Alec Pierce is a former three-star prospect (per 247Sports.com) who was the 25th-ranked wide receiver in Illinois. Before attending Cincinnati, he had offers from the Air Force Academy, Army, Ball State and Bowling Green. Pierce played football, volleyball, and basketball and ran track in high school. So it’s not difficult to see his raw athletic talent with the way he blew up the NFL Scouting Combine. At 6-3, 208 pounds, he posted a 4.41 40-yard dash (90th percentile, per Playerprofiler.com), a 95th percentile speed score, 94th percentile burst score, and 96th percentile catch radius.
Pierce was regulated to special teams in 2018, seeing only one target on offense. However, he had his breakout season in 2019, leading the team in receiving yards (652) and seeing a 16.9 percent target share. In 2020, he gutted out six games while dealing with a nagging shoulder injury. Despite dealing with the ailment, he saw improvement across the board in his catch rate (70.8 percent), Yards per route run (2.46, per PFF), and yards after the catch per reception (4.4).
Alec Pierce is a former three-star prospect (per 247Sports.com) who was the 25th-ranked wide receiver in Illinois. Before attending Cincinnati, he had offers from the Air Force Academy, Army, Ball State and Bowling Green. Pierce played football, volleyball, and basketball and ran track in high school. So it’s not difficult to see his raw athletic talent with the way he blew up the NFL Scouting Combine. At 6-3, 208 pounds, he posted a 4.41 40-yard dash (90th percentile, per Playerprofiler.com), a 95th percentile speed score, 94th percentile burst score, and 96th percentile catch radius.
Pierce was regulated to special teams in 2018, seeing only one target on offense. However, he had his breakout season in 2019, leading the team in receiving yards (652) and seeing a 16.9 percent target share. In 2020, he gutted out six games while dealing with a nagging shoulder injury. Despite dealing with the ailment, he saw improvement across the board in his catch rate (70.8 percent), Yards per route run (2.46, per PFF), and yards after the catch per reception (4.4).
Pierce further asserted himself during his final season, stepping forward as Desmond Ridder‘s top option with a 21.2 percent target share and team-leading 884 receiving yards. With Cincinnati in the national spotlight with national title hopes, Pierce put himself firmly on the NFL Draft radar. He cemented this status with his immaculate combine theatrics.
He’ll still only be 22-years-old despite staying for his senior year. He concludes his time in Cincinnati with a 36th percentile college dominator, 78th percentile yards per reception (17.0), 56th percentile target share (21.2 percent), and 82nd percentile breakout age (19.3, per Playerprofiler.com). However, with a still-evolving skillset as a wide receiver, Pierce’s best days could still be ahead of him in the NFL.
Alec Pierce Draft Profile
| School |
Cincinnati |
| Height |
6’3″ |
| Weight |
208 |
| 40-yard dash |
4.41 |
| Age |
22 |
| Year in school |
Senior |
| Recruit stars* |
3 |
| 2022 NFL Draft prediction |
3rd Round |
* Recruit stars via 247Sports
Alec Pierce College Statistics
| Year |
Games |
Targets (target %) |
Receptions |
Receiving yards |
Yards per reception |
Catch rate |
Receiving touchdowns |
| 2019 |
12 |
64 (16.9%) |
37 |
652 |
17.6 |
57.8% |
2 |
| 2020 |
6 |
24 (8.1%) |
17 |
315 |
18.5 |
70.8% |
3 |
| 2021 |
14 |
85 (21.2%) |
52 |
884 |
17.0 |
61.0% |
8 |
Alec Pierce Dynasty Fantasy Analysis
Alec Pierce is an athletic dynamo. This shows up consistently in his game film. His speed and acceleration off the line are fantastic. He currently wins with footwork and raw speed. This isn’t to say that he doesn’t flash physical strength. He is adept at utilizing his upper-body strength and using his hands when pressed early. Pierce has highlight-reel moments when contorting his body in the air for back-shoulder catches. If he teams up with a more accurate quarterback (sorry, Desmond Ridder) in the NFL who’s willing to toss it up and let Pierce go get it, we’ll see his face regularly on SportsCenter reels.
|
Among FBS wide receivers with 50 or more targets (*Statistics via PFF):
|
| Year |
Formation alignment Slot / Wide |
Yards per route run (rank) |
| 2019 |
3.1% / 96.9% |
1.95 (133rd of 290) |
| 2020* |
18.5% / 80.0% |
2.46 (35th of 146) |
| 2021 |
14.0% / 84.7% |
2.38 (62nd of 251) |
*Only 24 targets
His Yards per route run was solid over his final two seasons but not spectacular. Despite his volume climbing, the dip in his final season is slightly disappointing, but it isn’t a reason to start picking out burial plots before the NFL Draft. These inconsistencies are baked into his estimated NFL Draft position, which will likely be reflected in his draft slot in dynasty rookie drafts and startups.
Pierce’s high collegiate yards per reception is an expression of his role in Cincinnati’s offense and also his route tree. He was the resident deep threat and was asked to run a more limited route tree. In his amazing work with Reception Perception, Matt Harmon concluded that nine routes, curls, and digs made up 55.8 percent of Pierce’s charted routes. Of those three routes, the nine was the only one in which he finished with a favorable success rate. Other short-area routes showed promise, but Pierce is a pure field stretcher at this juncture. However, with top-shelf athleticism and small-sample success in other areas, he has the upside to grow into a complete wide receiver who could demand a high-volume role in the NFL.
In addition to adding a more varied route portfolio to his game, Pierce also needs to work on incorporating more nuance into his routes. He wins with footwork and speed, but he can tap into his high ceiling by further integrating head fakes, pace variations, and more. Sticking with areas where Pierce can improve, he also needs to put his athleticism to better use after the catch.
Despite having crazy testing numbers, he only generated 3.8 yards after the catch per reception and a total of eight missed tackles forced (per PFF) in his four years at Cincinnati. While he deploys his physical acumen during routes and isn’t easily pushed off his line, we need to see this translate more to his work with the ball in his hands.
Pierce can step in and contribute from Day One as a deep threat. However, the top range of his outcomes comes into play if a team chooses to create mismatches with him as a big slot option and if he continues to expand his game.
Player Comp
Gabriel Davis (with better athleticism), with the ceiling to become Javon Walker in his prime.
Gabriel Davis has played both outside and inside with the Bills, excelling against man coverage in his short career. Pierce can operate as a team’s WR2/3 right now, with the talent to become a team’s No. 1 option should he continue to hone his game.
Landing Spot and Dynasty Outlook
The Colts are gearing up to throw the ball more with their quarterback upgrade in Matt Ryan. Alec Pierce fills a huge need for this franchise. Parris Campbell hasn’t been able to stay on the field despite his raw talent, and the franchise lost Zach Pascal in the offseason. Pierce is an athletic freak who will help stretch the field from Day 1. While his route tree was limited at Cincinnati, he has the raw talent to develop into a player that can contend with Michael Pittman for the team lead in targets yearly if he hits the upper range of his outcomes. His blend of athletic profile and surprising draft capital is worth taking a shot on aggressively in dynasty rookie drafts.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections – to our Trade Analyzer – which allows you to instantly find out if a trade offer benefits you or your opponent – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
