We’re more than a quarter of the way through the regular season. Thus, we have plenty of info to analyze to make informed lineup decisions. Also, the player pool is naturally reduced this week because of byes and another game in London.
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Week 6 Matchups
Game: Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
Spread: IND -10.0 Points
Over/Under: 43.5 Points
Texans Analysis: I have to tip my cap to Davis Mills for scuffing at Bill Belichick’s track record of flummoxing rookie quarterbacks, carving them up for 312 yards and three touchdowns last week. However, I still don’t have to use any Texans in daily fantasy. Thus, I won’t attach myself to a team with an implied total of well under 20 points.
Colts Analysis: More cap tipping is in order, as Carson Wentz is rounding into form. Still, the Colts are nearly double-digit favorites, setting the table for a run-heavy game script against a bad run defense. According to Football Outsiders, the Texans rank 30th in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). In addition, according to Pro-Football-Reference, Houston's permitted a gaudy 4.72 yards per rush attempt to running backs this season.
When coupling the Texans' giving run defense with Indy's nearly double-digit favorite status, you end up with Jonathan Taylor being a player I'm infatuated with this week. The second-year back is tied for 13th in rushing yards per game (65.4), punching in a pair of scores and adding value through the air by securing 2.8 receptions per game for 39.4 receiving yards per game and a receiving touchdown.
Finally, while I'm fading Wentz, top pass-catcher Michael Pittman Jr. is a good play. His 43 targets are a whopping 15 clear of the second-highest total on the team, resulting in per-game averages of 5.8 receptions and 73.6 receiving yards.
Game: Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
Spread: GB -5.5 Points
Over/Under: 44.5 Points
Packers Analysis: Green Bay's offense is a three-man show featuring Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, and Davante Adams. Rodgers' Week 1 clunker is a distant memory now. He's passed for multiple touchdowns in four straight, producing his most passing yards (344) in the last game. The reigning NFL MVP doesn't add anything on the ground, and I'm not expecting a shootout, so I'm not crazy about using Rodgers. Nevertheless, his four-touchdown performance in Week 2 exemplifies his weekly upside.
I like Jones more than his fellow Aaron in this contest. First, the Packers are favorites, which would award him a positive game script if things go according to plan. Thankfully, Jones' receiving chops (3.4 receptions and 26.4 receiving yards per game with three touchdown receptions) make him game-script-proof, offering security if the game goes sideways for the Packers. In addition, he's averaging a rock-solid 88.2 yards per game from scrimmage. So, unsurprisingly, our lineup optimizer projects him as a top-five running back at DraftKings and FanDuel in Week 6.
However, I saved the best for last from Green Bay's offense. Adams is an unstoppable force. According to Sports Info Solutions, he's first in target share (37.0%) and Intended Air Yards (674). Even with defenses knowing Adams means everything to Green Bay's passing attack, he still leads the NFL in receptions per game (8.4) and receiving yards per game (115.8). Huge shocker, we rank him to be the top scorer at wide receiver at both daily fantasy providers. Further, we project him to be a top-five scorer among all players. Therefore, he should be a lineup-lock for cash games, providing the requisite upside for GPP usage, too.
Bears Analysis: Rookie Justin Fields has made three starts for the Bears. They've scored six points, 24 points, and 20 points in those games. Further, their total yards of offense have been 47, 373, and 252: oof, that's rough. Nevertheless, Damien Williams was placed on the COVID-19/Reserve list on Thursday, so Khalil Herbert should lead headline the backfield, making him an attractive punt who's volume-driven.
Game: Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Football Team
Spread: KC 6.5 Points
Over/Under: 54.5 Points
Chiefs Analysis: This game projects to be a shootout. The Chiefs are on the better end of projections, sporting the week's highest implied total at 31.0 points. Despite sitting below .500, the offense is one of the best in the game, ranking fifth with 30.8 points per game, per Pro-Football-Reference.
The excellence of the offense starts with Patrick Mahomes. He ranks seventh in passing yards per game (298.0) and first in touchdown passes. Additionally, he's capable of adding yards scrambling, amassing 30.6 rushing yards per game. He's our top projected scorer at quarterback this week in a matchup against Washington's 29th-ranked DVOA pass defense.
When Mahomes airs it out, he directs more than half of his passes to the studly duo of Tyreek Hill (28.3% target share, per Sports Info Solutions) and Travis Kelce (22.8%). It's not just volume for Hill, either, as Cheetah ranks fifth in Intended Air Yards (597). Meanwhile, Kelce stands head and shoulders above his peers at tight end. We project Hill to finish as WR2 and Kelce to finish as TE1 this week. Thus, both are excellent daily selections.
This is a game I'm stacking in GPPs. So, I'm interested in ancillary pieces such as Darrel Williams and Mecole Hardman. The former is the top fill-in option for injured Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Williams was already the top back inside the five-yard line for the Chiefs. Last week, he ran a few more routes than pass-catching back Jerick McKinnon and ran the ball five times to only once for McKinnon. Attached to roughly a touchdown favorite, he could receive a positive game script, too.
Meanwhile, Hardman's staved off addition Josh Gordon for now. The unrefined speedster ran 45 routs last week, setting new season-highs for targets (12), receptions (nine), and receiving yards (76). He's not a safe play by any stretch of the imagination, but he's cheap exposure to Kansas City's week-high implied total who's worth a look in GPPs.
Football Team Analysis: Taylor Heinicke is producing fantasy-friendly lines as Washington's starter. In four starts, he's averaging 271.5 passing yards and 27.5 rushing yards per game, scoring seven passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown. As nifty as those numbers are, they might represent the floor against Kansas City's 31st DVOA pass defense. Further, according to Sharp Football Stats, Kansas City's allowed the seventh-highest average explosive pass rate (11%).
The Chiefs are also getting gashed for explosive runs, allowing the second-highest average explosive run rate (16%). So, unfortunately, there's a game-script risk to using Antonio Gibson. Regardless, if Washington can hang around, he has a high-upside matchup against the last-ranked DVOA run defense.
Meanwhile, if the Chiefs race out to a big lead, pass-catching back J.D. McKissic has appeal on DratKings' full-point point-per-reception (PPR) platform. Yet, my favorite receiving options from the Football Team are No. 1 receiver Terry McLaurin and fill-in tight end Ricky Seals-Jones. McLaurin's an air-yardage monster, ranking eighth with 566 Intended Air Yards. The third-year wideout has turned his looks into 5.8 receptions and 80.0 receiving yards per game, scoring three receiving touchdowns. He's also consistently the apple of Heinicke's eye, reaching double-digit targets in three of four starts by Heinicke.
Seals-Jones stepped in for an injured Logan Thomas last week. He hauled in five of eight targets for 41 receiving yards. However, I'm even more encouraged he was second among tight ends in routes last week. I like Seals-Jones on FanDuel and love him on DraftKings, and our optimizer is in alignment, awarding him the eighth-best value score at tight end on FanDuel and best value score on DraftKings.
Game: Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants
Spread: LAR -9.5 Points
Over/Under: 48.5 Points
Rams Analysis: The Rams had an extended break entering this week after playing in last week's Thursday Night Football contest, and it gets better! The Giants are terrible against the run (26th in DVOA) and pass (22nd in DVOA). Big Blue will have their hands full with the Rams, as they're averaging 28.2 points per game.
Despite some miscues the last few weeks, Matthew Stafford is excelling in his first year on the Rams. He ranks third in passing yards per game (317.4) and tied for fifth in passing touchdowns (12). Stafford's upside is GPP worthy, but the game's large spread favoring the Rams creates a risk they lean on the running game to salt the game away.
If you're rolling the dice on Stafford in GPPs, his top stacking partner is Cooper Kupp. Kupp is tied for second in receptions per game (7.4), third in receiving yards per game (104.6), and tied for second in touchdown receptions (five).
However, Kupp is not the only receiver gamers can use. Robert Woods busted out last week for 12 receptions and 150 receiving yards on 14 targets. Finally, Van Jefferson and DeSean Jackson are risky value plays with upside attached to the Rams' robust implied total. Jefferson's fourth on the team in routes (139), not too far behind Woods (158), and tight end Tyler Higbee (140). As a result, he has the highest value score for receivers at DraftKings. And, even though D-Jax has run only 51 routes in 2021, his average depth of target (aDot) of 21.8 yards and 30.7 yards per reception encapsulates his big-play ability.
Finally, Darrell Henderson Jr. is my favorite option on the heavily-favored Rams. Big Blue is getting trounced for 4.84 yards per rush attempt by running backs this year. Also, the third-year back is balling out this year, averaging 96.0 yards from scrimmage and 17.5 touches per game, scoring three touchdowns to boot. So gamers looking to differentiate from others using Henderson in GPPs can pay up for the Rams defense in a stack.
Giants Analysis: New York's offense is a mash unit. Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay will almost certainly miss this contest. Meanwhile, Daniel Jones is a total question mark as he works through the NFL's concussion protocol, and Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton are trending toward returning from injury.
The other noteworthy player on the injury report is the guy in the table above, standout rookie receiver Kadarius Toney. Obviously, I prefer Jones plays if using Toney in daily fantasy this week. Nevertheless, I won't rule out using him if Mike Glennon is under center. One week after posting a 6-78-0 line on nine targets in Week 4, he kicked things up for a 10-189-0 line on 13 targets and one reception for seven yards last week. The dynamic rookie has also shown the ability to win from the slot and aligned wide. Thus, even if Shepard reprises his slot role this week, Toney is capable of playing and doing so well.
Game: Cincinnati Bengals at Detroit Lions
Spread: CIN -3.5 Points
Over/Under: 47.5 Points
Bengals Analysis: Joe Burrow's rookie season was cut short by a knee injury last year. Thankfully, he's not showing signs of any ill effects, and he's heating up. Over his previous two games, he's averaging 314.5 passing yards per game, tossing four touchdowns and two interceptions. The first pick in the 2020 NFL Draft squares off with Detroit's soft pass defense (27th in pass defense DVOA). So, he should pick them apart with relative ease.
Also, Detroit's coughed up the highest average explosive pass rate (15%) in 2021. Their propensity to surrender explosive plays lays out perfectly for all-world rookie wideout Ja'Marr Chase to exploit. According to Pro Football Focus, out of 69 receivers targeted at least 20 times, Chase ranks fifth in yards per route run (3.00 Y/RR). Further, he has a 17.8 aDot. So, he's an elite vertical threat facing a defense that can't contain explosive pass plays. In other words, it's a match made in heaven.
Gamers playing in GPPs can consider pivoting to second-year receiver Tee Higgins as a contrarian pivot. He has a more modest 8.9 aDot, but he showcased vertical ability last year with a 12.9 aDot. Higgins is also a skyscraper-like target standing 6-foot-4, making him an appealing red-zone option. According to our red zone stats, Higgins caught six touchdowns on 11 targets in 2020 and has two touchdowns on a team-high three red-zone targets this year.
Running back Joe Mixon gutted out his ankle injury last week, playing only 28% of the team's snaps. If news suggests he's trending toward playing more this week, he's in the GPP mix in a cushy matchup. The Lions rank 28th in rush defense DVOA, and they've yielded the fourth-most DraftKings, and FanDuel points to running backs this year.
Finally, the Bengals are road favorites against a lackluster offense. So, they're a usable DFS defense.
Lions Analysis: D'Andre Swift isn't going to wrest backfield duties completely away from Jamaal Williams. Nevertheless, he has the more valuable role as their pass-catching back. Among running backs, Swift ranks second in routes (136), targets (34), and receiving yards (252), and first in receptions (29). Even sharing the backfield with Williams, he's averaging 38.0 rushing yards per game with a pair of scores on the ground and one through the air. Swift's pass-catching role and the negative game script help him net the third-highest value score among running backs at DraftKings and the seventh-highest value score at FanDuel.
Also, while I'm not crazy about rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown, he's helped ease the sting of T.J. Hockenson's struggles while playing through injury the last couple of weeks. St. Brown has corralled 13 of 16 targets for 135 scoreless yards. I can comfortably say I'll fade him on FanDuel, but DraftKings' full-point PPR scoring and his modest salary make him a potential option there.
Game: Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens
Spread: BAL -2.5 Points
Over/Under: 52.0 Points
Chargers Analysis: I was wrong last week. I thought the Chargers and Browns might fall short of lofty shootout expectations. Instead, they exceeded them by winning a 47-42 shootout. This week, they travel to Baltimore to square off with a Ravens team that hung 31 points on the Colts in a Monday Night Football overtime win in Week 5. As a result, oddsmakers are projecting another shootout, as you can see checking the spread and over/under above.
No worries for the Chargers. Justin Herbert is equipped to hang points in bunches. The second-year quarterback ranks fourth in passing yards per game (315.2) and tied for third in passing touchdowns (13). Further, he's drawing a defense that just permitted 402 passing yards and two touchdowns to only 35 pass attempts to ho-hum Carson Wentz and his underwhelming collection of pass-catchers last week. Thus, I'm expecting Herbert to light Baltimore's pass defense up with his embarrassment of riches in the passing attack.
Mike Williams and Keenan Allen have both eclipsed 50 targets thus far this year. Allen's rock-solid with 6.8 receptions and 73.8 receiving yards per game. However, Williams is among the game's breakout stars thanks to a role change resulting in a shallower depth of target and surge in targets. He's averaging 6.2 receptions and 94.2 receiving yards per game with six touchdowns.
Jared Cook is third on the team in targets (26), and he's averaging 3.4 receptions and 42.0 receiving yards per game. Sure, those numbers aren't exciting. Still, the bar is low for providing value at tight end, so he's a viable option.
Fourth on the team in targets (25) is do-it-all back Austin Ekeler. The pleasant surprise of Ekeler gobbling up goal-line work has helped him punch in four rushing touchdowns and three receiving touchdowns. He's also rolling for 108.6 yards per game from scrimmage and averaging 4.6 receptions per game. Finally, Ekeler's elite receiving skills pose a problem for a Ravens' defense that's permitted the second-most receiving yards (342) to running backs this season. The electric multi-faceted back is one of the highest-ceiling running backs on every slate he plays, this one included.
Ravens Analysis: The Ravens are taking flight this year. According to Sharp Football Stats, in 2020, when the offensive scoring margin was neutral (ranging from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points), the Ravens passed at a league-low 45% clip. This year, that mark has surged to 52%.
Lamar Jackson is rewarding the team for dialing up the passing attack, setting new highs for completion percentage (67.1%), passing yards per game (303.8), and Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (8.24 ANY/A). He's going beyond exceeding his personal bests, leading the NFL with 13.6 yards per completion. But, of course, the fleet-footed quarterback is also tearing teams apart at the seams with his legs, averaging 8.2 rushing yards per game. In summation, he's going nuclear. So, yes, he's a great daily selection this week.
His top two options in the passing attack, speedster Marquise Brown and superstar tight end Mark Andrews are superb stacking partners with Jackson or excellent standalone plays. Hollywood has caught at least one touchdown in four games, secured six receptions in three, and reached triple-digit receiving yards twice in 2021. Of course, his numbers would be even more remarkable if not for a case of the dropsies in Week 3. Still, he's tied for seventh among receivers targeted at least 20 times this year with 2.70 Y/RR.
Teammate Andrews primarily operated in Hollywood's shadow early this year. However, he's going off lately, besting 100 yards receiving in two of his last three games. He's caught five passes or more in four straight, and his best game of the year was last week, tallying an 11-147-2 line on 13 targets with a pair of two-point conversions. He also ranks in the top five across the board in meaningful categories among tight ends, checking in fifth in routes (169), third in targets (36), second in receptions (29), and first in receiving yards. Our lineup optimizer loves Andrews this week, ranking him as TE3. Further, he has the second-highest value score at tight end on DraftKings while leading the way at FanDuel.
Finally, Sammy Watkins is on the injury report and not practicing after hurting his hamstring on Monday night. However, rookie Rashod Bateman is practicing for the third week and could be activated from the injured reserve for his NFL debut. If Watkins is inactive and Bateman is activated, I'm keeping Bateman in mind on DraftKings in GPPs at the minimum salary.
Game: Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers
Spread: MIN -2.0 Points
Over/Under: 45.5 Points
Vikings Analysis: I don't endorse spending Justin Jefferson's salary for cash games. However, he's so good, and he's a nifty pivot off of other elite receivers in his salary range in GPPs. Among receivers targeted at least 20 times this year, he ranks 17th with 2.33 Y/RR. Further, he ranks 11th in Intended Air Yards (518). However, the second-year receiver is converting his air yards into steady production, reaching at least 65 yards and five receptions in every game, scoring a touchdown in three, and besting 100 yards twice.
As for the backfield, I'm only using one of these backs if the other is inactive. Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison can do it all. Unfortunately, they're both a little banged up. However, Cook was a full participant in practice on Thursday, and Mattison was a limited participant. If both are healthy, the team might exercise caution and share backfield duties hoping to get both healthy headed into their Week 8 bye. So, I'm fading Minnesota's running backs if they both suit up this week.
Panthers Analysis: Banged-up running backs is the overriding theme of this game. Unfortunately, Christian McCaffrey took a step back from participating in Wednesday's practice in a limited capacity to sitting out Thursday's practice. Thus, I'm expecting him to sit this one out, leaving D.J. Moore as the only member of the Panthers I'm interested in using. In his first year playing with Sam Darnold, Moore's a target hog, ranking sixth with a 28.7% target share. Further, he ranks directly in front of the aforementioned Jefferson in yards per route run, ranking 16th (2.35 Y/RR).
Game: Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns
Spread: CLE -3.0 Points
Over/Under: 49.0
Cardinals Analysis: The Cardinals have the unenviable task of traveling across the country to play in the 1:00 PM ET slot. I mention that because Kyler Murray's touchdown production has plummeted under those conditions. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Murray's thrown only 12 touchdowns and rushed for four in 11 early games. Comparatively, he's thrown 35 and ran for 12 in 22 games in the afternoon, and passed for nine, and rushed for two in four games late. Also, take note of the team's implied total of only 23.0 points. Yes, Murray's so good he could leave me with egg on my face for suggesting fading. Nevertheless, I'd instead use the other stud high-priced quarterbacks or save money at the position with a cheaper quarterback.
Still, if you want exposure to this high-octane offense, Christian Kirk and Rondale Moore have appeal. The team lost starting tight end Maxx Williams to injury. So, even though the Cardinals are running four-receiver personnel groupings at the highest rate this year, they might utilize it more frequently from now on. Also, Moore appears to be an ascending talent, running 20 routes last week compared to 18 for Kirk. The electric rookie receiver ranks third with 3.11 Y/RR, so if he plays more, he'll have a chance to explode.
As for Kirk, five targets on his 18 routes alleviates concern about the underwhelming route total. Additionally, with a 13.0 aDot in 2021, he's used in a way that can take advantage of Cleveland, allowing the 11th-highest average explosive pass rate (10%).
Browns Analysis: Cleveland's offense runs through their elite one-two punch in the backfield. Unfortunately for the visiting Cardinals, they struggle mightily with explosive running plays. As a result, they've coughed up the highest percentage average explosive run rate (19%). Further, it's not even close, with Kansas City's 16% mark a whopping three percent behind the Browns.
Chubb and Hunt are tailor-made to gash the Cardinals. According to Pro Football Focus, Chubb's tied for second with 14 runs of 10-plus yards, and Hunt's tied for seventh with nine. Therefore, I prefer to spend more to roster Chubb. However, Hunt is a great option as well.
Game: Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos
Spread: DEN -3.5 Points
Over/Under: 44.5 Points
Raiders Analysis: I nearly suggested fading the Raiders entirely in the wake of Jon Gruden resigning and amidst their two-game slide. However, we project Waller to score the second-most points among tight ends, and he's carved up Vic Fangio's defense the last two years. Moreover, Waller has caught six or more passes and reached at least 70 yards in three of four games against the Fangio-led Broncos. Thus, there's a case for using him. Still, I'm inclined to spend more for Kelce, enjoy some savings with Andrews, or spin even lower for a bargain tight end.
Broncos Analysis: The Broncos have a talented defense and are favored at home against an offense that's stumbling. Thus, I like their defense for DFS purposes. Additionally, pass-catching options Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant offer upside. Sutton ranks fourth in Intended Air Yards (618). However, his 17.1 aDot makes him prone to ups and downs.
Meanwhile, Fant was unleashed for a season-high 38 routes one week after setting a season-high with 37. Over the last two weeks, he's converted 14 targets into nine receptions for 66 yards. The targets and routes portend to bigger production.
Game: Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots
Spread: DAL -3.5 Points
Over/Under: 50.5 Points
Cowboys Analysis: The Cowboys have a hearty implied total of 27.0 points on the road against the Patriots. Further, I'm more bullish on their outlook, thinking they might boat race the Patriots. Regardless, this profiles as an Ezekiel Elliott outing.
First, the Cowboys are favorites. Second, there's a mismatch in the trenches. According to Football Outsiders, Dallas' offensive line ranks first in Adjusted Line Yards. Additionally, Pro Football Focus grades them first in run blocking. Meanwhile, the Patriots rank 22nd in rush defense DVOA.
Yes, Dak Prescott may carve up New England's secondary. Still, I'm fading him, and his pass-catchers since the Cowboys seem content leaning on their running attack when the opportunity is there.
Finally, the Cowboys are one of my favorite defenses this week when factoring in salary. Dallas ranks second in turnovers (12), and New England's underwhelming offense ranks 26th with only 19.2 points per game. They're going to struggle to keep up with the Cowboys, and if rookie Mac Jones is in predictable passing situations, Dallas can add to their excellent turnover total.
Patriots Analysis: I'm fading the Patriots. However, Hunter Henry's a defensible option at under $4,000 on DraftKings. He ranks second on the Patriots in receptions and receiving yards per game with 4.0 and 43.2, respectively. Further, he's run 145 routes compared to only 71 for Jonnu Smith. Thus, he's created a massive gap between his competition at the position.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
