Last year, Javonte Williams was a massive surprise in fantasy, to everyone, including me. I was very bullish about his 2025 outlook, but I was hoping at best for a volume-driven RB2 residing in an explosive offense. Well, Williams crushed even my expectations as the RB11 in fantasy points per game, finishing with a career high 1,201 rushing yards and 13 total touchdowns. Among 49 qualifying backs, he ranked 16th in explosive run rate and third in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). His season was also a tale of two halves as he faded some down the back half of the year. In Weeks 1-8, he averaged 18.5 touches, 90.7 total yards, and scored nine total touchdowns as the RB8 in fantasy points per game. In Weeks 9-17, he averaged 17.4 touches, 76.5 total yards, and scored only four total touchdowns as the RB25 in fantasy points per game. Much of his fantasy stock drop was related to the fall in touchdown production, which can be simple variance. His deeper analytics back up that his play didn't fall off on a per-touch efficency standpoint. In Weeks 1-8, he had a 4.8% explosive run rate with an 11% missed tackle rate and 3.52 yards after contact per attempt. That yards after contact per attempt mark is otherworldly. In Weeks 8-17, he posted a 5.5% explosive run rate with a 13% missed tackle rate and 2.33 yards after contact per attempt. He improved his marks down the stretch in two of those three categories. If Williams can post production as he did over the first half of the 2025 season for an entire year, he is a locked-in top ten back with top-five upside. At his floor, he looks like a low-end RB1 or top 15 fantasy back.
by in FantasyJul 17, 2026