Davis Mills 2021 Production
| Team |
Rank |
Player |
CMP |
ATT |
PCT |
YDS |
Y/A |
TD |
INT |
ATT |
YDS |
TD |
G |
FPTS/G |
Per Game Rank |
| HOU |
29 |
Davis Mills |
263 |
394 |
66.8 |
2,664 |
6.8 |
16 |
10 |
18 |
44 |
0 |
13 |
12.8 |
35 |
Davis Mills Career Contextualization
Davis Mills played his college ball at Stanford, starting just 11 games from 2019 to 2020. The former Cardinal’s limited playing experience fell to the third round in a loaded 2021 quarterback class. The Houston Texans selected him 67th overall with hopes that he could fill their glaring hole at the quarterback position.
Veteran Tyrod Taylor opened the season as the starter but lasted just two games until going down with an injury. Mills was thrust into action and was less-than-stellar from the get-go. His four-interception game against the Buffalo Bills was a clear “welcome to the NFL” moment for the first-year signal-caller.
But give credit to Mills for bouncing back immensely against the New England Patriots the following week. He threw for 300-plus yards and three touchdowns.
Mills would eventually give the starting job back to Taylor upon his return to health, but the veteran did not last long in his second stint as the starter. He was benched in Week 13, and Davis started the remainder of the season. And he showed significant growth.
The Stanford product turned it on over the final five weeks of the 2021 season, finishing with a 9-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio while averaging a respectable 17.4 fantasy points per game.
His final passer rating from a clean pocket finished first among all rookie QBs. Mills also posted just as many 300-yard passing games (four) as Aaron Rodgers and all the other rookie QBs combined.
And for his final act, Mills fueled a 7-113-2 stat line for a 36-year-old Danny Amendola in Week 18 of the 2021 season.
Mills still has so much room for growth, considering he’s only started 22 games combined at the college and professional level. For perspective, Pittsburgh Steelers rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett has started 49 games over five years at the college level.
Current Situation
After receiving the nod from the new coaching staff, Davis Mills is projected to be the Houston Texans’ starter for the 2022 season. The team did not draft a quarterback, which greenlights Mills as the presumable starter. I say “presumably” because the Texans have been rumored to be in the market for Baker Mayfield or Jimmy Garoppolo, per Jeff Howe of the Athletic.
Texans’ GM has obvious ties to Garoppolo from his tenure in New England, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see a Jimmy G reunion in Houston.
But for now, Mills looks like QB1. And it’s hard not to view him as a screaming value based on how he finished last season and how his supporting cast has dramatically improved since a year ago.
The Texans invested in OL (Kenyon Green) and WR (John Metchie) in the NFL Draft. And he still has Brandin Cooks and second-year players Nico Collins and Brevin Jordan.
General Prediction for 2022 and Rest of Career
I hardly believe that Mills is a long-term answer at quarterback for any NFL franchise, but he has the chance to be a steady commodity in 2QB formats this season. If I am hurting at QB, he is definitely a player I would consider trading for, hoping that he will play out the whole season.
And there’s always the slim chance that if he takes a massive leap — not crazy for a 2nd-year quarterback in an improved situation — he can convince Houston that he is the guy. Becoming Kirk Cousins isn’t that outlandish for Mills.
Just keep in mind that’s not necessarily the most realistic outcome.
The Texans are armed with two first-round picks in the 2023 NFL Draft, so they have the capital to make a move for a quarterback should they choose to go in that direction.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.