Kadarius Toney 2021 Production

Career Contextualization

The New York Giants surprised many people when they selected Kadarius Toney with the 20th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Despite possessing the freakish athleticism you would see in the first round, the Florida wide receiver was a late breakout in terms of production. During his first three years in school, his contributions were minimal, amassing only 606 receiving yards through his junior season. He posted an impressive 70-984-10 as the primary beneficiary of quarterback Kyle Trask‘s breakout in his senior season, dramatically increasing his NFL profile.

Toney’s rookie season doesn’t look impressive on paper, but the Giants were so bad offensively that his 420 receiving yards were second-highest on the team. Team receiving leader Kenny Golladay played five more games than Toney and only out-gained him by 101 yards.

A chunk of Toney’s rookie season was spent on the sideline, playing in only nine games as he dealt with quad and oblique injuries. However, the standout portion of his season came in Weeks 4 and 5 in games against New Orleans and Dallas. He posted a staggering 16-276 line over those two weeks and looked tremendous.

With Golladay disappointing, Sterling Shepard only playing in seven games and Darius Slayton disappearing, Toney looked like the Giants’ best receiver in 2021.

Current Situation

It’s a new regime for the Giants in 2022, out go Dave Gettleman and Joe Judge, and in come Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll from Buffalo. But, as exciting as that may be for the future of the Giants, the underwhelming Daniel Jones is still the team’s starting quarterback.

Toney has been the center of recent trade rumors, but nothing came of them during the NFL Draft. These rumors are particularly notable since the regime that drafted Toney has departed. Does the new hierarchy value Toney as much as its predecessors? Only time will tell.

Joining Toney in the wide receiver room are the same crew from last year (Golladay, Shepard, Slayton) and the addition of 2022 second-round pick Wan’Dale Robinson. Barring a sizeable rebound from Golladay, Toney is still the most talented receiver on the roster.

General Prediction for 2022 and Rest of Career

The Giants will be bad again, and Toney is far from a safe bet to be the top target in 2022. He may have the most talent of the receivers, but the regime change and the frequent injuries in his rookie season are undeniable concerns.

Toney’s stock just for 2022 shouldn’t be very high. The Giants are not a team that will produce robust numbers in the passing game, and it’s an uninspiring yet crowded group of receivers there. Toney could lead the team in receiving with a total well under 1,000 yards. He is a flex option with the upside of providing a boom week at best.

Long-term, Toney is an intriguing piece for the Giants and fantasy football. When he was at his best, the film was jaw-dropping. His elusiveness, lateral agility and array of juke moves jump off the tape, showing a potential ceiling that would excite any football enthusiast. An inevitable future upgrade at quarterback for the Giants will boost Toney’s stock.

In terms of value, Toney is truly price-dependent. He hasn’t moved the needle enough in either direction for fantasy managers not to be able to pivot or acquire for a price they like. If you like buying low on toolsy young players that haven’t put it together yet, Toney could be your guy. On the contrary, if you like to sell young toolsy players because they didn’t produce as rookies, you can flip Toney and re-roll the dice on a 2022 rookie.

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