Over the last several years, advanced statistics have found a bigger home in both “real life” baseball and fantasy baseball. Just as MLB organizations want to evaluate all of the available data in order to gain whatever edge they can, fantasy managers are trying to do the same thing. Some of the most valuable statistics are so-called “expected statistics” that attempt to “normalize” the data by removing certain factors that are outside of a player’s control.
For pitchers, there are a handful of expected numbers that attempt to normalize ERA. A pitcher’s ERA can be a bit fluky, especially in smaller sample sizes, and expected statistics like xERA, FIP, xFIP, and SIERA attempt to quantify a pitcher’s true performance by eliminating factors the pitcher can’t control.
Below are the ERA, xERA, FIP, xFIP, and SIERA numbers for every qualifying pitcher through today’s date.
| Name | Team | ERA | xERA | FIP | xFIP | SIERA |
| Pablo Lopez | MIA | 1.05 | 2.34 | 2.15 | 2.64 | 2.77 |
| Zac Gallen | ARI | 1.05 | 1.85 | 2.25 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
| Miles Mikolas | STL | 1.49 | 2.55 | 2.98 | 3.74 | 3.78 |
| Justin Verlander | HOU | 1.55 | 2.80 | 3.15 | 3.26 | 3.15 |
| Paul Blackburn | OAK | 1.67 | 2.93 | 2.33 | 2.88 | 3.19 |
| Merrill Kelly | ARI | 1.71 | 3.38 | 2.48 | 3.39 | 3.59 |
| Alek Manoah | TOR | 1.75 | 2.47 | 3.26 | 3.72 | 3.44 |
| Corbin Burnes | MIL | 1.77 | 2.87 | 2.99 | 2.38 | 2.29 |
| Carlos Rodon | SFG | 1.80 | 2.01 | 1.21 | 2.37 | 2.25 |
| Joe Musgrove | SDP | 2.08 | 2.45 | 2.40 | 2.72 | 2.71 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 2.10 | 2.32 | 2.57 | 3.83 | 3.82 |
| Logan Gilbert | SEA | 2.13 | 3.55 | 3.12 | 3.34 | 3.43 |
| Chris Bassitt | NYM | 2.34 | 2.99 | 3.38 | 3.53 | 3.22 |
| Kevin Gausman | TOR | 2.40 | 2.49 | 0.86 | 2.12 | 2.21 |
| Shane McClanahan | TBR | 2.52 | 2.47 | 2.67 | 1.66 | 1.86 |
| Eric Lauer | MIL | 2.60 | 3.22 | 3.61 | 2.51 | 2.33 |
| Max Scherzer | NYM | 2.66 | 2.70 | 3.05 | 2.99 | 2.65 |
| Brad Keller | KCR | 2.70 | 3.33 | 4.08 | 3.95 | 4.22 |
| Bruce Zimmermann | BAL | 2.72 | 4.14 | 3.34 | 3.76 | 3.76 |
| Sandy Alcantara | MIA | 2.74 | 2.95 | 4.08 | 4.00 | 4.22 |
| Walker Buehler | LAD | 2.81 | 3.67 | 3.24 | 3.70 | 3.77 |
| Chad Kuhl | COL | 2.88 | 3.08 | 3.56 | 3.68 | 3.92 |
| Framber Valdez | HOU | 2.93 | 3.22 | 3.35 | 3.29 | 3.28 |
| Gerrit Cole | NYY | 2.95 | 3.17 | 3.45 | 2.82 | 2.94 |
| Julio Urias | LAD | 3.00 | 3.08 | 4.96 | 4.34 | 4.26 |
| Kyle Wright | ATL | 3.03 | 3.22 | 2.73 | 3.10 | 3.07 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 3.06 | 3.52 | 3.60 | 3.76 | 3.70 |
| Dakota Hudson | STL | 3.06 | 5.34 | 5.08 | 4.83 | 5.01 |
| Max Fried | ATL | 3.14 | 3.47 | 2.84 | 2.67 | 2.81 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | BOS | 3.15 | 4.23 | 4.55 | 3.04 | 3.04 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 3.18 | 3.60 | 3.39 | 3.62 | 3.86 |
| Carlos Carrasco | NYM | 3.19 | 3.31 | 3.04 | 3.30 | 3.35 |
| Logan Webb | SFG | 3.48 | 3.22 | 2.95 | 3.59 | 3.76 |
| Zack Greinke | KCR | 3.52 | 5.27 | 3.46 | 4.72 | 4.99 |
| Dylan Cease | CHW | 3.55 | 2.00 | 2.36 | 2.54 | 2.53 |
| Zach Davies | ARI | 3.57 | 3.64 | 3.92 | 4.07 | 4.38 |
| Shane Bieber | CLE | 3.72 | 4.34 | 3.61 | 3.70 | 3.80 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | DET | 3.72 | 3.55 | 3.87 | 4.13 | 4.21 |
| Ranger Suarez | PHI | 3.72 | 4.43 | 4.53 | 4.08 | 4.28 |
| Sean Manaea | SDP | 3.77 | 3.24 | 3.29 | 3.22 | 3.17 |
| Frankie Montas | OAK | 3.77 | 2.97 | 3.63 | 3.32 | 3.43 |
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 3.83 | 2.47 | 3.47 | 2.64 | 2.54 |
| Cal Quantrill | CLE | 3.93 | 4.55 | 4.11 | 4.93 | 5.23 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 4.03 | 4.70 | 4.65 | 4.59 | 4.55 |
| Dane Dunning | TEX | 4.06 | 4.01 | 3.31 | 3.28 | 3.53 |
| Kyle Gibson | PHI | 4.10 | 3.50 | 3.95 | 3.68 | 3.95 |
| Robbie Ray | SEA | 4.22 | 3.62 | 4.15 | 3.91 | 3.84 |
| Chris Flexen | SEA | 4.24 | 5.14 | 4.62 | 4.54 | 4.64 |
| Josiah Gray | WSN | 4.34 | 4.88 | 5.43 | 4.41 | 4.26 |
| Austin Gomber | COL | 4.36 | 4.37 | 3.85 | 3.50 | 3.73 |
| Jordan Lyles | BAL | 4.38 | 4.85 | 4.46 | 4.17 | 4.26 |
| Yu Darvish | SDP | 4.62 | 3.90 | 3.82 | 4.04 | 4.03 |
| Zach Plesac | CLE | 4.68 | 5.73 | 4.90 | 4.77 | 4.83 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 4.91 | 4.58 | 4.27 | 4.07 | 4.17 |
| Charlie Morton | ATL | 4.93 | 4.61 | 4.31 | 4.82 | 4.57 |
| Nick Pivetta | BOS | 5.08 | 5.41 | 4.04 | 4.02 | 4.08 |
| Jose Berrios | TOR | 5.82 | 7.34 | 5.15 | 4.80 | 4.74 |
| Tyler Mahle | CIN | 5.89 | 3.55 | 3.48 | 4.14 | 4.05 |
| German Marquez | COL | 6.16 | 4.85 | 4.78 | 3.56 | 3.76 |
Since I can’t help myself and am a total nerd, I created my own metric for expected pitching statistics. I call it MAHERA (clever, I know), and it’s a weighted arithmetic mean of ERA, xERA, FIP, xFIP, and SIERA. Note that, as I just mentioned, it does include a pitcher’s actual ERA (although it is weighed less than the other four numbers) and not only the expected numbers. The table below is sortable and searchable and includes all of the aforementioned numbers. The default sorting is by MAHERA.
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Mike Maher is an editor and content manager at FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive, follow him on Twitter @MikeMaher, and visit his Philadelphia Eagles blog, The Birds Blitz.