Week 1 is in the books, providing us tangible evidence of how teams used players. As a result, this week’s featured player pool is reduced substantially from last week. Check out my favorite options for Week 2 below.
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Week 2 Matchups
Game: Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears
Bengals Analysis: The Bengals are road underdogs after a hard-earned overtime win against the Vikings last week. Two players starred for the Bengals in the win, Joe Mixon and Ja'Marr Chase.
Mixon was a workhorse in every sense. According to Pro-Football-Reference, his 33 touches were three more than any other player's total last week. He piled up 150 yards from scrimmage, one touchdown, and was active in the passing game, hauling in all four of his targets. Moving beyond the box score, according to Pro Football Focus, Mixon ran a route on 18 of 23 passing snaps played, lining up in the slot for a pair of snaps to boot. As a result, Mixon's one of the top backs on this week's slate.
So much for the preseason drop issues for Chase, eh? He led all of Cinci's receivers with 30 routes on 31 pass snaps. Further, his 3.48 yards per route run (Y/RR) was the 10th-highest mark among receivers targeted at least three times. He has a fabulous matchup against the Bears on the heels of a Sunday Night Football game in which they coughed up 236 receiving yards and three touchdown grabs on 14 receptions to the Rams' wideouts. Chase's salary hasn't caught up to his 5-101-1 line on seven targets and demonstrated No. 1 receiver status on the Bengals.
As for Tee Higgins, he's a viable pivot in GPPs. Unfortunately, I'm out on Tyler Boyd and Joe Burrow until they open up the offense. According to Sharp Football Stats, the Bengals passed at only a 47% clip when the scoring margin ranged from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points. Also, the rest of the way, I'll be using the same scoring margin when referencing situation-neutral run-to-pass ratios.
Bears Analysis: David Montgomery's playing time wasn't that of a workhorse. However, he dominated backfield carries, looking nimble and quick, piling up 108 rushing yards and a score. He also snagged his only target for 10 yards. In addition, while the receiving work is underwhelming, his usage is encouraging. He played 24 passing snaps, running a route on 20. Further, he lined up in the slot once and out wide three times. Continuing to be used in that capacity will lead to better receiving performances. Monty has to be in the DFS mix this week as a do-it-all back on a favored team.
Allen Robinson posted a 28.2% target share. He played 43 passing snaps and ran a route on all of them. The volume is tantalizing. Finally, Cole Kmet has distanced himself from Jimmy Graham, running 32 routes on 35 passing snaps compared to nine routes on nine passing snaps for the veteran. The second-year tight end is a value option at the position.
Game: Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns
- Spread: CLE -12.5 Points
- Over/Under: 45.0 Points
Texans Analysis: Feel-good Week 1 win aside; it's unwise to alter expectations for the Texans drastically. Their backfield's a four-back committee, and the talent level on the roster is lackluster. They do have one legit weekly fantasy option, though, Brandin Cooks.
The spread is huge, so the Texans should be in catch-up mode for much of the game. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Tyrod Taylor's Average Intended Air Yards (9.5 IAY) tied for the fifth-highest mark in Week 1. His willingness to air it out meshes perfectly with Cooks's field-stretching ability. As a result, according to Sports Info Solutions, Cooks tallied the ninth most Intended Air Yards (137), erupting for 132 receiving yards on five receptions and seven targets.
Browns Analysis: The Browns have a tasty implied total of 28.75 points and a massive 12.5-point spread favoring them. This sets up perfectly for a Nick Chubb smash spot. Carlos Hyde ran for 44 yards on nine carries, and James Robinson rushed for 25 yards on five carries last week. Chubb is leaps and bounds better than Jacksonville's backfield duo. He parlayed 15 rushes into 83 yards and a pair of scores last week. Last year, he finished third in rushing yards per game (88.9) and averaged 5.6 yards per rush attempt.
This week, Odell Beckham Jr. has already been ruled out, leaving Jarvis Landry as the team's No. 1 receiver. He offered versatility last week, rushing twice for 13 yards and a score in addition to reeling in all five of his targets for 71 yards.
Rookie speedster Anthony Schwartz also turned heads, rushing once for 17 yards and catching three of five targets for 69 yards. Unfortunately, he played 18 passing snaps, lagging behind Landy (29 passing snaps) and Donovan Peoples-Jones (28 passing snaps), creating a risk to use him. However, he's a GPP option thanks to his big-play ability and usage, resulting in an average depth of target of 24.4 yards downfield, per Pro Football Focus.
Finally, with Baker Mayfield slinging the rock on a team with a gaudy implied total, he's obviously a viable option as well. Unfortunately, he's more of a GPP option since the Browns could take the air out of the ball and salt the game away if they race out to a big lead. Therefore, Mayfield would need to have a hand in accounting for the scores resulting in a lopsided margin to pay off for gamers who use him if that's how things play out.
Game: Los Angeles Rams at Indianapolis Colts
- Spread: LAR -3.5 Points
- Over/Under: 48.0 Points
Rams Analysis: I wrote about Darrell Henderson Jr. and Cooper Kupp as two of my favorite FanDuel value plays a couple of days ago for numberFire. I advise checking that piece out for all of the specific reasons for why I'm enamored with both on FanDuel -- and DraftKings, too. For those who don't wish to check out the link, the cliff notes version is Henderson was used as the bell-cow in the backfield, and Kupp dominated all the meaningful measures among the team's receivers, clearly standing out as Matthew Stafford's top pass-catcher.
Speaking of Stafford, he was brilliant in his first game in Sean McVay's offense. Among quarterbacks with a minimum of 10 dropbacks last week, Stafford's 11.1% big-time-throw percentage ranked as the third-highest mark. He lit the Bears up for 321 passing yards and three scores on only 26 passes.
Tyler Higbee rounds out the Rams I'm interested in this week. His five receptions for 68 yards on six targets don't jump off the page. However, his 100% offensive snap percentage and 25 routes on 28 passing snaps are dreamy numbers. Without Gerald Everett on the team, he's no longer being kept in to block. His new usage forebodes well for his receiving outlook. He's underpriced on both sites and one of the best tight end options this week.
Colts Analysis: The Carson Wentz era for the Colts started with a thud. I'm not point chasing Zach Pascal's two-touchdown performance. Yet, there was an interesting development in Week 1 that warrants analysis.
The backfield duo of Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines were leaned on heavily. Taylor carried the ball 17 times for 56 yards and hauled in six of seven targets for 60 yards. He ran a route on 18 of 24 passing snaps played and lined up out wide twice. As a result, he's no longer a game-script-dependent, boom-or-bust back.
Hines is a more interesting option at DraftKings than FanDuel because of the former's full-point point-per-reception (PPR) scoring. Sure, he carried the ball nine times for 34 yards and isn't a total dud on the ground. However, it's his six catches for 48 yards on eight targets that are his fantasy calling card. In addition, I'm enamored with the fact he ran a route on 22 of 24 passing snaps played, lined up in the slot once, and lined up wide an eye-catching six times. Taylor and Hines are GPP options this week.
Game: Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
- Spread: BUF -3.0 Points
- Over/Under: 47.5 Points
Bills Analysis: Josh Allen was frequently under duress against Pittsburgh's talented pass-rushing defensive line. They generated a 25.5% pressure rate, despite blitzing at only a 1.8% rate. The Dolphins generated a 25.0% pressure rate against the Patriots in their opener. However, they blitzed at a ridiculous 52.5% rate to do so. This has a chance to be a blowup spot for Allen if they continue to blitz at a high rate. In addition, they could opt to blitz less and fail to generate as much pressure, which is a possible recipe for Allen torching them in Buffalo's pass-happy offense. Allen's one of my favorite quarterbacks this week, still presenting rushing upside and a sky-high passing ceiling with the Bills passing at a 67% situation-neutral rate.
The pass-happy offense opens the door for multiple receivers delivering value. Stefon Diggs commanded a 28.6% target share. Yet, Cole Beasley also accounted for a 26.5% target share. Emmanuel Sanders's 16.3% target share lagged behind them. However, his 147 Intended Air Yards were the seventh-most. Allen missed him streaking wide open behind Pittsburgh's defense for what would have been an easy touchdown. All three have merit for usage, and Sanders might even fly under the radar because of his pedestrian four receptions for 52 yards trailing Diggs's and Beasley's totals.
Dolphins Analysis: The Dolphins won a low-scoring AFC East showdown with the Patriots last week. Tua Tagoavailoa failed to turn heads, and the backfield was a full-blown committee. DeVante Parker (4-81-0 on seven targets) and Jaylen Waddle (4-61-1 on five targets) played reasonably well. However, Will Fuller V returns from suspension, adding another mouth to feed in a low-volume passing attack. This is a situation I'm avoiding.
However, if you're hellbent on using someone from this game or running it back against a Bills stack, Waddle's my favorite option. He primarily played the slot, and his average depth of target was shorter than Parker's. In addition, Fuller's a field-stretching option that also projects for a deep average depth of target. Last year, the Bills did a great job of limiting explosive passing plays, so the Waddle profiles as the best matchup-based option.
Game: New England Patriots at New York Jets
- Spread: NE -5.5 Points
- Over/Under: 43.0 Points
Patriots Analysis: Mac Jones wasn't overwhelmed in his debut. That's a positive for the offense functioning at a level to support fantasy options. However, this projects to be a low-scoring contest in which the Patriots can impose their will on the ground. It's just the type of layout Damien Harris can thrive in.
Unfortunately, he lost a costly fumble late last week. So, it's possible he ends up in Bill Belichick's doghouse, rendering him a GPP-only option, despite the ideal game script projection. Interestingly, Harris played 15 passing snaps to 24 for pass-catching specialist James White, and he ran 10 routes compared to 16 for White. Harris parlayed his passing-game usage into two receptions for 17 yards on three targets. Burying the lede, he also rushed for 100 yards on 23 carries. Still, the passing-game usage is noteworthy because he might not be the non-factor in the aerial game most people expected. He's the only player from the Patriots I'm interested in.
Okay, so I'm using semantics in the previous sentence. I'm also interested in New England's defense. The Jets are underdogs with an implied total of 18.75. Making matters worse, they have a rookie quarterback leading the way. Belichick is notorious for perplexing rookie signal-callers, and not even otherworldly rookie Justin Herbert solved him last year. Therefore, I'm not counting on Wilson having any success. Further, Wilson's 6.5% turnover-worthy-play rate was the highest in the league last week.
Jets Analysis: I'm completely out on the Jets this week.
Game: San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles
- Spread: SF -3.0 Points
- Over/Under: 49.5 Points
49ers Analysis: The 49ers have the unenviable task of playing in the 1:00 PM ET time slot as a PT-zone team. Thankfully, it wasn't an issue for San Francisco last week. Deebo Samuel put to bed any debate as to who the No. 1 receiver on the team was, pantsing the Lions for a 9-189-1 line on 12 targets. He thrived with a drastic usage change from 2020, seeing his average depth of target surge from 2.2 yards to 8.3 yards this season. It's not point-chasing to use him, and he's an excellent selection in all game types this week.
George Kittle had troubling usage in the opener, running a route on only 16 of 26 passing plays. Yet, he avoided a dud by efficiently reeling in four receptions on five targets for 78 yards. The stud tight end's 4.88 Y/RR ranked second at the position among tight ends targeted at least three times. He's not a stranger to efficiency, either, ranking first among tight ends targeted at least 30 times in 2020 with 2.84 Y/RR. Finally, Kittle erupted against the Eagles last year, tallying a 15-183-1 line on 15 targets with an eight-yard run, too. Still, I'm deeming Kittle only a GPP option because of how often he was asked to pass block last week.
The last player I'm interested in from the 49ers is Week 1's most surprising performer, rookie running back Elijah Mitchell. I featured him as one of my favorite FanDuel value plays at numberFire. I love him at DraftKings, too. He has insane workout metrics, profiling as something like a Raheem Mostert-clone. There's some risk fellow rookie Trey Sermon will be active this week after a healthy inactive last week, possibly cutting into Mitchell's playing time. Regardless, I'm willing to take the chance he sees enough work to pay off at his modest salary against a defense that yielded a high percentage of explosive runs last week to the Falcons.
Eagles Analysis: The Eagles went to Atlanta and laid the wood to the Falcons in Week 1. Second-year quarterback Jalen Hurts did it all in Week 1, passing for 264 yards and three scored, and rushing seven times for 62 yards. He also was a drastically different passer than we saw last year, utilizing short throws for a Week 1-low average throw depth of 3.1 yards, far shorter than his 8.4 yards average throw depth per Sports Info Solutions. He also sped up his time to throw, perhaps an indication he's processing things more clearly in his second season.
Rookie DeVonta Smith immediately resembled the decorated, award-winning collegiate player he was in 2020, leading the team in targets (eight) and receiving yards (71), tying for the team lead in receptions (six), and hauling in a touchdown. He's the real deal with the advanced metrics to back up the tidy box score numbers.
Quietly, Jalen Reagor was an integral part of the offense, reeling in all six of his targets for 49 yards and a score. He was the clear-cut second option in the passing attack, running 27 routes on 29 passing snaps. After being used as a vertical option with an average depth of target of 14.0 yards downfield last year, the coaching staff prioritized getting the ball in his hands and letting him work after the catch, resulting in an average depth of target of 1.2 yards downfield. If the Eagles fall behind, there's potential for him to rack up points via short receptions. Thus, you should keep him in mind in GPPs.
Running back Miles Sanders delivered a well-round line last week, rushing 15 times for 74 yards and catching four of five targets for 39 yards. Unfortunately for him, rookie running back Kenneth Gainwell scored a rushing touchdown and flashed in a change-of-pace role. Still, the Lions' backfield two-some gave the 49ers fits, accounting for 93 yards and a score on the ground and a 16-121-1 line on 21 targets through the air. Sanders is fully capable of gashing the 49ers.
Game: Las Vegas Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers
- Spread: PIT -6.5 Points
- Over/Under: 47.0 Points
Raiders Analysis: The Raiders are saddled with numerous hurdles to clear. First, they're on a short week after playing in last week's Monday Night Football game. Second, they required overtime to beat the Ravens, needing six-plus minutes in overtime to topple them. Third, they're traveling cross country for a 1:00 PM ET game. Finally, they're opposing a Pittsburgh defense that stymied Buffalo's high-powered offense.
Regardless, Darren Waller's a star and the top tight end. Sure, he's priced as the top tight end. Yet, that shouldn't deter gamers from rostering him in all game types. Derek Carr peppered Waller with a Week-1 high 19 targets. Waller delivered a studly 10-105-1 line on his otherworldly target total. If the Raiders are in catch-up mode, Waller's a great bet to amass double-digit targets again this week.
Steelers Analysis: Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool tied for second at receiver in routes run, trailing JuJu Smith-Schuster. Still, it was Johnson who paced the team in targets (10), receptions (five), and scored the offense's only touchdown. He's the receiver to have on rosters on the favored Steelers.
However, my favorite option from the team is rookie running back Najee Harris. He played 100% of the team's offensive snaps. Unfortunately, he wasn't efficient, rushing for only 45 yards on 16 carries and hauling in one reception for four yards on three targets. Nonetheless, his playing time couldn't be better. He should also find the sledding less difficult again the Raiders after Baltimore's backs rushed for 98 yards and a pair of scores on 21 carries. Further, he could do damage through the air after Ravens' running backs caught five of seven targets for 44 yards.
Finally, the Steelers are comically underpriced on DraftKings as sizable home favorites that can get after the passer and force turnovers. I'm less enamored with them on FanDuel, where there's a forthcoming obviously great and cheaper alternative.
Game: New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
- Spread: NO -3.5 Points
- Over/Under: 44.5 Points
Saints Analysis: The Saints surprisingly boat raced the Packers last week. Jameis Winston chucked five touchdowns on only 20 attempts and 148 passing yards. He also added 37 yards on the ground. The lopsided nature of the game creates some mystery about how the team will play in a closer game. Nonetheless, the outlook is bright.
One thing that is clear; Alvin Kamara will be force-fed the ball. He ran 20 times for 84 yards and reeled in three of four targets for eight yards and a score. He's one of the top options at running back every week, including this week as one attached to a betting favorite.
Not everything came up roses from a fantasy perspective last week. Preseason darling Marquez Callaway was a chalky bargain option, and he caught only one pass for 14 yards on a pair of targets. That sets things up nicely for going back to the well this week with him on a reduced percentage of daily fantasy rosters. Callaway ran 21 routes on 22 passing. Putting that in perspective, Winston and Taysom Hill were credited with only 24 dropbacks. Maybe Callaway will continue to run what Establish The Run's Evan Silva deems wind sprints -- when a receiver runs downfield without netting a target. However, maybe he won't. The uncertainty creates volatility, and I'm digging him in GPPs.
Finally, Adam Trautman's usage was overshadowed by teammate Juwan Johnson catching two touchdown passes. As you can see in the following tweet, Trautman had a desirable target share.
Promisingly for his fantasy outlook, he was kept in to block on just one of 19 passing snaps played. There might be something brewing here. If nothing else, he's priced like a punt, setting a low bar for him to clear to provide value while simultaneously freeing up valuable salary to spend elsewhere on your roster.
Panthers Analysis: Christian McCaffrey continues to be a cheat code in his return from injury. Carolina's offense runs through him. Period. He ran 21 times for 98 yards and caught all nine of his targets for 89 yards. His usage is like a workhorse back blended with a receiver, and you only need to use one roster spot for him. He's easily the top running back.
D.J. Moore's Carolina's No. 1 receiver, and they could be stuck in a negative game script as underdogs this week. That makes him an option. Still, I'm not sure I'll actually take the plunge and use him.
Rookie Terrace Marshall Jr. might be on his way to bypassing Robby Anderson in the pecking order for targets. Anderson was used strictly as a vertical threat, salvaging his day with a 57-yard touchdown grab. As for Marshall, he ran 23 routes on 36 dropbacks. That's not optimal. Yet, lining up in the slot at a 79.2% clip should result in mismatches for the 6-foot-3 wideout. Distantly beyond CMC, he's my second-favorite daily fantasy option from the Panthers as a presumably overlooked value play.
Game: Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars
- Spread: DEN -6.0 Points
- Over/Under: 45.0 Points
Broncos Analysis: Teddy Bridgewater was sensational in his first game for the Broncos. He earned Pro Football Focus's third-highest passing grade. He showed mobility, rushing three times for 19 yards and extending plays with his legs. Now, he faces a Jaguars defense that was shredded by Tyrod Taylor for 291 passing yards, two touchdowns, and 40 rushing yards. Taylor's weaponry pales in comparison to those at Bridgewater's disposal. Therefore, I'm expecting Bridgewater to carve them up.
Melvin Gordon showed plenty of juice on a 70-yard touchdown run late in last week's game. Unfortunately, the playing time split was literally 50/50 with second-round pick Javonte Williams. I don't love either as a result of the split workload. Still, the Jaguars were embarrassed last week, Houston's less talented backfield rushed for 120 yards and two touchdowns, adding four grabs for 24 yards and a score. I prefer the cheaper, younger, Williams off a less impressive Week 1, perhaps leading to modest daily fantasy interest from gamers.
Noah Fant's my favorite pass-catching option in the wake of Jerry Jeudy's ankle injury. Somehow, Houston's dreadful tight end room posted a 7-70-1 line on nine targets. Fant ran a route on 27 of 29 passing plays, moving all over the formation (6.9% wide, 34.5% slot, and 55.2% inline). He's a yards-after-catch stud, and I expect him to be an integral part of the passing attack for as long as Denver needs to keep their foot on the accelerator in a possible blowout.
Also, the defense is among the top options at the position this week. Jacksonville's offense was a trainwreck, and I'm convinced Urban Meyer's a donkey who's over his skis in the NFL. Trevor Lawrence's debut had a 2019 Jameis Winston vibe, making two big-time throws (Pro Football Focus's metric) but also sporting the second-highest turnover-worthy play percentage (5.4%). Lawrence's erratic play resulted in three interceptions. If he's forced to play catch-up again this week like I'm expecting, Denver might pile up turnovers and sacks.
Jaguars Analysis: Lawrence's willingness to take chances and his stellar arm talent put D.J. Chark on my radar. Chark's 195 Intended Air Yards ranked second to Tyreek Hill's 222. Also, his average depth of target of 16.3 yards downfield was 17th deepest among players targeted at least three times.
Are you looking for a punt tight end? Enter James O'Shaughnessy as a viable option. Lawrence had 52 dropbacks, and O'Shaughnessy was on the field for 44 of them, running a route on 40. In addition, he played the slot at a 56.8% clip. He was targeted eight times last week, corralling six for 48 yards. I don't have lofty expectations, but he's capable of creating value at his punt salary.
Game: Minnesota Vikings at Arizona Cardinals
- Spread: ARI -3.5 Points
- Over/Under: 50.5 Points
Vikings Analysis: This is one of the most attractive games for stacking for a few reasons. First, the game's over/under is north of 50 points with a small-ish spread of 3.5 points. Second, while I, unfortunately, don't have this year's pace data, the Cardinals played at the second-fastest situation neutral pace last year, according to Sharp Football Stats. The Vikings should get a pace lift this week. Third, their offense is highly concentrated between do-it-ball back Dalvin Cook, touchdown-machine Adam Thielen, and second-year receiver Justin Jefferson.
Cook surpassed 100 yards from scrimmage on 26 touches (20 carries and six receptions) with a touchdown and fumble last week. Thielen hauled in two touchdowns as part of a 9-92-2 line on 10 targets. Finally, Jefferson's coming off a historically excellent rookie season and reeled in five receptions for 71 yards on nine targets. They're all in play this week along with quarterback Kirk Cousins.
Beyond the stars in the offense, Tyler Conklin's a usable piece of cheap exposure to this game after catching all four of his targets for 41 yards last week. He played 46 passing snaps and ran a route on 32, blowing Chris Herndon's nine passing snaps and seven routes out of the water.
Cardinals Analysis: Kyle Murray clowned the Titans last week, passing for 289 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception. He rushed for only 20 yards but scampered in for a score. The sky's the limit, and he'll be one of the most popular quarterbacks if not the most popular option. DeAndre Hopkins clicked on all cylinders with him, catching six of eight targets for 83 yards and two touchdowns. This will probably be the most popular stack this week. However, I love it and won't dissuade you from eating the chalk.
Chase Edmonds split time in the backfield with James Conner, but the latter didn't play any of the valuable passing snaps. Edmonds totaled 105 yards from scrimmage and caught four passes. He's underpriced on DraftKings. I'll likely fade him on FanDuel's half-point PPR platform at a less enticing salary.
Finally, Chrisitan Kirk shined in the opener, securing all five of his targets for 70 yards and two scores. He played a team-high 22 snaps in the slot. Yes, A.J. Green's 32 routes were 10 more than Kirk ran. Still, Green looked like the washed-up, inefficient version of himself we saw on display last year. Kirk could move past him in the passing-game hierarchy as soon as this week. Even if he doesn't, Arizona used three or more receivers on 31 snaps last week. They also used four receiver sets at the highest rate last year. Kirk should be on the field plenty.
Game: Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Spread: TB -12.5 Points
- Over/Under: 51.5 Points
Falcons Analysis: The Falcons had one of the season's worst opening week showings. Maybe the starter's lack of preseason reps is to blame for the awful showing. However, I'm not expecting them to gain their footing as the week's biggest underdogs on the road against the defending Super Bowl champions. Remarkably, it gets worse. The Bucs had extra time to rest and prepare because they played on Thursday Night.
Despite all the negatives, Kyle Pitts should be in the daily fantasy mix. He had the third-highest target share among tight ends in Week 1. The uber-athletic tight end was also used all over the formation, playing 21.6% of passing snaps inline, 27.0% lined up wide, and 51.4% from the slot. After burning gamers as a chalk play last week, some gamers might be unwilling to go back to the well. I'm not in that group.
Buccaneers Analysis: The Bucs opened their Super Bowl Championship defense by hanging 31 points on the Cowboys on Thursday Night Football. Tom Brady earned Pro Football Focus's highest passing grade, and Mike Evans was the only prominent pass-catcher who had a clunker. Could Brady get ahead of a squeaky wheel situation by feeding Evans some more targets this week? I think it's possible. Most importantly, his talent level isn't in question.
Both Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown reached triple-digit receiving yards and found paydirt. Rob Gronkowski looked spry, erupting for an 8-90-2 line on eight targets. Save for his first few games last year after a one-year retirement, Gronk's looked great. All of these guys are excellent options. I mean, is any of this a surprise with the Bucs staked to a massive 32.0 points? The lack of a reliable running game could also provide motivation to keep airing it out late even if they have a sizable lead.
Speaking of sizable leads, how is a double-digit favored defense with as much talent as the Bucs have priced outside the top-five options on FanDuel? I'm not sure, but I'm not looking the gift horse in the mouth.
Game: Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Chargers
- Spread: LAC -3.5 Points
- Over/Under: 54.5 Points
Cowboys Analysis: The Cowboys nearly upset the Buccaneers in the opener. They played at last year's situation-neutral pace. Finally, Dak Prescott picked up where he left off before a season-ending injury in 2020, attempting 58 passes en route to 403 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. He also rushed for 13 yards on four carries.
The game's spread and total are shootout friendly, and it should rival or best the Cardinals versus Vikings for most popular to stack. Amari Cooper (13-139-2 on 16 targets) and CeeDee Lamb (7-104-1 on 15 targets) each smashed last week. Their outlooks are even brighter with Michael Gallup departing early with an injury that will sideline him for a few weeks.
Ezekiel Elliott's coming off an inefficient 2020. Yet, gamers shouldn't put too much stock in his lackluster usage and production in Week 1. He literally had the worst matchup possible, and the Cowboys wisely didn't waste carries against the NFL's top defense against the run. I'm not the biggest Zeke believer for the year. However, this is an eruption spot, making him one of the top running backs on the slate with a path to a voluminous role.
If you're looking for cheap ancillary pieces of this stack, Dalton Schultz and Cedrick Wilson qualify. Schultz outplayed Blake Jarwin last week with similar usage, and Wilson stepped in for an injured Gallup, predominantly playing the slot. I don't suggest going overboard with exposure to Schultz and Wilson, but they could help you differentiate from others stacking this game.
Chargers Analysis: The Chargers are home favorites with a robust implied total of 29.0 points. After an outstanding rookie season, Justin Herbert demonstrated no issues adjusting to the new offense run by Joe Lombardi, passing for 337 yards, one touchdown, and one interception in a 1:00 PM ET game in Washington. The Cowboys are a much less formidable foe defensively.
Austin Ekeler wasn't targeted. However, his receiving chops aren't in question, so he should re-emerge as a passing-game option. Rather than fixate on his lack of passing-game work, I'm choosing to draw encouragement from his usage in scoring territory. According to our red zone stats, Ekeler had only two carries and one target from inside the five last year. He matched his carry total from inside the five last year in Week 1, punching in one for a score. Ekeler's ceiling is cathedral high with his new red zone usage and a high probability of getting back involved in the passing attack.
Jared Cook (5-56-0 on eight targets), Mike Williams (8-82-1 on 12 targets), and Keenan Allen (9-100-0 n 13 targets) all delivered fantasy-relevant showings last week. Cook was used as a jumbo slot, playing 52.8% of the passing snaps aligned there. Allen's a stud whose case for usage doesn't require much explanation.
However, Williams deserves some more discussion after showcasing dramatically different usage in the opener compared to 2020. He primarily lined up wide (90.9% compared to 71.0% for his career) and saw his average depth of target dip from 15.8 yards downfield last year to 10.0 yards downfield last week. The lower volatility targets coupled with the uptick in targets is a boon for him. He's no longer the boom-or-bust option he was as a vertical-only option. He's one of my favorite options in all game types this week.
Game: Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks
- Spread: SEA -6.0 Points
- Over/Under: 54.0 Points
Titans Analysis: I have A.J. Brown listed in the table because he's an elite receiver. However, I'm not convinced I'll actually use him this week. His eight targets were fine enough, but he needed a touchdown to somewhat salvage his day with only four receptions for 49 yards.
My primary concern is that new offensive coordinator Todd Downing might be a dolt. Ryan Tannehill broke out with the Titans utilizing play action at the highest rate (36.4% of dropbacks) among quarterbacks with a minimum of 150 dropbacks last year. He ranked ninth (29.9%) in 2019. Unfortunately, he used play action at the second-lowest rate (11.6%) in Week 1. Truly dumbfounding stuff.
Seahawks Analysis: While the Titans stumbled using a new offense last week, the Seahawks thrived. The expectation for new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron's offense was a quicker passing attack, and Russell Wilson delivered. He took an average of 2.71 seconds to throw last week compared to 2.97 seconds in 2020, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. The change fit Wilson like a glove, and he passed for 254 yards and four touchdowns. Being the quarterback for a team with a gaudy implied total of 30.0 points thrusts Wilson into the upper tier of options at his position this week.
Tyler Lockett got the better of D.K. Metcalf last week. He turned five targets into four receptions for 100 yards and two touchdowns. Metcalf matched him in targets and receptions. However, he turned his looks into only 60 yards and one touchdown. They both have weekly blowup potential, and Tennesse's secondary is ill-equipped to slow them down. Wilson and either or both of his stud pass-catchers make for a high-upside stack I strongly suggest gamers multi-entering GPPs to utilize.
Unfortunately, Chris Carson lost a fumble last week and didn't reach pay dirt. Otherwise, there were plenty of positives to draw from. He carried the ball 16 times for 91 yards, and the other active backs rushed only three times combined. Further, after a career year in the passing game in 2020, he reeled in all three of his targets for 26 yards. Carson's a bell-cow with a projected favorable game script.
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If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
