Dynasty Rookie Prospect Profile: Sam Howell (2022 Fantasy Football)

Sam Howell arrived in Chapel Hill as a decorated four-star prospect. He set the North Carolina high school total yards record (17.036) and was the 93rd ranked national prospect and 3rd amongst dual-threat quarterbacks (per 247Sports). Howell chucked for 13,415 yards (145:41 passing touchdown to interception ratio) while also rushing for 3,621 yards on the ground. He had back-to-back 1,300 rushing yard seasons to close the door on the high school realm. Before committing to North Carolina, he entertained offers from Florida State, Alabama, Arkansas, Clemson, Florida and Georgia.

After a banner 2020 season, Howell’s star has dimmed some. He’s currently projected as a second-round pick after a ho-hum Senior Bowl showing and predraft process. So, in a “down year” for quarterbacks, can Howell walk away as the best of the bunch in the next two to three years? First, let’s find out how his skills translate to the NFL.

Sam Howell Draft Profile

* Recruit stars via 247Sports

Sam Howell College Statistics

Sam Howell Dynasty Fantasy Analysis

Looking over Sam Howell’s passing accuracy stats, 2020 jumps off the page. With a talented supporting cast, including Javonte Williams, Michael Carter, Dazz Newsome, and Dyami Brown, he posted top 13 finishes in adjusted completion rate and big-time throw rate while also finishing with the seventh-lowest turnover-worthy play rate. However, outside of this standout season, his rankings in each of the three categories were above average to mundane. This brings to light that Howell is more of a sum of the parts quarterback than a rising tide that raises all boats.

Glancing at his passing resume to all three levels of the field, we find a similar result from the macro stats previously mentioned. In 2020 he ranked top 27 in each quarterback accuracy sampling, but outside of that season, we only see him scrape inside this grouping in the short and intermediate areas of the field. On film, Howell possesses average arm strength with the ability to make all the throws necessary for the NFL. He can zip throws into zone coverage in the second level that stands out, but his deep ball is only adequate. His ball placement on downfield throws is fine, but there are times when wide receivers are left waiting on the pass instead of the ball hitting them in stride.

Howell does flash the ability to go through his progressions, but he needs to grow in this area to be successful at the next level. At North Carolina, there were a bunch of predetermined reads in the passing attack, but Howell also displays the tendency to lock onto his first read too often. In 2020 he succeeded (or got by) by doing this with better receiving talent around him. When your first read wide receiver is more adept at getting open and open early, it will hide this tendency for Howell.

Last year he struggled with this, often forcing the ball to the wideout despite double or tight coverage, so you see the dip in his accuracy stats and overall results. Howell will need to come off his first look much quicker, with the NFL game being a tick faster. Even when he did get to his second option, many times, he was a second or two slow. Howell would be left patting the ball or hesitating as if he didn’t trust what he was seeing until the receiver was streaking open. By the time he would grip and fire, the window of opportunity in his sight would close. He’ll need to throw with more anticipation in the NFL because there will be fewer “see it throw it” opportunities against more complex coverages and better corners.

The indecision with his field vision is also reflected in his pressured passing stats (per PFF). In 2020 (among quarterbacks with at least 50 pressured dropbacks), Howell was 14th in pressure-adjusted completion rate and first in pressured yards per attempt. In his two other seasons under center, he ranked 34th and 66th in pressured adjusted completion rate and 24th and 45th in pressured yards per attempt. He was quick to get the ball out of his hands on film versus the rush in 2020, but last year he would drift in the pocket, pat the ball, or look to take off and run more.

With the losses in the receiving department to the NFL from 2020 to 2021, the North Carolina offensive design and Howell’s preferences led to him picking up more easy yards with his legs. His high school resume forecasted this was in his bag of tricks all along, but we didn’t see it until 2021. Howell ranked 39th in the nation among all players in rushing yards, 46th in rushing touchdowns (11), and 12th in missed tackles forced (65, per PFF). He displays decent wiggle in the open field and some tackle-breaking ability, but with this 5.07 40 time and 25th percentile speed score (per Playerprofler.com), I wouldn’t count on these gaudy rushing stats to continue in the NFL.

Sam Howell possesses the raw skills and early production to possibly develop into a league-average to above-average starter for an NFL franchise. However, to hit the upper range of his outcomes, he’ll need a strong supporting cast around him and continued growth as a field processor.

Sam Howell Comp – more mobile Baker Mayfield

Mayfield is of a similar build with a comparable skill set and hand size. Like Howell, Mayfield had flashed promise early in his career when conditions were advantageous around him, only to falter later in his NFL journey.

Landing Spot and Dynasty Outlook

Sleepy Sam Howell fell into the black abyss that is the fifth round of the NFL Draft. While Carson Wentz could be a lost cause as an above-average or even serviceable quarterback, Howell will have considerable work to win a starting shot. Taylor Heinicke played at a level last season to where the Commanders were able to compete. While he’s definitely not their long-term answer either and an unrestricted free agent in 2023, he poses competition for Howell this year even if the team decided to bench Wentz. Because of the wretched draft capital and questionable path to playing time, Howell has considerably fallen down my rookie and dynasty ranks.

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