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Dynasty Rookie Prospect Profile: Garrett Wilson (2022 Fantasy Football)

Dynasty Rookie Prospect Profile: Garrett Wilson (2022 Fantasy Football)

Garrett Wilson has been projected as a first-round prospect since the early stages of this NFL Draft cycle, and he’s deserving of the acclaim. As a former five-star prospect exiting high school, he’s no stranger to hype blow horn getting cranked up to 11. Wilson checks several boxes from an analytical standpoint, but none of them will blow your socks off. He leaves Ohio State with a 50th percentile college dominator (per while also ranking in the 59th percentile or higher in yards per reception (67th, 16.0), target share (78th, 26.3%), and breakout age (59th, 20.1).

These numbers are all more than sufficient when you also factor in he was earning targets against two players that project to be future first-rounders over the last two seasons. In 2020 he garnered a 25.7% target share playing alongside Chris Olave (26.2% target share). Last season he saw a 20.6% target share with Olave (20.4%) still in the fold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (22.7%) also stepping up as the team’s leading receiver. While he wasn’t the overwhelming target hog in either year, this should still give us warm and fuzzies when projecting his ability to command looks against fellow NFL talent at the next level.

Garrett Wilson Draft Profile

Position WR
School Ohio State
Height 6’0″
Weight 183
40-Yard Dash 4.38
2021 Age 21
Class JR
Recruit. Stars 5

2022 NFL Draft Projection: First Round

Garrett Wilson College Statistics

Year Games played Targets (Target %) Receptions Receiving Yards Yards per Reception Catch Rate Receiving Touchdowns
2019 13 41 (10.1%) 30 432 14.4 73.1% 5
2020 8 63 (28.0%) 43 723 16.8 68.2% 6
2021 11 103 (20.8%) 70 1058 15.1 68.0% 12


Garrett Wilson Dynasty Fantasy Analysis

Garrett Wilson’s NFL offensive coordinator will salivate when scheming the ball into his hands with his versatile skill set. Wilson has extensive experience working from the slot and as an outside receiver during his Ohio State career. He was utilized on screens and as a rusher on jet sweeps with impressive results. Since 2020 he only saw six rushing attempts, but he turned them into 143 rushing yards (23.8 per attempt). This is an area that we could see him deployed in more in the NFL, depending on his landing spot.

The theme for anyone drawing up a scheme around Wilson should be to get the ball in his hands and let him work. His elusiveness in space and after the catch will be an instant jolt of electricity for any team. He has an immediate silky smooth second gear once he hits the second and third levels of a defense. Last year (per PFF), he ranked 12th in missed tackles forced and eight yards after the catch (13.6, minimum ten targets) on targets behind the line of scrimmage. His next quarterback will enjoy the easy completions and big-play ability he offers on them.

Among FBS wide receivers with 50 or more targets (*Statistics referenced per PFF*):
Year Formation alignment Yards per route run (Rank)
2019* 91.7% wide 1.97 (131st of 290)
2020 73.4% slot (26.6% wide) 3.04 (18th of 146)
2021 82.9% wide 3.00 (17th of 251)

* Only 41 targets in this season. Rank when compared to wideouts in the sample*

Wilson wins from the slot and outside with speed and field scorching footwork as a pure receiving prospect. This isn’t to diminish his strength after the catch, as he can break arm tackles with the best of them, but his speed and quick feet that eat erase tackle angles in the blink of an eye. These are all feathers in his cap, but he also has facets of his game he’s going to need to improve to reach his ceiling in the NFL. While he relies on nimble feet to gain separation in his routes, he also needs to strengthen his hands and upper body during his releases. Corners with the prerequisite speed to hang with him in the NFL that are also physical could give him issues from the outset as he continues to develop this part of his game.

His skill as a separator is also needed because he’s not an overly strong player at the catch point when contested. He also did suffer from the occasional concentration drop. In his three seasons at Ohio State (per PFF), he could only reel in 48.5% (33 targets) of his contested targets. He’ll need to improve here if he will be a stable threat when the field condenses in the red zone. Unless an offensive coordinator plans to draw up rushing attempts or screens for him near the goal line, his touchdown totals yearly could be modest unless he can break off some long scores. 43.4% of Wilson’s collegiate receiving touchdowns came on plays of 20+ yards. There’s still another level to Wilson’s game that we could see him actualize as an NFL player.

Player Comp – Santonio Holmes

Holmes was an immediate producer at the NFL level averaging 958.7 receiving yards over the first four years of his career. During his nine-year career, he excelled after the catch with 5.5 YAC per reception.

Landing Spot and Outlook

Team Drafted: New York Jets
Pick Selected: No. 10 overall

Garrett Wilson’s yards after the catch ability will be a godsend for Zach Wilson. His production profile against top competition at Ohio State is impeccable. He’s been top 30 in Yards per route run in each of the last two seasons (minimum 50 targets, per PFF). This team needed to add talent around their young franchise quarterback, and this accomplishes that goal. Elijah Moore and Wilson give Zach Wilson a versatile pairing to pepper with targets. Wilson’s talent isn’t in question, but his dynasy ceiling could be capped unless Zach Wilson can take a step forward in year two.


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