best. However, Williams is a capable alternative if the club opts to take some work off Montgomery's plate rather than run him into the ground. Williams posted 5.8 yards per target in 2019, and he has seasons of 6.7 yards per target (Y/Tgt), 6.9 Y/Tgt, and 7.8 Y/Tgt on his resume. Nonetheless, my preference is to fade this situation entirely. The game script is likely to be negative, and the Rams were stingy defending backs in the passing game.
Again, A-Rob's the only player from the Bears I prioritize rostering.
Rams Analysis: The Rams have a far more appetizing implied total of 27.25 points. I'm focused on loading up on their players. There's a mystery surrounding the top options on their offense. Mathew Stafford is the safest option, and he's a lineup lock for me. McVay coaxed big numbers out of Jared Goff at various times in his career, and Stafford's an upgrade at the position.
Stafford's armed with a cannon for an arm, so DeSean Jackson stands out as a theoretical good fit if he has something left in the tank. D-Jax is clearly behind the one-two punch of Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp. Nonetheless, his elite speed and big-play ability necessitate only one play to provide value at his tiny salary. The bugaboo for the field-stretching wideout has been injuries. However, he's averaged roughly three receptions and 50 receiving yards per game at over 17 yards per reception in the eight games he's played the last two years. Also, the matchup shouldn't dissuade you from using him. According to Sharp Football Stats, Chicago ranked midpack in average explosive pass rate (eight percent) allowed last season.
As for the top two receivers, I don't have a strong leaning when picking between Woods and Kupp. McVay's showcased a willingness to move his wideouts around to take advantage of mismatches. Elaborating on that, according to Pro Football Focus, Woods lined up wide 50.6% of the time and played in the slot 49.1% of the time. Comparatively, Kupp handled the slot 61.7% of the time and lined up wide at a 38.3% clip. I won't begrudge gamers for using both receivers or building identical rosters featuring each. In fact, the latter is likely what I'm going to do since it's unclear who Stafford will prefer.
I have a stronger inclination for their backfield. The team traded for Sony Michel toward the end of the preseason. At the time, Darrell Henderson Jr. was dealing with a thumb injury. While Michel's stellar showing last year and in the preseason with the Patriots this year suggests he's not dusted like he appeared to be in 2019, it's unclear if he's fully up to speed with the team's offense. Conversely, Henderson's familiar with the Rams' offense, having played two seasons with the team.
The favorable game script bodes well for his workload. Further, I discussed him as a viable long-shot to lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns because of the high-upside offense he's attached to and McVay's propensity to call running plays in scoring territory. I penned that write-up before the team acquired Michel. Nonetheless, if Henderson is the preferred goal-line back, he could find paydirt this week. In addition, Henderson could put his 4.49-seconds 40-yard dash speed to good use against a Bears defense tied for the second-highest average explosive run rate (14%) allowed in 2020.
Finally, Tyler Higbee's my preferred option at tight end. However, the Rams utilized 12-personnel (one running back, two receivers, and two tight ends) at the fourth-highest rate (29%) last season, per Sharp Football Stats. The team allowed Gerald Everett to leave in free agency. However, receiver-to-tight-end convert Jacob Harris could emerge as a passing-game option. He has eye-popping workout metrics, as you can see on his Player Profiler page. Also, according to Pro Football Focus, he wasn't used to pass block at all in the preseason, running a route 95.7% of the time, commanding 13 targets. Unfortunately, he wasn't efficient, reeling in only five receptions. Still, that could be a product of playing entirely with backup quarterbacks, as Stafford didn't play in the preseason. I don't suggest going overboard on Harris. Yet, he's a viable contrarian selection who opens up a boatload of salary-cap space.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.