Week 9 will be remembered as one of the more unpredictable slates of action in recent memory, filled with numerous upsets and outlier performances. The Buffalo Bills, widely conspired the cream of the crop of the AFC, lost to a Jacksonville team that had just one win in the past year and a half.
The Cowboys entered their Week 9 tilt as heavy home favorites against the Broncos. Dak Prescott returned to the field after missing a week with a calf injury, and the Dallas defense looked to be the top unit in the NFC East. Instead of an easy win at AT&T Stadium, the Broncos dominated the Cowboys, leaving most of the skill position players on Dallas with little or no fantasy production.
The ugly week affected fantasy kickers as well. Half of the most widely-rostered kickers on Yahoo scored seven or fewer fantasy points, including zero points for Greg Zuerlein and negative two for Mason Crosby.
It was an ugly week across the board. Hopefully, you were able to withstand the carnage and come out of the rubble with a victory.
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Week 9 Stud Performances from widely available kickers
Brandon McManus (DEN) @ Cowboys: 40% roster percentage on Yahoo
The big-legged kicker for the Broncos took advantage of the surprising game script and finished tied for second with Matt Gay of the Rams. Even with a missed field goal and a missed extra point, McManus scored twelve fantasy points with an ECR of 21 entering the week. His K Score of 55 this week at home against the Eagles is not great, and I am not looking at McManus as someone to add on waivers.
Matthew Wright (JAX) vs. Buffalo: 0% roster percentage on Yahoo
Nobody rostered Wright this week, and rightfully so, as this game’s game script had the makings of a blowout win by the Bills. Based on his K Score, I had Wright ranked 15th overall, compared to 26th by ECR, as the Bills boast the second-best red zone offense and the Jacks ranked 17th in yards per game. While the K Score proved better than ECR, I would not recommend adding Wright this week. Jacksonville will head north to take on a Colts offense that is likely to run wild on Sunday.
Week 9 Dud Performances from widely-rostered kickers
Greg Zuerlein (DAL) vs. Denver: 90% roster percentage on Yahoo
When your team gets punched in the face and falls behind early, you tend not to have the option to kick a bunch of field goals. Game script is a critical part of predicting fantasy success for all skill position players, including kickers. When a game script goes so sideways, and a kicker does not have a chance even to kick an extra point, you just tip your cap and move on to the next week. Zuerlein had 34 combined fantasy points in his previous three games. The Cowboys will bounce back, and so will Greg the Leg.
Week 10 Kicker Rankings
*Red Zone Efficiency is based on the inverse of how well the kicker's offense does in the red zone. For example, the Bills rank 20th in red-zone efficiency; therefore, Tyler Bass has an RZ EFF score of 12. The lower number, the better for kickers, as playing on a team that struggles to score touchdowns in the red zone equates to more field goal opportunities.
**The K Score is the sum of a player's opponent red zone, the red zone efficiency of his offense, and the overall rank of his respective team in terms of total yards. A low score indicates that a kicker has variables working in his favor for a good fantasy kicking performance.
Kicker rankings are based on numerous factors, including matchups, Vegas lines, and score projections, weather conditions, the ability of a kicker's team offense and their ability to move the ball into field goal range, offensive red zone efficiency, and how well the opposing defense limits touchdowns in the red zone. These factors are a guide but not a definitive way to predict kicking success, as other variables and negative game scripts significantly impact the outcome.
Based on the variables mentioned above, the following two kickers are players ranked outside of the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who could be an excellent play Week 9.
Chase McLaughlin (CLE) @ New England 19% roster percentage on Yahoo
Call me a glutton for punishment. I have included McLaughlin on my recommendation list on two separate occasions this season, only for him to deliver a less than impressive week. To make matters worse, the following week, McLaughlin turned out a top-4 game for fantasy owners.
I trust the process and stick with McLaughlin and his K Score of 28 this week on the road against the Patriots. I project this to be a low-scoring game with both kickers finishing in the top 7.
Mason Crosby (GB) vs. Seattle: 52% roster percentage on Yahoo
Crosby was the worst kicker of the week, with two field goals blocked by the Chiefs in a windy and ugly game at Arrowhead. Based on last week, it may sound crazy to have him on my list of sleeper picks, but his K Score of 39 indicates a bounce back, assuming Aaron Rodgers is starting for the Packers.
Prediction Review
Each week I suggest two kickers ranked outside the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who I believe will be solid performers based on the variables described in the K Score section. The following is a review of my picks from the previous week to see where I was successful and where I missed the mark.
Michael Badgley (IND) vs. NY Jets: 4% roster percentage on Yahoo
ECR Rank: 17
My Rank: 8
Week 8 Finish: T9
With nine fantasy points on the week, Badgley proved to be a strong play at home against the Jets. The lopsided game script created by Jonathan Taylor and the Colts offense limited Badgley to just one field goal, but a nice floor of six extra points helped make the veteran kicker a nice play.
Randy Bullock (TEN) @ LA Rams 19% roster percentage on Yahoo
ECR Rank: 15
My Rank: 11
Week 8 Finish: T25
The game script in the Tennessee game turned out to be a surprise, as the Rams struggled on offense and the Titans jumped out to an early lead. My projections had this as a closer game, with Bullock getting at least two field-goal tries. Unfortunately, this was a swing and a miss.
Waiver Wired
Top Add
Daniel Carlson (LV) vs. KC: 64% roster percentage on Yahoo
The Raiders host the Chiefs on Sunday in what should be a great opportunity for Carlson to have a big fantasy performance. His K Score of 40 indicates he should be a top-10 play, and the Chiefs offense is not running on all cylinders, which mitigates the threat of a blowout. Carlson has a floor of seven fantasy points in all but two games, making him a safe play as well.
Other players to consider
- Nick Folk (NE) vs. Cleveland: 61% roster percentage on Yahoo
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Andrew Swanson is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive or follow him @FFtoday_Andy.
