Is the NFL telling itself to hold my beer? I ask because after sending the Falcons and Jets to London for a Sunday morning game last week, they’re sending the struggling Florida duo of the Dolphins and Jaguars there this week. Thankfully, even bad teams can provide entertainment. In addition, it’s an island game that gives us a chance to make some money in daily fantasy football. However, to do that, you’ll need to roster the right players. The thorough examination of both teams below should shed some light on who to consider using.
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Game: Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars
Spread: MIA -3.0 Points
Over/Under: 47.0 Points
Dolphins Analysis: Injuries are a central theme for the Dolphins on this single-game slate. First, Tua Tagovailoa is expected back this week. Second, DeVante Parker's status is more uncertain after missing last week's contest with a hamstring and shoulder issue.
Tagovailoa made one start this year against the Patriots before getting chased from the second game against the Bills after only four passes because of injury. He completed 16 of 27 passes in his lone start for 202 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. He also scored a rushing touchdown with one rushing yard. In hindsight, his mediocre performance is even more damning after rookie Davis Mills carved up the Patriots last week.
Thankfully, he gets the softest possible matchup in his return. According to Football Outsiders, the Jaguars rank dead last in pass defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Still, I don't fault gamers for choosing to invest in Miami's pass-catchers rather than the trigger man.
Now, let's look at Tua's distribution of passes on his 31 attempts. He shot a team-high eight in Jaylen Waddle's direction, seven to Parker, six to Myles Gaskin, three to Salvon Ahmed, and two to Mike Gesicki. Waddle and Gaskin tied for the team-high with five receptions, with the former tallying the second-most receiving yards (74) and the latter recording the third-most receiving yards (27). Meanwhile, Parker led the team with 81 receiving yards and 84 air yards.
Unfortunately, Gesicki was unable to corral either of his targets. Nevertheless, he's used as a jumbo wideout, so I'm all aboard using him this week. According to Pro Football Focus, Gesicki's run a route on 154 of 170 passing snaps, aligning in the slot 123 times, wide 38 times, and inline only nine times.
Beyond Gesicki, I'm also willing to roll the dice on Parker if he's active. However, if he's out, Preston Williams is a useful value option. Last week, he hauled in three of five targets for 60 yards. So, he's coming off of his best game of the year.
Still, I like Waddle and Gaskin more. In addition to Waddle's usage in Week 1 with Tua providing reason or optimism, the two have chemistry from playing together in college.
As for Gaskin, he's driven season-long fantasy gamers insane this year. However, he's coming off an excellent game in which he rushed five times for 25 yards and reeled in all 10 of his targets for 74 yards and two touchdowns. Further, according to our snap counts, Gaskin set a season-high by playing 69% of the team's snaps, well ahead of the 20% Ahmed played and the 0% Malcolm Brown played. Gaskin's range of outcomes spans from falling back into the same unpredictable committee to earning a repeat of the bulk of the workload after last week's showing. In other words, he's a volatile pick.
Jaguars Analysis: Urban Meyer is unquestionably a donkey, but he's at least wisely allowed James Robinson to eat. Over the last three weeks, the second-year back has scrimmage yardage total of 134, 76, and 147, touching the ball at least 19 times in all three games. The game's spread is small, and the Dolphins are dreadful defending the run, so I expect him to be force-fed in this contest. Miami's run defense ranks 21st in DVOA, and, according to Pro-Football-Reference, running backs are gashing them for 4.58 yards per rush attempt. In addition, Miami's tied for the fifth-most receptions (33) allowed to backs, and they're tied for the eight-most receiving yards (246) allowed to the position. As a result, this is a smash spot for J-Rob.
Trevor Lawrence is also positioned for another stellar showing. The Dolphins rank 23rd in pass defense DVOA, and they're struggling to generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The rookie quarterback has completed over 70% of his passes the last two weeks, averaging 238.5 passing yards and 32.0 rushing yards per game, throwing one touchdown, one interception, and rushing for a pair of scores in those games. So I'm firing him up on this single-game slate.
Last week, we received our first look at a post-injured-D.J. Chark offense. Predictably, Marvin Jones Jr. led the team in passing snaps (39) and routes (33). In addition, the veteran receiver leads the team in targets (36) and receptions (21). Thus, he's the No. 1 receiver. Unfortunately, his hot start hasn't lasted. Over the last two weeks, he's sported lines of 3-24-0 and 1-25-0 on three targets and five targets. Because he's the top option and has a few rock-solid games on his resume this year, he's certainly a defensible option. However, I prioritize spending on Robinson and Lawrence.
I'm also fading Laviska Shenault Jr. after last week's shocking usage. Despite Chark's injury, the second-year receiver ranked only fourth on the team in routes (23). Jones, Dan Arnold (30), and Jamal Agnew (26) ran more routes. Additionally, Tavon Austin nipped at Shenault's heels with 19 routes.
Arnold's my favorite option among Lawrence's pass-catchers. He was acquired via trade before Jacksonville's Week 4 contest, and his role grew last week. He's used as a big wideout, pass blocking on only two snaps, aligning wide six times, inline 11, and in the slot 17 times last week. Further, he led the team with 64 receiving yards, tying for the team lead in targets (eight) and receptions (six) with Agnew.
Therefore, Agnew's an enticing option as well. Finally, Austin ranked sixth on the team in routes, but he was fed five targets. So, it appears Meyer emphasized getting him the ball when he was on the field. For his part, Austin was decent, hauling in all five targets for 54 yards.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
